摘要:

AbstractThe authors set out to consider the activities of their own O.R. group at British Airways in the light of Russ Ackoff's papers delivered at the 1978 ORS Conference, but the paper has developed into a discussion of Ackoff's ideas from the viewpoint of an in-house industrial O.R. group that has had considerable success in implementation and has thought a great deal about what it is trying to do. Particularly relevant is the emphasis placed by this O.R. group on highly interactive planning models and systems and on an evolutionary approach to development. Some attempt is made to put Ackoff's ideas into an historical perspective and his main points are discussed one by one. The authors are in sympathy with the direction Ackoff is pressing, but not with the gloom his paper has generated in some quarters.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.53

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThree new applications of the purposeful control model are presented, showing the dynamics of both its internal and external behaviour.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.54

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper proposes that the debate over O.R.'s role in development can be advanced by looking at a specific industrial environment. The Kenyan example suggests that for O.R. to make a contribution to this developing society it must: first, be defined as broadly as possible so as to include the most basic problem-solving techniques, and second, contribute to the diffusing of these techniques throughout the economy. O.R. should be viewed less as the province of an elite group of specialists—and more as a common resource available to managers at any level of industry. O.R. educators in developing nations can "democratise" quantitative techniques by incorporating them into such traditional business disciplines as accounting, marketing, and production. These courses should stress problem-solving and rely on cases drawn from local experiences. The paper ends by describing a pilot project, the Case Research and Documentation Centre, which is designed to promote more pragmatic management education and research in Kenya.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.55

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractWhen the Government Committee on Policy Optimisation published its report, the Committee of Professors in Operational Research was concerned to discover that there had been no formal input from the Operational Research community into the evidence which was taken. As a first stage in deciding what should be done, the Committee of Professors invited Professor S. L. Cook to write an appreciation and a criticism of the report. The Associate Editor, as a member of the Committee of Professors, was impressed by the outstanding quality of Professor Cook's note and suggested to him that, subject to minor editing changes such as rewriting his appreciation in the third person, Professor Cook might wish to have his note published in this journal.On the day that the Associate Editor received Professor Cook's acceptance of this invitation, he also heard of his untimely death. This paper, therefore, is published posthumously and is as Steve Cook wrote it, apart from the minor changes referred to above. The compassion and breadth of vision of Steve Cook shines through in every sentence.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.56

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes the solution of the practical problems encountered by a Company when a product is made and sold for a limited promotional period only. The production and inventory control aspects are considered and a system aimed at the reduction of obsolescence costs is described which is based on a model of the demand pattern which uses a Gompertz exponential growth curve. Under pressure for an early improvement from the organisation, a system based on an empirical model was implemented, as an interim measure, which achieved a considerable improvement in performance. The Gompertz model has now been put into operation and the results of a simulation model are presented indicating that further improvements can be achieved.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.57

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper considers the expansion of a river abstraction plant which is used conjunctively with a storage reservoir to supply water. Because of the uncertainty of inflows to the reservoir, the problem is stochastic and because of storage carryover from year to year, decisions on the plant size have a persistent effect. By assuming that the storage carryover effects last for a finite time only, the problem can be formulated in terms of a recurrence relation which can be solved by a version of dynamic programming. The optimality of the solution obtained is investigated by sensitivity testing.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.58

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA technique for analysing multiple time series has been developed. Its efficiency on a number of types of series has been tested. The method involves seeking time dependent components analogous to principal components but using criteria based on time dependent functions of the resulting components. The functions are those used in the Box-Jenkins forecasting system and results in components ideally suited to forecasting using that system. The initial results are extremely encouraging and the paper consists of a description of the method together with a summary of the results for a wide range of series types. The system is offered as a diagnostic tool useful for those who need to identify the underlying sources of variation present in large volumes of data.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.59

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA companion paper found that the principal planning methodologies embody procedures which tend to generate plans which are inflexible; and identified characteristics which a methodology for flexible planning should exhibit. In this paper an integrated methodology incorporating these features is proposed. Centred on robustness analysis it is non-optimising, being based on the establishment of feasible alternative plans; it accepts future uncertainty as a defining characteristic and attempts to keep options open; and it can facilitate participation. The potential advantages and disadvantages of the methodology are discussed; and some technical options in robustness analysis are presented in an Appendix.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.60

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractLittle has been done by way of developing an objective technique for long-term forecasting of a utility load duration curve. This paper endeavours to rectify this situation by developing a methodology to provide forecasts of an economically optimal approximation to the load duration curve. A dynamic programming algorithm serves as the basis of the optimal approximations over a known horizon. These approximations are then forecast using time series analysis and an econometric model. The approach is implemented and the results are encouraging.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.61

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines a short-cut method for the solution of two person zero-sum games. The method of oddments always works for 2 x 2 games which do not exhibit saddle points. When larger games are examined, the method is not universally successful. The paper examines the estimated success rate for the method of oddments using 3 x 3 matrices whose elements have been randomly selected from a uniform probability distribution.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.62

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor