摘要:

AbstractThe economic crisis of the 1980s has revived interest in the economic long wave or Kondratiev cycle. Since 1975 the System Dynamics National Model has been the vehicle for the development of a dynamic, endogenous, integrated theory of the economic long wave. This paper describes the integrated theory that has now emerged from extensive analysis of the full National Model and from simple models. Simulations of the model are presented to show the wide range of empirical evidence accounted for by the model, including many of the symptoms of the present economic crisis. In particular, the theory suggests that the long wave arises from the interaction of two fundamental facets of modern industrial economies. First, firms contain inherently oscillatory structures. Second, self‐reinforcing processes amplify the instability. The relative strengths of these mechanisms and the amplification of the long wave through their interactions are discussed, as are the linkages of the longwave theory of innovation, technological progress, social innovation, and political value chang

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020202

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRural credit schemes have formed an essential part of the rural development programs implemented in the developing countries over the past few decades, although a high default rate has made it difficult to continue to support them. This paper analyzes the high loan default rate in the rural areas of Thailand and attributes the problem to the distribution pattern of land ownership. The availability of credit may help to fuel investments into farm inputs which increase land productivity. However, when most of the land is absentee‐owned, a large share of the benefits of improved productivity is siphoned away by the landlords while the farmers are left with the responsibility of servicing the loan. Since the farmers' financial capacity is limited, a high rate of loan repayment default results. The analysis of the paper is based on a system dynamics model of a dual rural economic system, often encountered in the developing countries. It is shown that the lack of credit facilities is not a fundamental impediment to rural developmen

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020203

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractConsidering a simple production system, this paper presents an alternative method based on system dynamics for solving economic and managerial optimal control problems. Such an approach can be helpful in cases where the application of the mathematical optimal control theory is impossible or too laborious for planners or decision makers.

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020204

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractNotes and Insightsis a forum for discussion and debate about current issues in the philosophy and application of the system dynamics approach, and a marketplace for the exchange of information about current research, policy issues, and teaching experiences. Manuscripts treating material particularly suited to presentation in short form (less than 2,000 words) should be sent to Erich Zahn, Betriebswirtschaftliches Institut, Universität Stuttgart, Herdweg 23, D‐7000 Stuttgart 1, West Germa

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020205

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020206

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractFounded in the mid‐1950s, the field of system dynamics has intellectual roots reaching much further into the past. The Archives section of theReviewseeks to publish material from that past which can contribute to current theory and practice. The section welcomes previously unpublished but deserving system dynamics work, classics from past system dynamics literature that should receive renewed attention, and previously published articles from other disciplines of particular significance to current system dynamicists. Contributions emphasizing the philosophy and theory of model building, validation, implementation, education, and generic structures are particularly encouraged. Submissions may range in length from notes to main articles but may be edited. Send suggested material, together with a brief introduction placing it in historical and current contexts, to John D. Sterman, System Dynamics Group, M.I.T. E40‐294, Cambridge, MA 02139, U.

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020207

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis section of theSystem Dynamics Reviewis an eclectic source of information on items of interest to the system dynamics community. Conferences, articles, books, dissertations, speeches, software and hardware products, and teaching materials will be mentioned in this space. The purpose of the section is to provide summaries to help the system dynamics community keep abreast of recent progress related to the field and to anticipate important future events. Submissions covering a wide range of areas and information of possible interest to system dynamicists are encouraged, and should be sent to R. Joel Rahn, Faculté des Sciences de l'Administration, Université Laval, Ste. Foy, Quebec, G1K 7P4, Canad

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020208

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020209

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020210

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260020211

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY