摘要:

AbstractThis paper discusses some of the early thinking about the development of a conference-based decision support system. It presents a scheme for the practical development of the mapping of argumentation (‘cognitive mapping’), particularly in the field of strategic planning. The objective is to redesign software (COPE) so that it may become both an effective conferencing system for the collection of‘synthetic wisdom’and yet also facilitate the analysis of the qualitative and quantitative features of the models so constructed. It stresses the need for the system to be able to cope with both the political and the behavioural aspects of the decision-making arena.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.41

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA notational scheme has been designed to express inexactness, uncertainty and the boundary with ignorance in‘policy-related research’.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.42

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe paper argues that, until very recently, decision analysts have devoted relatively little attention to the processes of problem formulation and subjective judgement in handling ill-structured strategic decision problems. Therefore, following a brief review of existing varieties of decision analysis, a modified policy dialogue' model of decision analysis is presented which integrates decision analysis with decision aids and decision support technology. This model is developed using as an illustration strategic problems drawn from the insurance industry. The paper concludes with some suggestions for the successful application and implementation of decision analysis.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.43

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn a mail-order preview exercise, a sample of customers is given the opportunity to place orders before the main catalogue season begins. The orders received are then scaled up to forecast demand for new lines in the coming season. The accuracy of such estimates is examined, and it is shown that mail-order previews can provide useful information on demand, particularly for high sellers. For the approach to be both effective and economic, however, care needs to be exercized in analysing the preview data and in choosing the preview sample size. Methods for doing both are described.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.44

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper, the effects of the head-of-the-line priority and the first-come-first-served service disciplines and the variability of the service-time density functions on the mean values of performance measures of multiple finite-source queueing models are studied. In these models, with a single server, the times between the service completion and the next service requirement are exponentially distributed and the service times follow exponential, hypo-exponential or hyper-exponential probability density functions. The effects are compared with the known behaviour of multiple infinite-source queueing models.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.45

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractAn interactive approach to solve the multi-objective integer-programming problem heuristically is described. The approach consists of two main parts. The first is an algorithm to guide the search for a set of weights to the objective functions which would produce the solution most preferred by the decision-maker given a linear utility function. The search area is successively decreased through an interaction process, with the decision-maker using a selection and contraction method. During each stage of this algorithm, a number of single integer-programming problems are solved heuristically. The motivation for this approach, along with some computational experimentation, is provided.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.46

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe main results in queueing theory are obtained when the queueing system is in a steady-state condition and if the requirements of a birth-and-death stochastic process are satisfied. The aim of this paper is to obtain a probabilistic model when the queueing system is in a maximum entropy condition. For applying the entropic approach, the only information required is represented by mean values (mean arrival rates, mean service rates, the mean number of customers in the system). For some one-server queueing systems, when the expected number of customers is given, the maximum entropy condition gives the same probability distribution of the possible states of the system as the birth-and-death process applied to anM/M/1 system in a steady-state condition. For other queueing systems, asM/G/1 for instance, the entropic approach gives a simple probability distribution of possible states, while no close expression for such a probability distribution is known in the general framework of a birth-and-death process.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.47

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractMany short-term forecasting systems are based on exponentially weighted moving averages. It is usual to forecast the cumulative demand over a lead time or production horizon, and to describe this forecast in terms of its mean and variance. When the forecast horizon is fixed, the variance is often taken as the product of the number of periods and the variance per period. This is a serious error and typically underestimates the variance by a factor of about two. This paper details the need for a proper awareness of the correction factors.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.48

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper deals with the approximate analysis and application of an unreliable closed queueing network to model the performance of a flexible manufacturing system. The service stations in the network are subject to breakdown and repair when active. An exact equivalent network is represented with two-stage Coxian service stations. We approximate the equivalent network by assuming exponentiality for the service completion time, which has a two-stage Coxian distribution. We validate the approximation for a wide range of model parameters and demonstrate the robustness of queueing network formulae to the assumption of exponentiality.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.49

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractAn example is given of a lost-sales inventory problem, with two types of products, and deterministic demand, where it is optimal to be out of stock in one product for a positive proportion of the time, but not for all the time.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.50

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor