ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.68

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe structural approach to economic forecasting differs from familiar models based on the classical analysis of time series in that it requires the specification and estimation of the inter-relationships that are taken to represent economic structure. The first part of the paper deals briefly and rapidly with some of the problems encountered in specifying and estimating such structural models. The second part deals with the applications of such models and their implications for forecasting and policy analysis. These sections are intended to be fairly allusive and preparatory to the main body of the paper which discusses a specific example of a simple econometric model of the U.K. economy constructed at the London Business School. The model is described in terms of its structural relationships, and the results of some simulation work are presented. The paper concludes with some general evaluation of the approach in the light of the specific illustration discussed.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.69

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe Defence Manpower Studies Unit (DMSU) has been created to co-ordinate and develop manpower planning and research for the Armed Forces. Some of its objectives and modes of operation are described.An important characteristic of the Unit is that it seeks to be both an operational research unit and an integral part of management. The arguments for this dual role are based on experience and particularly on the experience of the Naval Manpower Department. The relevant history of this Department is described, and examples of its tasks given.The Armed Forces, taken together, absorb a substantial part of the national manpower resources at the recruiting ages, but also contribute to national trained manpower. The DMSU, therefore, is paying considerable attention to macro-scale aspects. Some of the work of the new Unit is relevant to the work of other government departments, universities, and industry. Examples are given.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.70

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractPerhaps the most important decision facing any Chief Fire Officer is how many fire stations to have and on which sites to build them. It is appreciated that the optimum solution is that which minimizes the sum of the financial loss from fire and the cost of providing the fire brigade. Financial loss data are not as yet available so the criteria for optimization have had to be altered.A technique has been evolved which minimizes the total number of fire appliance journey times to fires for any given number of fire stations. A set of solutions is obtained giving the best combination ofrstation sites from a set ofnalternative sites, wherervaries fromn-1 to 1. This technique has been applied to the area covered by Bristol Fire Brigade and the results are discussed.Although the criterion adopted for optimization was necessarily unsatisfactory a near valid set of answers appears to have been obtained. Suggestions for future work are also made.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.71

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractOperational research has had only limited success in tackling problems which involve dynamic social factors. The social sciences today are not oriented to contribute to the solution of these problems. Rather than abandon the problems, or deal with them inadequately by ignoring the social factors, there is a third possibility. The situation can be simulated, with necessarily simplified rules of social action and interaction. The simulation should be regarded as a tool for experimentation rather than as an exact description, and progressive sophistications of the representations of the social factors can be developed. Illustrations of the adequacy of this approach are drawn from a model of the prescribing habits of doctors.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.72

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA manual method was developed for scheduling the vehicle fleet of a contract transport undertaking. The main requirements were observance of time limits on individual calls and the ability to allocate pairs or groups of related calls to the same vehicle. These objectives were achieved by introducing an initial allocation of calls to vehicles prior to sequential routing of the calls. The allocation was based on a model relating work density (calls per unit area) to vehicle loading (calls per unit of vehicle time), and on fact-finding research on the main parameters of calling time, travelling speed and distance. This relationship was embodied in a visual scheduling aid for use by the route planners. Implementation was successful and resulted in about 15 per cent of vehicle time being made available for additional revenue-earning work without increase in fleet size. When utilized this represented an effective saving in operating costs of about 12 per cent.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.73

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractMost wholesale distribution is performed during multiple-delivery journeys. Mathematical methods of locating depots utilize simple functions of delivery data, e.g. weight and distance from the depot, to measure the delivery "cost"; the total "cost" is minimized to find the depot location.It is pointed out that the cost of a delivery is influenced by the occurrence of other deliveries. It is shown that, in a few examples, simple functions of the delivery data are not always good measures of variable cost, as measured by the length of journeys planned to carry out the same deliveries, and that the minimum points of the simple functions rarely coincide with the point of minimum variable cost. It is concluded that, subject to reservations, which are discussed, about the experiments, the use of simple cost functions to locate wholesale distribution depots will probably give misleading results.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.74

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.75

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.76

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1968.78

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1968

数据来源: Taylor