摘要:

AbstractThe paper describes a successful application of Bayesian decision analysis to the operation of the Lake Kariba hydropower system. This management problem is complicated by the high uncertainty of the inflow process, multiple and conflicting objectives and the influence of time on some of the parameters in the management task. Inflows to the reservoir are forecast through dynamic linear models. Managerial preferences are modelled through a multiattribute utility function. Since the solution of the exact model is computationally too demanding, a heuristic method is applied to find a feasible control strategy. A comparison with results obtained by methods used previously demonstrates the superiority of the methodology presented here.

ISSN:1057-9214    

DOI:10.1002/mcda.4020040402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper we study a multiple‐objective dispersion problem from an efficient solution and value function perspective. A general fundamental theorem on non‐dominance is given and a polar co‐ordinate elimination heuristic is given for the case of R2. Some general results are given for the existence of a linearly weighted objective function whose maximal value will give a most preferred solution, for convex or concave value functions, and a heuristic is developed for the case where these conditions do not

ISSN:1057-9214    

DOI:10.1002/mcda.4020040403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe problem of uncertainty in the outcome of decisions has tended to be glossed over by many MCDM methods, with the exception of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT). MAUT does, however, require quite complicated preference elicitations and knowledge of the full multivariate distribution of outcomes. Results from a series of simulation studies indicate that the preference orderings of MAUT are only minimally changed when using a simple additive aggregation of marginal utilities, especially in relation to the natural imprecisions inherent in preference elicitation. It is shown in the simulations that by far the most critical aspect of multicriteria decision analysis under uncertainty is not the form of aggregation, but the correct elicitation of marginal utilities which properly represent decision maker preferences over gambles. We relate the results obtained here to other results on the approximation of distributions by three‐ or five‐point discrete distributions, and suggest that the use of deterministic MCDM methods of any form (not necessarily value function techniques), applied to an extended formulation in which each criterion measure is repeated for three or five ‘scenarios’, can be ju

ISSN:1057-9214    

DOI:10.1002/mcda.4020040404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1057-9214    

DOI:10.1002/mcda.4020040405

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1057-9214    

DOI:10.1002/mcda.4020040401

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY