摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper considers a Markov process in which there are rewards associated with state transitions. Two or more actions are available to the decision maker, and the transition probabilitities and the rewards are influenced by the actions selected. A key assumption is that control cannot be a function of the current state of the process. In other words, the decision maker is assumed to have no knowledge of the current state of the process (or to ignore such knowledge if it exists). Within this context the problem of determining the best randomized policy, the best in the sense of maximizing the expected reward per transition in the steady state, is discussed. Analytic results are developed for the simplest case of a two state process with two possible actions.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00686.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe article presents a simple method for establishing the optimal cut‐off point on a credit‐scoring index under a variety of conditions. A procedure for choosing an index from several candidates is also proposed, and the use of credit information in such an index is discus

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00687.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTA key step in contract bid development is estimating the probabilities of winning with bids of various profit potentials. One of the most common approaches to estimating these probabilities, the average bidder approach, has an inherent bias which causes it to almost always over‐estimate the actual chances of winning. This note explores the nature of this error and suggests a method to compensate for i

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00688.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTTraditional methods of identifying cost‐oriented market boundaries have three fundamental deficiencies. They assume transportation charges are proportional to distance. Second, where non‐proportional cost‐distance relationships are considered, a high degree of abstraction, generally stopping at the purely theoretical level, is present. Third, because of the time consuming and tedious work required, they appear to be operationally unfeasible.The method presented in this paper accommodates certain non‐linear transportation cost‐distance relationships and is operationally feasible in cost‐oriented market ar

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00689.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn operational applications, forecasts are normally adjusted by applying safety factors to allow for asymmetry in the underlying loss function. This paper considers an extension of the often used linear loss function to situations in which an error can also result in a fixed sum loss.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00690.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to extend the sensitivity analysis methodology as it applies to linear programming. The methodology developed herein is concerned with those changes in a technological coefficient that cause simultaneous changes in the relevant cost coefficients of the objective function. By proceeding from the definitions of feasibility and optimality, the authors develop formulas for determining bounds on the extent to which a technological coefficient, which has a predetermined effect on the corresponding cost coefficient, can vary without changing the optimal set of activities. After the formulas are developed, their use is demonstrated on a product‐mix problem. This technique is of interest because changes in the rate at which an input is utilized can be expected to change the cost per unit of a resulting product. This interdependence should be recognized whenever a sensitivity analysis is performed on a technological coefficient of either a cost minimization or a contribution margin maximization proble

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00691.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTFour propositions are derived from ana priorimodel which relates environmental characteristics, organizational differentiation, and perceived environmental uncertainty. The four propositions are: (P1) the greater the magnitude of each of several task environmental dimensions confronting an organization, the greater the degree of organizational differentiation, (P2) the greater the degree of task environment change, the greater the degree of organizational differentiation, (P3) the greater the size of the organization, the greater the organizational differentiation, and (P4) the greater the organizational differentiation, the less the degree of perceived environmental uncertainty seen by top administrators. These propositions were tested on 23 Employment Service District Offices with objective environmental and organizational differentiation measures and with self report indices of perceived environmental uncertainty. Zero‐order correlational and regression analyses supported propositionsP1,P3, andP4. Based on the empirical findings, a revised model of environment, differentiation and uncertainty was developed. Suggestions for future research and theorizing are offere

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00692.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTAn important problem in the planning of political campaigns is the allocation of resources to precincts and other geographical voting units in order to maximize a candidate's plurality. Essentially, parties may increase candidate plurality by engaging in registration drives, midcampaign activities such as canvassing and candidate appearances, and get‐out‐the‐vote drives. Based on previous work which has related voter response to party identification, the authors develop a model for the optimal allocation of campaign resources to these activities. The computational feasibility of the solution procedure is made possible by a decomposition across activ

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00693.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTA chance constrained programming model is developed to arrive at an optimal long‐range design for a manufacturing facility. The determination of process capacities, the amounts of the various types of equipment, and the time‐phasing of the acquisition constitutes facility design in the study. The expected cost is minimised, subject to probabilistic constraints which express the risk associated with demand forecasts. The model is solved by decomposing the deterministic equivalent. The structure of the model enables the solution to be obtained with one iteration. The algorithm is incorporated into a computer code which is applied to the design of a tire plant. The methodology has the potential of extendability to nonmanufacturing syst

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00694.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn an advertising strategy, it is preferable to optimize a sequence of periodic decisions, rather than optimizing each period's decision separately. Thus, a dynamic technique such as optimal control, which is used in this study, should be employed. Necessary conditions, as inferred from a parsimonious advertising model, are tested using data from the tobacco industry. Parameter estimation involves the use of non‐linear regression. The estimates permit trajectories of optimal advertising expenditures and optimal market shares to be constructed for filter cigarettes. When compared with the actual trajectories, the optimizing trajectories exhibit a striking correspondence to reality. Therefore, interesting results can be obtained using a simple model, provided the optimizing method takes into account the dynamic nature of managerial decision‐making and provided powerful methods for estimating model parameters are u

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1976.tb00695.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1976

数据来源: WILEY