ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.159

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe‘crisis’debate in O.R. expresses concern at the divergence between textbook O.R. and what practitioners actually do. The debate is examined by comparing O.R., systems analysis and systems engineering. They are all wedded to logic in situations in which logic may not be paramount. The science in O.R. applies only to aggregate results, but the practitioner must deal with a specific situation. The tradition of systems thinking which emerged from organismic biology is described. It leads to a way out of the O.R.‘crisis’, by providing a formal structuring of a paradigm of learning rather than optimization. O.R. can aspire to match natural science, and pass the problems by; or it can close the textbook/practitioner gap by changing its concept of‘being scientific’.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.160

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe paper discusses the difficulties caused by the non-repeatable nature of all operational research studies. The author regrets the anecdotal nature of much of our research and makes a plea for more documentation of case studies rather than word of mouth folklore. Simulation is shown to be a powerful tool for experimental replication and is especially valuable in that it offers a better approach than mathematical modelling. In a final section, doubt is cast on the usefulness of much of the teaching of O.R.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.161

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn a recent paper (inOperational Research '81, North-Holland, 1981), the author put forward a methodology for problem-formulation. In order to test it, a group of teachers concerned with the introduction of a new, integrated operational research and systems analysis M.Sc. course agreed to accept the author as a consultant. The aim was to clarify and define their problem of developing and maintaining their new course. This paper describes the nature and course of the experiment. It comments on the difficulties that were encountered, and on the perceived benefits to the client-group and to the researcher.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.162

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractMeasurement of output for a multi-product system often relies on revenue as a yardstick, but such an approach is inadequate for measures of physical output or aggregate price. Many alternative methods, based on the use of index numbers, are outlined and compared for a simple example. The strengths and weaknesses of these methods are discussed, and ways of overcoming difficulties due to discontinuities in the product range are suggested.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.163

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe difference between the hope of expectation and mathematical hope, as pointed out by Daniel Bernoulli in 1738 and by Harald Westergaard in 1876, and its influence on the discussion of utility is considered.The subjective elements and the objective factors in cases of risks are taken up. A digest for the evaluation of major hazards as seen from the three viewpoints, the individual, relations between individuals and the relations between individual and surroundings, is discussed.As essential elements in the decision process, the importance of voluntary and involuntary risk, pareto optimization, the size of solidarity, the absolute size of the damage and the distrust of experts is pointed out in the paper in the evaluation of major hazards-in other words, a simultaneous application of multi-decision strategies, e.g. Bayes, min-max and Hurwitz criteria.The number of members standing shoulder-to-shoulder in the group is emphasized as a numerical factor in the evaluation.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.164

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractRationality is a judgment made by one or more persons of one or more others (subjects). It involves the relationship between the researcher's and the subject's models of the reality faced by the subject(s). For this reason, the attribution of irrationality by one to another is often a consequence of mismatching models. Therefore, it is suggested that researchers are better off attributing rationality to others (even if this implies their own irrationality) and trying to uncover the model(s) of the others because it leads to better understanding of them and an increased ability to serve them.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.165

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractSystems theory is seen as stressing the rational mind (what we think about) to the detriment of the transactional mind (which we use day-to-day). This stress can be harmful to practitioners who must work in practical, transactional worlds. Rather than attempting to be infinitely rational, we propose a position halfway to infinity-rational and transactional combined.Much of systems theory is pleasing to hear and difficult to contradict. Much of the theory is about design of systems, but it is in the often non-rational process of implementation that the real system emerges. Also the theory tells us about systems but not how to identify the `correct' system that our O.R. efforts are impacting. The theory also tells about complexity, but the tools presented for handling it do not seem related to the theory.The halfway position is to build a body of contingent theory from reflection on experience, using systems theory as a framework for thinking rather than a guide for action.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.166

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractApplying the systems approach in practice requires compromises to be made in its ideals. This paper discusses this problem by examining two case studies of programme budgeting which can be seen to be an application of the systems approach; it attempts to expand the dimensions of budgeting away from an annual exercise based on functions to a process of medium-term planning based on programmes. The two case studies are the introduction and suspension of Planning-Programming-Budgeting-System (P.P.B.S.) in U.S. Federal Government and the various developments in the U.K. in the Public Expenditure Survey (P.E.S.C.). These provide illuminating contrasts in their intended scope and successful implementation. This contrasting experience suggests questions about systems theory. Should the essential characteristic of the systems approach be expansionism or adaptability? Can systems writing afford to ignore compromises necessary to achieve implementation, especially those made to satisfy political interests?

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.167

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIt is shown how the (extended) systems approach can be successfully used to design mathematical models in a highly systematic way. The systems approach supports interdisciplinarity in that it encourages participation of non-mathematicians in the model design process. The systems approach also leads to a clear documentation of a model.The basic principle explained in this paper is thatindicesof a model representelementsof an element set of a system, and thatvariablesandconstantsof a model representattributesof the elements.Multi-indexedvariables and constants refer to attributes of‘complex entities’(from extended systems terminology) which cover the information between the elements.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1983.168

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor