摘要:

ABSTRACTAlternative decision rules for aggregate production scheduling are specified here under chance‐constrained sales and compared with the HMMS model. These rules are evaluated for their performance on the basis of simulated data on sales and it is found that the linear decision rules of the HMMS model can be considerably improve

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01099.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper considers the effects of multicollinearity on the multiple coefficient of determination and on the standard errors of the estimated regression coefficients. Limiting results are well known for these problems, and some particular cases have been investigated. However, the limiting cases do not explain the nonmonotonic relationships that have been observed in practice. This paper explores these relationships and attempts to provide a unifying graphical explanation that includes the previous results as special cases. Implications for stepwise regression and for the interpretation of any multiple regression involving multicollinear independent variables are discussed.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01100.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper is a tutorial on axiomatic conjoint measurement. It summarizes recent developments, illustrates the use of these developments in investigating ordinal data relations, relates axiomatic and numerical scaling procedures, describes previous applications of conjoint measurement, and suggests future applications in the decision sciences. Emphasis is placed on the contributions axiomatic conjoint measurement could make to the analyses of ordinal data structures.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01101.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTA decision rule for selecting a one‐sided or two‐sided alternative for a standard hypothesis test is developed. Using a prior distribution of the parameter to be tested, the alternative is chosen which maximizes expected power. The test of a binomial parameter is presented to illustrate the met

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01102.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper provides a methodology for investigating whether different groups perceived as being similar can be treated as homogeneous and therefore can be effectively combined for Multiple Discriminant Analysis purposes. The consequences of combining heterogeneous groups are explored.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01103.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the effect of product endorsement claims on a consumer's decision making processes. A simulated endorsement claim was made for a product after which a consumer was presented with the product. Endorsements tested were the three most common types in use: celebrity, expert, and typical consumer, with two control groups for experimental design. Three scales of measurement were used to assess the effect of the endorsement: a consumer's intent to purchase, his overall attitude towards the product, and his expected price of the product. The results show the strength of celebrity and typical consumer endorsers. They also show that the endorser effect is dramatically weaker than hypothesized. The Lavidge‐Steiner hierarchy of advertising effects model is introduced in an attempt to explain this phenomenon. Guidelines for further research are provide

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01104.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTFaced with increasing pressures on environmental issues, municipal and industrial planners must incorporate changing technology into planning processes. Conventional approaches to wastewater treatment plant design severely limit the ability of the designer to evaluate alternative design configurations. This paper suggests that computer simulation techniques can provide solutions to many of the problems which confront a designer. A simulation model of a hypothetical sewage treatment plant is described, and some of the design trade‐offs that can be evaluated with the model are presente

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01105.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis report presents an application of quantitative decision‐analytic techniques to consider an opportunity for capital investment in a new product.Decision analysis is a well‐established technique for evaluating major decisions in which substantial resources and time are available for the analysis and the problem is definitely formulated at the outset. This case study, however, illustrates how decision‐analytic techniques can be used on‐line to improve decision making in a situation in which time and resources are limited, and the manager's perception of the problem changes in response to feedback from the analysis.The basic decision problem was whether or not the AIL division of Cutler‐Hammer, Incorporated should purchase a six‐month option on a flight‐safety system patent. The president of AIL had only a few weeks in which to make a decision.The analytic approach focused on a probabilistic discounted earnings model. This model was refined over a two‐week period through a sequence of iterations which incorporated the results of both direct and indirect assessments of probabilities and values.The analysis affected the company's decision process by providing a vehicle for structuring the ongoing communication between AIL's president and his advisors, and by focusing their attention on the most important issues. In the end, the analysis facilitated a unanimous decision from the decision‐making group not to purchase the option, but to consider participating in the license as a subcontractor at a later date. This strategy had not been conside

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01106.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTA large body of the published research in financial accounting provides strong and persuasive evidence on the association between accounting numbers and stock prices but falls short of drawing any implications about accounting policies on measurements or on reporting. Attempting to go beyond association the author of this paper provides an application of a possible methodology for evaluating materiality of accounting measurements in a given decision situation. The methodology employs discriminant analysis in which the sensitivity of the discriminating model to the changes in mean earnings per share provides a decisions reaction scale and shows that a change in mean earnings per share equal to or less than 10% does not significantly affect the prediction. The validity of the results would depend on the correspondence between this model and the behavior of decision‐makers. However, in situations such as the one chosen here, in which an investor's decision‐making process cannot be normatively structured, appropriate statistical methods effectively can be utilized to describe the proc

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01107.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe cross‐lag correlation method has gained increased use in recent years as a technique which can be used to evaluate causality in longitudinal behavioral research. However, the effect of selecting an incorrect time‐lag has remained largely unexplored. This research reports the results of a computer simulation designed to evaluate what happens to the cross‐lag correlation under different time‐lags. The results of the simulation indicate that the cross‐lag method is relatively insensitive to errors in the selection of the time‐lag. Nevertheless, it is better to err on the “early” side than on the “late” side. A research design is suggested for further empirical investigation of the effect of the

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01108.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY