摘要:

This article attempts to identify some cognitive tendencies involved in analogical forecasting of the outcomes of medical treatment. Sixty‐one medical doctors were involved in two experimental tasks concerned with prediction of the outcomes of a new medical treatment when the result with a first patient was known to be either negative or positive. The same subjects were also tested by the Short Optimism/Pessimism Questionnaire (SO/PQ) to explore relationships between life attitude and the cognitive tendencies observed in the experiment.The following findings were reported: (1) The first step of forecasting was recognized as a Data Evaluation Process (DEP), where the physician decides if the given data are sufficient to forecast the result of the same treatment with a new patient. (2) Two cognitive tendencies were identified: non‐data‐suggested tendency—drawing a conclusion opposite to the data given; and data‐suggested tendency—drawing an optimistic conclusion when forecasting from “positive” data and a pessimistic conclusion when forecasting from “negative” data. The second tendency appeared to be dominant; however, the “positive” data created a stronger atmosphere to draw conclusions on a negative outcome. (3) It was stated that analogical forecasting involves two integrated processes, i.e., concluding and asserting. If the integration process is not complete, the subject is drawing analogical conclusions with a low confidence. (4) An optimistic life attitude appeared to be an important factor in determining

ISSN:0021-9029    

DOI:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb01176.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study presents longitudinal data concerning factors that influence student participation in political campaigns for candidates opposed to nuclear weapons build‐up. Participation in campaigns was stimulated by nervousness about the nuclear arms race and the possibility of nuclear war, a feeling of moral obligation to act to try to prevent nuclear war, and several additional factors. The factors that contributed to participation in political campaigns are quite different from the factors found previously to be associated with other types of activism against nuclear weapons build‐up. These findings suggest varied strategies for recruiting people to participate in different types of activ

ISSN:0021-9029    

DOI:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb01177.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This experiment examined the effects of two different types of group cohesiveness on performance of a disjunctive task. Both interpersonal and task cohesiveness were varied independently. Results show that high levels of both types of cohesiveness were necessary for success on a task requiring group interaction. Groups high on one type of cohesiveness but low on another performed no better than groups low on both types of cohesiveness. These results suggest that cohesiveness should be conceptualized as a multidimensional rather than as a unitary variable. It is also suggested that the effects noted in the present study may well vary according to task characteristics.

ISSN:0021-9029    

DOI:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb01178.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Perceived crowding, rate of sick calls, and use of space were studied among jail inmates. The inmates had been randomly assigned to one of two jail units that were identical in design and management, but varied in population density levels. Initially, population density was rated at capacity on one unit, and over capacity on the other. Data were collected before and after a court order that caused population levels to be decreased on the unit over capacity and increased on the other, so that after the change density on both units was the same. Comparison data were also collected on several other units. The results revealed both absolute and contrast effects for density on inmates. Perceived crowding and sick call rates varied directly with density levels, but also were affected by the direction of shift. That is, when population levels were equal after the change, perceived crowding and sick call rates were higher on the unit that had experienced an increase in density. Also, as population levels increased, there tended to bean increase in isolated passive behavior and a decrease in isolated active behavior in public areas. Implications for crowding research and for jail design and management are discussed.

ISSN:0021-9029    

DOI:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb01179.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The individual deciding on a nuclear weapons production policy is faced with a dilemma in which a choice must be made to support one of several conflicting defense policies. In order to investigate the social‐psychological variables that are related to armament policy decision making, a telephone survey was conducted in the City of St. Louis, Missouri. Adult subjects (N= 110) responded to questions concerned with cognitive, attitudinal, and emotional responses to nuclear arms. Participants were also asked to choose a weapons production policy for the United States under conditions of continued and decreased Soviet nuclear arms production. Results indicated that respondents decisions about nuclear weapons production were related to their support for deterrence, the availability of their nuclear‐related images, their emotional response to nuclear war, their attributions of responsibility for the prevention of nuclear war, and their political party affiliation. Distinctions between antinuclear decision‐makers and pronuclear decision‐makers are di

ISSN:0021-9029    

DOI:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb01180.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Links between the accident at Three Mile Island (TMI) and attitudes among residents of a distant community toward a local nuclear power plant were examined. Interviews were conducted about 18 months after TMI with 213 residents of a nuclear host community concerning the effects of TMI, expectations about local events, and attitudes toward the local plant. Residents' perceptions of the importance of TMI in relation to their attitudes were associated with the perceived hazards of the local plant and with changes in attitudes over the past five years. A path analysis showed that the perceived influence of TMI was inversely related to local acceptance of the plant through expectations of local outcomes. Perceived hazards were more strongly related to the perceived influence of TMI than to expected economic benefits. Findings suggested a strong link between a distant event and local expectations and attitudes.

ISSN:0021-9029    

DOI:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb01181.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Over the past decade, drinking and driving has been a major social problem causing deaths and injuries. The present study examined factors that may encourage this potentially self‐destructive behavior. Three hundred and seventy‐eight subjects were presented with scenarios describing a night of drinking with friends. Scenarios differed with respect to three levels of intoxication (not at all, slight, and very) and two levels of weather (clear and rain). Subjects were asked to estimate the proportion of their peers who would drive home or choose an alternative form of transportation. Subjects were also asked to evaluate the target who drove home or took an alternative in terms of likability, cautiousness, skillfulness and independence. Driving home was found to be the most common mode of transportation, regardless of state of drunkenness or weather conditions. Alternatives to driving home were seen as being utilized only under extreme conditions (e.g., very intoxicated and rainy weather). Moreover, persons taking one of the more cautious alternatives were perceived as overly cautious and also low in skillfulness. The practical implications for the findings are discussed with respect to enhancing education effo

ISSN:0021-9029    

DOI:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1988.tb01182.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY