ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.34

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA solution to the simple location problem is defined by a one-dimensional array of bivalent variables. Some multi-dimensional location problems may be also of interest in practice. Two such problems are analysed here. The first involves location of supply sources for several commodities and the second a multistage distribution system in which the location of demand varies from stage to stage. Examples of application from civil engineering practice are also presented.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.35

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe basic Friedman model is extended to allow for bias in cost estimates and the use of management judgement on market trends. The estimated mean bid is used as a parameter. Simulation, using data from four construction companies, is used to evaluate the performance of the resulting model. A sensitivity analysis is used to determine the required accuracy for the management estimate. A brief account is given of the introduction of the model as a practical tool of top management in a major construction firm.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.36

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractTraditional forecasting methods assume a large amount of product history. New product launches take place in the absence of any product sales statistics and initially it is necessary to formulate beliefs as to the product future and then to combine these with sales data as it becomes available. The particular situation considered in this paper concerns a mail order company which sells a different group of ladies dresses on each of its catalogues. The life of a catalogue is of the order of 6 months and material ordering decisions tend to be relevant only at the beginning and during the first few weeks of the catalogue. The task of the Distribution Department is not helped by the presence of a large number of returns from customers. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to the forecasting problem and the "live" performance of the method on one catalogue is discussed.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.37

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractStatistical analysis is used for a decision situation involving a vertical cooperative advertising venture. A product is sold from a company to an independent agent, in which a portion of the agent advertising expense is paid by the company. A typical example is the company-to-agent relation between a soft drink manufacturer and its bottlers (distributors). The object of the analysis is to determine an optimal setting of the product price between company and agent, the advertising subsidy paid to the agent by the company and the advertising level of the agent. It is demonstrated via a real-world study that these decisions may be improved by use of statistical analysis.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.38

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper is concerned with using the digital computer as an aid to the solution of a class of multivariable design problems and reports some experience. The input to the computer is a set of design variables and a set of interactions between these variables, while the output consists of a hierarchy of groups of highly interacting variables. Both the preparation of the input and the interpretation of the output depend on subjective decisions by the designer using the computer. A specific application was therefore investigated in which different sets of inputs were compiled by three different designers, using 18, 38, 58 and 185 variables. The four outputs were analysed to compare their usefulness as a design aid in proportion to the effort required for their preparation. An IBM 7044 computer was used and a guide is given for the estimation of program running times on this machine.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.39

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe project which is described here was based on schools in which the main movement problem was one of minimizing the time spent in journeys between activities in the school day. A mathematical model was developed which provides estimates of these times. This was used to investigate the effects of varying the layout of the school buildings and layouts which would reduce the movement times were obtained. Possible timetable and organizational changes which could reduce movement were also suggested.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.40

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractRisk simulation has become a standard alternative to the utilization of single estimates for input data to investment appraisal models. Under the risk simulation approach managers define probability distributions for relevant input factors. During this process management may consciously or subconsciously assume certain relationships between the input variables. These interdependencies are often omitted from the models, however, under the justification that they are accounted for implicitly in the values attributed to the variables by management. It is demonstrated in this paper that such omissions may lead to significant errors in the observed distributions of the selected appraisal criteria. Various forms of discriminate sampling are introduced and an example is cited for which certain discriminate schemes are shown to be more accurate than traditional independent sampling.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.41

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractForecasts may be combined using a minimum variance criterion to yield a composite forecast of smaller error variance than any of the components. This paper considers the sampling distributions of the weights to be attached to the components and of the error variance of the combined forecast. Confidence limits are derived for the estimates of the weights and of the variance of a composite forecast with two components. The theoretical analysis reveals that, in practice, it is doubtful whether combined forecasts offer much improvement because of the unreliability of the weight estimates.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.42

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes an easy method of determining the economic manufacturing schedule of a multi-product single machine system on a repetitive basis. An example has been solved to illustrate the method reported in the paper.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.43

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1973

数据来源: Taylor