摘要:

ABSTRACTWe use the analytic hierarchy process to analyze the role of subjective factors in decision making as illustrated in the Iran rescue operation. Essentially, we show that a decision maker and that decision maker's advisors may differ in their estimates on whether an action should or should not be taken depending on what intangible factors the leader holds as personally important, factors that the others would not necessarily include in their thinking‐a serious point for which we provide a particularly effective methodolog

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00142.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis study examined the comparative effectiveness of four inquiry methods on a financial prediction task. Inquiry methods included the expert (E), devil's advocate (DA), and dialectical inquiry (DI) techniques as well as a combined devil's advocate‐dialectical inquiry (DADI) technique. Also, the moderating effects of ambiguity tolerance were considered. Results indicated that when the state of the world was opposite to the assumptions underlying a plan, the DA, DI, and DADI approaches were all superior to the E approach. Further, for high ambiguity‐tolerance subjects, the DA and DADI approaches led to significantly better prediction performance than the E approach, and the superiority of the DADI approach over the DI approach was marginally significant. Results suggest that decision makers' levels of ambiguity tolerance should be considered before recommending their use of either the DA or DADI approach as an ill‐structured decision‐mak

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00143.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00144.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn this paper the problem of conscious motivational bias in the assessment of subjective predictive probability distributions is explored. The primary purpose of this research is to discover how subjects express their bias. Results of an experiment are reported in which subjective distributions were assessed by subjects, first in the absence of a biasing incentive and then in the presence of an incentive to bias upward coupled with an incentive to be “credible.” In the biased task, subjects reported manipulating up to five characteristics of their distribution, such as location, shape, and dispersion. Furthermore, subjects reported using combinations of the characteristics strategically. Dominant strategies included shifting the mode upward and redistributing probability to the left, shifting the mode upward a small amount and redistributing probability to the right, and shifting the mode upward and tightening the distribution. The location of the mode was mentioned first by nearly all subjects, suggesting that they first locate their biased distribution and then manipulate other characteristics to express their bias, need for credibility, and other conce

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00145.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe expected geometric mean has been shown to be a valuable criterion in ranking portfolios of assets. For example, under certain conditions the maximum expected geometric‐mean portfolio minimizes the expected time to amass a fixed level of wealth as wealth becomes “large.” This paper develops a simple algorithm for obtaining such portfolios when portfolio returns are assumed to be lognormally distributed. The risk‐return characteristics of portfolios are derived and illustrated using data from a subset of stocks found on the New York Stock E

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00146.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a successful computer‐based approach to scheduling courier vehicles for the check collection system in multibranch commercial banks. The approach has been adopted by six large banks in the United States and has achieved dramatic cost savings at several of these banks.This paper begins by describing the bank courier problem and reviewing several approaches to the problem that have been proposed in the literature. A practical, computer‐based approach to the bank courier problem is then presented. Finally, implementation experience at several banks is overvie

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00147.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe performance evaluation of computer systems as they impact on final user requirements for services is a complex task. A management‐oriented approach to the issue based on conventional economic theory was described in a previous report as an outgrowth of a joint university‐industry research project. In this sequel we report our experience in estimating, testing, and applying this conceptual mo

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00148.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe determination of reasonable compensation is one of the most frequently contested issues between the taxpayer and the IRS. The major purpose of this study is to develop a multiple regression model to predict accurately the amount of compensation allowed by the Tax Court as a percent of the amount in dispute between the taxpayer and the IRS. In general, the taxpayer receives favorable treatment in Tax Court when contesting unreasonable compensation payments. The multiple regression model, developed using a stepwise procedure, is a good predictor of the compensation allowed by the court. The overall results have important implications for developing taxpayers' appeal strategies.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00149.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe application of optimization techniques in digital simulation experiments is frequently complicated by the presence of large experimental error variances. Two of the more widely accepted design strategies for the resolution of this problem include the assignment of common pseudorandom number streams and the assignment of antithetic pseudorandom number streams to the experimental points. When considered separately, however, each of these variance‐reduction procedures has rather restrictive limitations. This paper examines the simultaneous use of these two techniques as a variance‐reduction strategy in response surface methodology (RSM) analysis of simulation models. A simulation of an inventory system is used to illustrate the application and benefits of this assignment procedure, as well as the basic components of an RSM analy

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00150.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn the previous paper, Cooley and Houck [1] examined the simultaneous use of common and antithetic random number streams as a variance‐reduction strategy for simulation studies employing response surface methodology (RSM). Our paper supplements their work and further explores pseudorandom number assignments in response surface designs. Specifically, an alternative strategy for assigning pseudorandom numbers is proposed; this strategy is more efficient than that given by Cooley and Houck, especially when more than two factors are involve

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00151.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY