摘要:

ABSTRACTThis article examines the potential for synergy between decision support systems (DSS) and expert systems research. Three predominant research traditions in DSS (applications, design, and technology) are examined and used as a basis to identify ways in which expert systems and DSS research interrelate. A range of emerging trends in DSS research that focus on these commonalities is discussed.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01529.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTDecision support systems (DSSs) are more complex than most other traditional decision‐aid systems. For what types of problems are they more effective, and what design characteristics make them more effective? The laboratory experiment reported here examined the effect of three design characteristics of these systems in the context of decision makers faced with ill‐structured problems. The characteristics were presence or absence of decision‐aid heuristics, degree of interaction between the user and the system, and whether or not the system was computerized. The dependent variables were (1) quality of user performance, (2) user productivity of ideas, (3) user confidence in the quality of his/her performance, (4) user satisfaction with the decision aid or support system, (5) changes in user attitude toward the problem addressed, and (6) changes in user attitude toward computers.Use of heuristics and increased interaction had positive effects on decision quality, user productivity, and attitude toward computers; they had negative effects on user confidence, satisfaction, and attitude toward the problem addressed. Whether or not the system was computerized did not have a significant effect on any dependent variable. The findings concerning negative effects, in particular, suggest the need for research on the design of heuristics for addressing ill‐structured problems—heuristics that will deliver the positive but not the negative effects observed in this study. The findings also suggest the need for research on how to benefit from computers in the context of solving ill‐structur

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01530.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTA knowledge‐based system supporting managerial problem diagnosis is described. The system provides the capability to monitor values of selected variables for problem situations. When problems are located, a list of problem symptoms is delivered to a problem processor for structuring and diagnosis. Problem structuring is based on a combination of concepts from expert systems and structural modeling. User assertions about cause‐effect relationships between pairs of variables are maintained in a semantic network. Problem diagnosis uses the relationships in the semantic network to construct causation trees, the branches of which represent potential explanations of the problem symptoms. Mathematical models are constructed based on causation‐tree branches, and values from the data base are used to test whether the model confirms the diagnosis. If so, the source of the problem has been located and it is then up to the user to resolve the problem. If the model fails to explain the problem, the model apparently is deficient and the user may perform “what if…” type scenarios in attempts to improve the model and search for problem causes. Realistic applications in the accounting and health care areas ar

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01531.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTExpert systems offer promise for decision‐making support in stressful circumstances such as those that occur when law enforcement officials respond to hostage‐taking incidents. These are life‐or‐death situations in which the costs of decision error are enormous.This paper reports on an expert system being developed and tested to aid police decision makers in hostage‐taking incidents. Knowledge is represented by rules embedded in an incident‐based decision‐tree network. Four different decision makers who have similar but distinct information needs are supported and their efforts are coordinated by the system, which must function in real time as the crisis unfolds. Clear, concise, highly focused dialogue is required at the user interface since frequently only seconds are available in which to make a decision and

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01532.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTAn artificial intelligence‐based rule‐induction approach to the analysis of stock market prediction is presented. A single investment analyst was used as the expert for this study. Predicting intermediate fluctuations in the movement of the market for nonconservative investors was selected as the decision to analyze. Commercially available rule‐induction software was used to generate rules that predicted the market calls of the market analyst and the actual movements of the market. Rules predicting actual market movement performed better than rules predicting the analyst's calls and better than the analyst himself. Such an approach may prove useful in designing a decision support system for market analysts or in improving the decision‐making processes of such analysts. The dynamic nature of the stock market represents a substantially different decision environment than those previously analyzed by learning‐from‐example (LFE) techniques. This study provides insights into the limits and applications of LFE

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01533.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper discusses two principles that have become increasingly important in the design of knowledge‐based systems: domain‐specific knowledge used to support opportunistic reasoning and hierarchical organization structure used to control and coordinate problem‐solving activity. We propose a design framework that embodies these two principles and describe how this framework has been used to develop a knowledge‐based job‐shop scheduling system. This system, called OPIS 0, has undergone limited testing in an experimental environment modeled after an actual job shop. Its performance has been very good compared to ISIS and to the more traditional approach of constructing a schedule by dispatching jobs using the COVERT priority rule. The resulting design also shows potential for use in a decision sup

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01534.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThere currently is no widely accepted design framework for building expert systems. Knowledge engineers describe the process in terms of a set of heuristics or as a series of phases. Most paradigms are based on post‐development reflections. This paper explores an expert‐based system constructed using decision support system design techniques. An actual system in experimental use at the Department of Entomology, Oregon State University, was designed using the approach presented. The system, Integrated Pest Management Assistant (IPMA), will be used by extension agents to help orchard owners make decisions regarding pear tree pest infestations and to offer remedial strategies for eradicating potentially destructive inse

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01535.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper proposes a set of definitions for the concepts “validation” and “assessment” applied to expert systems (ESs). It develops a framework for this validation and demonstrates the framework on existing accounting and auditing ESs to elicit some of the research issues involved in ES validation.Validation is critical to the design and implementation of decision‐making ESs. In a setting where objectivity is sought and variance is avoided, validation ascertains what a system knows, knows incorrectly, or does not know. Validation ascertains the system's level of expertise and investigates the theoretical basis on which the system is based. It evaluates the reliability of decisions made by the system.The validation framework developed in this paper is research methods. It is designed to reflect the unique aspects of ESs (in contrast to other types of computer programs) and can be used by ES developers as a basis from which to perform validation and by researchers as a framework to elicit research issues in v

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01536.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTDecision Support Systems (DSSs) originally were proposed as interactive problem‐solving vehicles through which models and analytical techniques could be made available to decision makers. Model management represents a line of research within the DSS field that focuses on the design and implementation of software environments to support the use of DSSs for this purpose. This paper describes the tasks that must be supported within these environments and illustrates how existing prototype Model Management Systems (MMSs) implementations provide this support. The use of artificial intelligence techniques in such implementations are reveiwed, and three scenarios are presented to show how future MMSs could be constructed using these technique

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01537.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01528.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY