摘要:

ABSTRACTIn decision theory the concept denoted variously as “risk aversion increment” or “risk premium” has not been fully exploited, although it is neither new nor complex. In this paper we will show how the concept of the risk aversion increment can be used for developing an alternative to the explicit use of the utility function. For most people the use of a risk aversion increment provides a better conceptual reference than does the use of a utility function.To illustrate the usefulness of the concept as a basis for gaining insight into problem statements and their analysis, the following applications are developed:1) general results for the exponential utility function. 2) estimation of utility functions. 3) general results for various combinations of utility functions and probability distributions. 4) use in sequential decisions. 5) application in the theory of inc

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01448.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTFormal education equips the modern decision scientist with an ample bag of mathematical tools. Among these are a wide variety of models, supplemented by techniques for creating new models and augmenting old ones. The purpose of a model, however, is not to serve only as a classroom exercise, but, rather, to represent reality in mathematical terms. Therefore, the performance of a model under real‐life conditions determines its success or failure.In this paper, the author examines the characteristics of successful models, concentrating on the potential pitfalls in both the formulation and implementation stages. Finally, the author discusses the implications of his views for business schools, especially in terms of the improvements in course requirements and teaching techniques which are needed to prepare students of quantitative methods for careers as effective decision scientist

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01449.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis study explores two important characteristics of admissions applications to an M.B.A. and M.P.A. program: thetimingof applications throughout the year preceding entrance, and thewithdrawal rateby students whose applications have been accepted. Specifically, for the years 1961 through 1967, the aggregate patterns of timing and withdrawals (across all applications) are compared to the corresponding data for four groups of applications, ranging from low quality to high quality. (Quality is measured in terms of a first‐year predicted grade point average, and is estimated by a linear regression equation using the applicant's total ATGSB score and his undergraduate grade point average.) The results are in the expected directions: “better” students tend to apply earlier, and also have a higher tendency to withdraw after their applications have been accepted. Potential usefulness of the results in forecasting total applications and estimating withdrawal rates is exp

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01450.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the search aspect of decision making. An experiment was conducted to assess the amount of information utilized by subjects prior to committing themselves to a choice. By construing the information environment in the form of a maze and measuring “transmitted” information according to the Shannon‐Weaver logarithmic metric, the power of subjects' search heuristics was ass

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01451.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn recent years, decision making based on systematic analysis has been greatly emphasized. Yet, decision analysis is often carried out without analyzing the limitations of certain quantitative techniques. This paper presents the concept, solution method, and application potential of goal programming which eliminates many limitations of conventional linear optimization models.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01452.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTRecent work in demand forecasting has been done on a variation of exponential smoothing, which has been called a response surface. This response surface is analyzed, and an attempt is made to specify the nature of the sampling distributions involved. Then the response surface is compared to the basic single exponential smoothing forecast using actual demand data to see if it is a significantly better forecast.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01453.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTGeometric programming is a mathematical programming technique that is designed to determine the constrained minimum value of a generalized polynomial objective function. To date, most applications of the technique have been restricted to certain classes of engineering problems.This paper presents a brief summary of geometric programming and then illustrates its application to managerial problems by applying it to three well‐known inventory model

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01454.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe problem of scheduling service activities and variable tasks has traditionally been solved subjectively. The lack of objective approaches has been due to the absence of formal standards and delay costs and by the high cost of examination and measurement. Some recent developments in work measurement concepts may permit the development of more objective standards, which when used in conjunction with scientific methodology such as waiting line theory, make possible objective scheduling of the variable service type activity.The work of a salesperson in a retail store provides an example of both the variable service type activity and the waiting line problem. The manager attempts to balance the cost of service facilities (sales personnel) against the cost of a waiting line (customer ill will). The necessary data inputs for the waiting line model were obtained from field studies by means of work sampling. Computer simulation was then utilized to study various sized sales forces in an attempt to determine the most economical staff allocation.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01455.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe schedule, length, and number of class meetings have tended to be dictated by tradition, space availability, and instructor convenience. A significant factor which must receive attention is the assimilation time of the student. With the increased emphasis on quantitative analysis as well as the expansion of the boundaries of course content, the ability of the student to successfully absorb and digest the material must be considered. The authors have statistically studied assimilation time as a performance factor in a mathematically‐oriented course. Their conclusions indicate that the length and number of class meetings can be modified to a degree with equifinality, but administrators and instructors should empirically verify the best mix for their specific need

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01456.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn order to bring home to management science students a proper overview of the field, the author undertakes the investigation of real world problems using the methods of systems analysis and operations research. This paper will describe the results of one such investigation. In addition to describing the classroom experiment, a model for speculative stock market investment will be developed. Finally, a simulation model for reviewing investor performance will be outlined.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb01457.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY