摘要:

AbstractThis is a transcript of four talks given in two sessions at the OR Society Annual Conference 1987, at the University of Edinburgh, to recognize the 50th Anniversary of OR. Some slight editing has been carried out by Professor R. W. Shephard (Centre for Operational Research and Defence Analysis, Long Acre, London), but hopefully each speaker's style and enthusiasm has been preserved.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.17

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents a new model of manpower systems which is based on the fundamental concepts of thermodynamics, and which is therefore potentially of very widespread applicability.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.18

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines in detail reasons for using constructively simple models in management science interventions. Constructive simplicity is an objective concept describing the form and level of detail in a model. It is distinguished from the subjective concept of transparency, which relates to user-comprehension of a model. Usual arguments for constructive simplicity focus on model-building considerations such as model clarity, flexibility and convenience. Constructively simple models are also an efficient way of learning about decision situations. Client managers may prefer constructive simplicity not only as a convenient way of ensuring transparent models, but also for reasons related to motivation, time constraints, implementation and involvement of third parties. A principal conclusion is that constructive simplicity in modelling is a robust strategy for effective interventions.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.19

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractBarber Ellis Fine Papers (BEFP) is a Canadian distributor of about 10,000 SKUs to several thousand small or medium-sized firms in the printing and graphic arts industries. A considerable increase in sales is anticipated over the next few years, requiring BEFP to make some important policy decisions in inventory, warehousing and transportation. Two methodologies were employed in our analysis. First, a spreadsheet model was used to simulate several particular inventory/distribution alternatives, e.g. the present decentralized system and a system based on a national distribution centre. Secondly, linear programming was used to obtain thebestsystem alternative, consistent with constraints on capacities, demands, etc. Details of the methods, the results and conclusions are given. Relative merits of simulation and optimization models for this type of inventory/distribution problem are noted, and suggestions are made for further research.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.20

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA three-phase simulation written in Pascal and using a suite of procedures developed by Lancaster University and the London School of Economics is developed to model a group of ships subject to submarine and air attacks during an extended period of conflict. The simulation collects statistics on weapon usage by the ship group in order to study the impact of attrition, including the effects of preferential targeting, and correlation between the usages of different weapon systems, on war arsenal requirements.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.21

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractAs part of a legislative package designed to reform the finance of local government in England and Wales, the Government has proposed simplifying the measures of‘need to spend’, which will continue to be a key determinant of a local authority's grant income. In this paper we examine the construction of a measure of‘need to spend’on education in some detail, and argue that‘fairness’would be better served by slightly increasing the degree of complexity of the current measure rather than attempting to follow the path to simplification advocated by the Government. The impact on local authorities of adopting the more complex measure of‘need to spend’which we propose is described.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.22

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper addresses a problem common to all railway networks. Given a fixed train timetable and locomotives (or other forms of traction) of various types, each train must be allocated a locomotive. This paper examines the use of stochastic algorithms for such a problem. Two types of algorithm are used—a simple‘local improvement’method, performed successively from randomly chosen starting points, and a‘simulated annealing’approach. Both are found to give considerably better results than a deterministic method in current use, and the annealing approach is probably the better stochastic method.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.23

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractOne recommended approach to the building of expert systems is to start with a very simple system and to expand the level of detail as the system evolves. With this approach there is the practical problem of organizing the rules as the system develops. This paper describes the use of a folding editor for easing this administrative overhead.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.24

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractChanging the mortality risks we face would change human life expectancy. As a special case, one could imagine adding a fixed incrementRto all the age-specific mortality rates from age zero upwards. For this case we seek a constantK(A) such thatK(A) xRapproximates the resulting change in life expectancy remaining at ageA, at least for small values ofR. The formula forK(A) derived here corrects a heuristic argument that appeared in JORS earlier. An estimate ofK(0) suggests that the permanent addition of a one-in-a-million risk at each year of life would reduce life expectancy at birth by about 1 day—a useful fact for risk communication.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.25

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1989.26

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor