ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.96

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper was originally presented under the title "Decision" at the Third Operational Research Conference of the Universities of Lancaster and Sussex held at Windermere in April 1968. In it, the question of what is meant by "improved decision-making" is examined and the ways in which operational research can and does contribute to this are discussed. In the course of this the "American School" of Decision Analysis is reviewed. The paper concludes with some suggestions on computational procedures. This paper was written as a vehicle for discussion. In order to stimulate this, the authors have been deliberately provocative and presented an extreme point of view. The paper which follows this is a condensed version of some of the discussion which took place at the Conference. The authors would welcome further contributions.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.97

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractSeveral points mentioned by Adelson and Norman1in their paper "Operational Research and Decision-making" are discussed critically-the selection of the model and its implication on the decision by an individual or by a committee; the choice of objectives and the degree to which objectives can guide a decision-maker; subjective probability; the evolutionary process in management decision-making.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.98

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe probability density function of the time to sell a fixed quantity of stock depleted by a distributed demand is derived for block depletion and continuous depletion. The mean time to sell is obtained for (i) gamma-distributed demand and block depletion and (ii) normally distributed demand and continuous depletion.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.99

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractSome practical experiences in collaborating with a marketing department in deciding whether or not to test-market before launching a new product. The benefits derived from the use of elementary decision-tree theory are described.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.100

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn many problems in distribution management it is necessary to take account of the expected distances that result from dispatching vehicles to meet customer demand. For example, in mathematical models for determining the optimal location of depots, the sum of radial distances (between customers and the depot), or the sum of the weighted distances, is used as a measure of the delivery "costs". Since actual delivery operations from the depot usually consist of truck-routes with each truck delivering to more than one customer at a time, it is important to know to what extent the above simplification is valid, namely to find a relationship between the actual route-distances and the sum of the radial distances.This paper makes use of an algorithm which plans optimal or near optimal routes to estimate this relationship by solving a large number of randomly generated problems. The discrepancies between the two methods are shown to be significant under certain circumstances.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.101

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA well-known replenishment policy for an inventory subject to probabilistic demand gives rise to the problem of determining an order quantity and a reorder level which minimize the average cost of keeping inventory. If the problem can be expressed in terms of a simple approximative model which includes a restriction on back-orders and represents demand in the replenishment lead time as normally distributed, it is possible to construct a "set-square index" nomogram which accomplishes a major part of the necessary computations. The procedure for using the nomogram and the principles of its construction are described.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.102

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractTwo separate sets of forecasts of airline passenger data have been combined to form a composite set of forecasts. The main conclusion is that the composite set of forecasts can yield lower mean-square error than either of the original forecasts. Past errors of each of the original forecasts are used to determine the weights to attach to these two original forecasts in forming the combined forecasts, and different methods of deriving these weights are examined.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.103

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA criticism sometimes made of dynamic programming is that in deterministic problems, optimal decisions are calculated which are never needed, as the decisions relate to states which never arise. In this paper we describe how some of these "redundant" calculations have been used, in a certain problem, to derive a working rule of general validity.The problem concerns the installation and replacement of an item of electrical equipment at a large number of sites, to meet a known load at each site which increases exponentially at a known rate.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.104

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn a time-sharing computer system a queueing problem arose whose solution could not be found easily using classical queueing techniques. The assumption of an exponential distribution for the time between arriving messages has enabled a theory to be constructed to find the average response times for customers. Since the system modelled is a simple interrogation service the analysis and results should be of general use. In particular the distributions of service times required by the customers can be quite general.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1969.105

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor