摘要:

AbstractConsider a time series for which, over a finite interval, there is a model that provides an adequate forecast of the series. Without loss of genality one can take the series over this period of time to have meanOand variance s̀2. At some time the underlying process changes to some other model. The previous model no longer produces errors with mean zero. It is assumed, however, that the variance remains s̀2. The problem considered here is to detect the change in the process as quickly as possible after it happens. The technique is a computationally feasible extension of Wald's [14] sequential analysis, to develop a parabolic mask centered over the most recent cumulative sum (“cusum”) of the forecast errors. Detection occurs when any previous point in the series of cusums lies outside the parabola. The technique is illustrated by an APL program applied to the logarithms of weekly changes in closing prices for IBM common stock on the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1968

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00891.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article reports the formulation and results of a multiple equation econometric model to relate retail sales by brand and package size to retail promotional variables for a branded, frequently purchased grocery product. Primary emphasis is placed on the formulation of the model as opposed to the results obtained from its use.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00892.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe demand for increased public protection has become a major public issue of our times. The usual American response of increased resources has been applied but has had less than the desired effects. This paper analyzes the existing production factors in the provision of policing services in terms of the efficiency with which these services are delivered. The efficiency analysis occurs on a number of levels: (1) the use of existing resources, (2) alternative allocation at the existing resource level, (3) alternative technologies, and (4) the tasks and services which should be undertaken. The effects and implications of exogenous changes upon crime and policing services are considered and the problems and needs for change in the production factors for policing services are presented.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00893.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper linear production functions with highly correlated independent variables are estimated. Because many production processes require the use of inputs in fixed proportions, multicolinearity is usually a serious problem. This is usually the case when one attempts to estimate a linear or Cobb‐Douglass (in log linear form) production function.Estimates of the marginal products of a linear production function are obtained by employing the first order conditions of the output maximizing solution given a cost constraint. Parameter estimates are determined for the case where the input costs are constants. The general case, where the input prices are functions of utilization levels, is delineate

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00894.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractPERT, as an aid in planning for project managers, has been widely accepted, but as yet there appears to be a wide gap between the user's apparent impression of the underlying assumptions and the theoretical assumptions. This paper points out some of the more common misconceptions and their implications upon the total project. The Beta distribution as the underlying probability distribution is evaluated as to first, the overall effects of the inherent errors that are imposed by the basic PERT assumptions, and second, the effects, from a probability distribution viewpoint, of some of the more common PERT misconceptions. Finally, several alternatives to the basic PERT methodology are explored, both from the theoretical and practical viewpoints.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00895.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractAbstractIn this paper, we devise a cost allocation matrix and employ it to estimate the average input (net of capital) cost to the University of South Carolina of producing various degrees. The end product of our technique permits a statement of the comparative input costs of producing degrees from each of the several product (degree‐granting) divisions within the university. These cost estimates should be useful to administrators concerned with establishing tuition rates.Although our data are for a particular university, factor inputs used by this university for transmitting knowledge are taken from regional, national and international markets. Curricula for similar degrees in different universities are similar in composition. Hence, our study should have general applicabilit

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00896.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis short paper deals with some of the difficulties which have been found in applying the effective unit concept of estimating the Poisson distribution in order to forecast demand in a major industry. It points to two special cases in which the common formulation produces misleading results, discusses the frequency with which these two special cases could be expected to occur based on this one major industry, and proposes some pragmatic solutions to the problems resulting.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00897.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00898.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1971.tb00899.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY