摘要:

AbstractThe paper presents a comparison of Health and Welfare O.R. in the U.K. and Ireland as represented by two registers of current projects, compiled in 1972 and 1977 respectively. The survey shows thatThere appear to be very few O.R. studies of social services;The major focus has apparently moved away from hospital-based tactical studies, towards more broadly-based strategic studies;Related to this, the number of projects labelled as concerned with "planning" has increased;The number of projects involving "optimisation" has decreased, whilst those involving simulation have shown some increase; andThe majority of projects in both years were described as involving "applied common sense", rather than any specific technique.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.131

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper deals with the problem of forecasting the population of growing pullets in England and Wales. The term Growing Pullet is used for a hen from birth until it is moved to the laying flock. Quarterly data is available on the number of growing pullets alive, while data is published every month on the number of hens hatched.Previous work in the field of forecasting agricultural populations has been based on Cobweb Theorem considerations and relies on past prices and expectations of future prices. However, given the available data and non-price relationships that take place in the growing sector, it is possible to build a non-price model.The approach followed is to start with a naive regression model estimated using ordinary least squares. The model does not conform to prior expectations of regression coefficients and has to be re-estimated using Quadratic Programming. This provides new ideas for a further model that incorporates adaptive expectations and that is updated using a Box and Jenkins time series approach.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.132

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA formula is developed by a consensus of professional social workers and research staff to measure the relative needs for social work in different geographical areas.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.133

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe Superior Commander is a new methodology for the design and control of experimental games in which the players may be exposed to crisis or stress. It satisfies three important requirements: the player in the game believes that he is an active decision maker; the game contains sufficient complexity and detail to be accepted by the player as realistic; and the experimenter is able to control the game so that he can replicate it exactly with different players. One implementation of the methodology, the Organisational Control Game, is described in detail, and the principles of the Superior Commander are demonstrated.The Superior Commander was developed to overcome some of the limitations of other gaming approaches to the study of decision making in crises, but it is also a general methodology for research games, and can be used for a range of purposes for which both realism and good experimental control are required.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.134

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe regional distribution problem for a perishable product is examined, under the important assumption that younger units are issued first (LIFO) to satisfy the demands of the customers at the locations. Optimal and approximately optimal allocation policies for two alternative distribution systems are derived. Their properties are discussed, and comparisons are made with the equivalent policies in aFIFOenvironment.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.135

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents a mathematical model developed for optimization of single-item multi-stage production-inventory systems. The demands are assumed to occur randomly at the same rate whereas processing and setup times are different, each following exponential distributions with different means. The model assumes a "one-for-one ordering" inventory policy and that on total system cost expression comprising setup, holding and penalty costs is obtained for optimization. As a special case, single stage, cost expressions become the same as those obtained by Baker. Computational results for two stages are given. Implications of aggregating the two stages into an equivalent simple stage are discussed.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.136

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper develops several variations of a goal programming model for optimally allocating a fleet of search and rescue aircraft to a fixed set of available and potentially available bases. In addition, the model determines the number of aircraft of each type from each base (at which that type has been stationed) to assign to the various search locations. The criterion for optimality is to maximize the probability of locating each distress in a specified time. These models are then modified to include fleet planning issues. Solution procedures relating to the models are discussed.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.137

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA new method for planning the routes of a fleet of carriers subject to a maximum load restriction is outlined. It is derived from a combination of the well-known "savings" heuristic rule and Monte Carlo simulation. Without increasing the level of complexity of the search routine beyond that already employed in "savings" based programs a marked reduction in total route length can be obtained. This is demonstrated with the aid of three much-considered problems, and for one of these, distances have been found that are below any previously recorded, even for those algorithms with the support of more elaborate logistics.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.138

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn managerial finance, the short run usually refers to multiperiod models which involve operating plans and cash flow analysis. Long-run models are for capital investment or capital budgeting. Their essential link is the emphasis on cash flow and budgets. This relation is explored with an integrated model and its decompositions by budgets. The decomposition yields subunit models for the short run and long run which are related to earlier models, but yields insight into the organizational use of budgets for coordination and control. To obtain relative efficiency measures on two alternatives organizational budgeting mechanisms, a simulation was performed and analyzed.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.139

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn a previous paper, the author discussed what induction period was necessary when simulating time series models, in order to avoid distortion caused by the initial transients which arise from starting up a simulation run. That approach, however, can be misleading and this paper gives an alternative and more precise treatment which provides greater insight. One novel conclusion is that the necessary warm up period depends not only on the process to be simulated, but also on the length of the required simulation run. For simplicity, the detailed argument is restricted to the first order autoregressive model.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.140

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1979

数据来源: Taylor