摘要:

AbstractEconometric model building for forecasting has developed substantially over the past 15 years. Nevertheless, operational researchers have neglected these new developments. This paper defines nine stages the forecaster must go through when developing an econometric model. Each stage is discussed with reference to the most recent research. The complexity of econometric model building requires the forecaster to adopt a modelling strategy. Two have been proposed in the literature; one moves from a specific model to a more general version, the second goes from the general to the specific. Five recent O.R. studies using econometric methodology are then evaluated, highlighting the common areas of weakness. They are those areas that econometricians have paid most attention to in their recent research. The paper then surveys the effectiveness of econometric models compared to alternative approaches, concluding with some recommendations to the O.R. worker in forecasting. In particular, it recommends that more attempts are made to develop econometric models for O.R. applications.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.99

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.100

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.101

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractSimulation has long been a valuable tool in the field of production. With the current and anticipated developments in computing equipment, there is a demand for simulation software, which can be used by managers to investigate specific classes of problems. The O.R. profession should involve itself in the identification of suitable areas and the development of appropriate software. Two such areas where simulation software is being developed are discussed: production planning in a batch environment and the investigation of advanced manufacturing systems.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.102

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThere is an unmet demand for the treatment of irreversible kidney failure, particularly in the older age groups. A model of the treatment system was built to explore the implications of meeting the demand, giving different priorities to the available treatments and changing the balance between home and hospital. This discrete event simulation, developed in the Wessex Region, describes the system realistically, including resource use and constraints, the arrival of kidneys for transplantation and the matching of donors with recipients. It is written in Pascal on an Apple II computer and uses shadow entities to describe the survival of patients on each type of treatment. The model was validated with techniques which included the use of a tabular display while the simulation was running. The model has proved to be easy to use and robust both to different data requirements and extreme policy changes. The techniques developed have more general application in the Health Service context.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.103

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper discusses a series of computer modules for forecasting and inventory control on micros. The systems have also been developed as interactive training packages.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.104

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper is based on experience of using network analysis on mainframes and microcomputers and contains thoughts on the factors which lead to successful implementation and on the essential features of a good micro-based package.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.105

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractAlthough many papers have been published on the subject of expert systems, relatively few of them have been concerned with systems which failed.In this paper some of the major reasons why expert systems fail are described, along with some techniques for alleviating these problems.Expert system developments fail for the same reasons as conventional software systems. However, they may also fail because the problem they are dealing with is not or cannot be understood, because they require common sense or knowledge of the limitations of their knowledge, because they cannot be tested, or because they cannot or will not be trusted.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.106

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper considers the factors that help to make a package‘user friendly’and hence more acceptable to users in management. The paper is based on experience with a forecasting package‘Forecaster’.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.107

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines the business user and the problems of meeting his computing needs, particularly with regard to linking micros to mainframes.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1985.108

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1985

数据来源: Taylor