摘要:

ABSTRACTDecision making has the objective of finding the best alternative or set of alternatives by considering a number of goals, objectives, criteria, competitors, and other important factors. The analytic hierarchy process is a decision aid used to assist a decision maker in sorting out the complexity of a decision problem and making use of his or her judgments. A decision maker must be assured that the arithmetic operations of any such decision process are the right ones—that they surface the correct ranking and values of the alternatives and preserve or alter ranks appropriately when new alternatives are added or deleted. In this paper it will be shown that with absolute measurement, rank always is preserved, with relative measurement, rank changes with nspect to scveral criteria only because of the structural dependence (involving both numbers and measurements) of criteria on alternatives. A discussion of the effect on rank of replicas and near replicas of the alternatives also is give

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01514.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTMultiattribute utility theory (MAUT) was employed to model the professional judgments of external auditors. Fully developed MAUT models elicited from each subject according to keeney and Raiffa's [6] procedures were used to predict the internal control systems evaluations made by auditor‐subjects. Correlation analyses were used to compare the predictive ability of the “correct” MAUT models to the accuracy of models developed under simplifications of the MAUT procedures. One simplified model resulted from relaxing the requirements for attribute independence that determine the functional forms. A second modified MAUT function was formed using unitary weightings on conditional utility functions instead of elicited scaling constants. Tests showed essentially no significant differences in predictive accuracy among the models in the contact of this

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01515.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTAlternatives involving many factors arc difficult to evaluate because of multiple underlying competing objectives. If evaluation is based on an incomplete set of factors, and if the purpose of the evaluation is to select a single overall best alternative, inferior alternatives may be selected with surprising frequency and/or severe negative impact. At the same time, sensitivity analysis of evaluation scores based on statistical criteria can easily mask the impact and the frequency of selection of inferior alternatives. In this paper, criteria appropriate to reflect the decision impact are developed and both the frequency and impact of the selection of inferior alternatives are demonstrated empirically. Previous studies based on statistical criteria [1] [9]indicated minimal impact on overall evaluation and selection. This paper demonstrates that high statistical criterion values coexist with frequent and/or serious errors of selection.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01516.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTAn experimental paradigm was constructed to assess the impact of prediction‐task difficulty on the relative accuracy of probabilistic versus deterministic predictions. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the accuracy of probabilistic versus deterministic predictions is related to the level of difficulty inherent in the prediction task. At low levels of prediction‐task difficulty, deterministic predictions were mort accurate than probabilistic predictions; the converse was true at high levels of difficu

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01517.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper considers the problems of designing inspection strategies for production systems terms in the presence of environmental uncertainty. The framework for determining information priorities to support inspection system planning is presented in the contaxt of a generic production system that encompasses the characteristics of many real‐world serial production systems. The impact on the design decision of five key variables is considered: quality of producton processes, quality of inspection procedures, penalty cost for undetected defective units, relative cost of improving process vs. inspection, and shape of the cost functions for process and inspection enhancement. The framework for analysis involves varying factors over two or three orders of magnitude to determine optimal inspection strategies across a wide range of environments These results are used to compare design decisions made in the presence of environmental uncertainty using expected‐opportunity‐cost and minimization‐of‐maximum‐opportunity‐cost approaches. Design strategies are identified for situations ranging from complete lack of knowledge about the environment through increasing levels of information. Information‐gathering priorities are established, and the impact on the design decision of this additional informa

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01518.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe U.S. Navy has been trying for years to develop a model to automate its personnel assignment process The requirement of rotating navy personnel frequently between sea duty and shore duty in accordance with multiple policies makes modeling efforts difficult. However, without a model to optimize assignments with regard to multiple policies, navy managers do not know the real impact of personnel assignments. This limits their ability to make effective decisions. This paper summarizes our effort to develop a large‐scale network model for the navy's assignment problem. The navy has accepted this model for implementation, replacing the current manual assignment process. The approach in this paper can be generalized to a wide variety of perosnnel assignment problem

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01519.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTA common manufacturing environment in many industries (such as the glass, steel, paper, costume jewelry, and textile industries) is a hybrid flow shop. This system has continuous‐process machinery in the fist state of manufacturing and repetitive‐batch equipment in the second. Little research has investigated this type system. Scheduling managers of hybrid flow shops tend either to use existing job‐shop rules or to devise their own rules. These approaches often are less than adequate for efficient scheduling. In this paper we extend the rule presented by Narasimhan and Panwalker [4] to include a general class of hybrid flow shops. This extenstion, called the generalized cumulative minimum‐deviation (GCMD) rule, is compared under various operation conditions to three other sequencing rules: shortest processing time, longest processing time, and minimum deviation. The operating conditions are determined by the number of machines at both stages. The results of 7200 simulation runs demonstrate that the GCMD rule is better than the other rules in minimizing each of five chosen criteria. Thus, the GCMD rule can help managers to schedule hybrid flow shops efficiently to achieve various corporate obj

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01520.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper considers a production planning model for a single‐facility multiproduct problem where backlogging is not allowed. A planning‐horizon theorem is derived. From that theorem, a forward algorithm for finding an optimal solution over a finite horizon and a procedure for selecting the first‐period production in a rolling‐horizon environment are developed. Computational results from a set of simulation experiments designed to investigate the cost effectiveness of the procedure demonstrate its effect

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01521.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTWe show that the problems of determination lot sizes in a multistage assembly system for the case of instantaneous production and constant demand for the end item can be reduced to the problems of determining relative frequenceis of production/order for items at each production stage. We further show that such frequencies are independent of the demand levels. Optimal and near‐optimal solution procedures for this reduced problem are provided. The near‐optimal procedure successively treats each stage of production as a final production stage while simulatenously incorporating decisions made at lower stages into decisions made at higher stages. Experimental results show that the near‐optimal procedure results in optimal solutions 75 percent of the time and performs considerably better than representative heuristics available in the literature. Further, its performance is relatively less susceptible to product/structural characteristics of the s

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01522.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTTypical forecast‐error measures such as mean squared error, mean absolute deviation and bias generally are accepted indicators of forecasting performance. However, the eventual cost impact of forecast errors on system performance and the degree to which cost consequences are explained by typical error measures have not been studied thoroughly. The present paper demonstrates that these typical error measures often are not good predictors of cost consequences in material requirements planning (MRP) settings. MRP systems rely directly on the master production schedule (MPS) to specify gross requirements. These MRP environments receive forecast errors indirectly when the errors create inaccuracies in the MPS.Our study results suggest that within MRP environments the predictive capabilities of forecast‐error measures are contingent on the lot‐sizing rule and the product components structure When forecast errors and MRP system costs are coanalyzed, bias emerges as having reasonable predictive ability. In further investigations of bias, loss functions are evaluated to explain the MRP cost consequences of forecast errors. Estimating the loss functions of forecast errors through regression analysis demonstrates the superiority of loss functions as measures over typical forecast error measures in th

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01523.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY