摘要:

AbstractFundamental to the use of risk analysis is the concept of‘acceptable risk’. This paper examines the different methods of determining a value for acceptable risk. It concludes that the comparison of risk versus change in life expectancy is the only method that has consistent units and satisfies the Pareto criterion.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.96

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper delineates the conditions whereby a sales manager would maximize long-run profits by using a typical two-step procedure to recruit salespersons. The procedure attempts to select the most able sales candidates from a flow of applicants, given the opportunity costs associated with the lack of validity and reliability of the procedure followed at each step. A computer algorithm (called SCRAP), based on the principles of Bayesian sequential sampling theory, makes the procedure operational. Required input data are generally available from existing personnel and accounting data, as well as from managerial judgements. The procedure is illustrated in a real situation and points the way towards more efficient recruiting practice.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.97

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA procedure for allocating classrooms in an educational institution is presented. It is based on a linear programming model in which a penalty function is minimized. With the default values of some parameters provided by the procedure, the model first assigns as many real rooms to the requests as possible. It also seeks to do so with the most preferred rooms. Finally, when it is necessary to depart from the most preferred rooms to satisfy the first objective, the model attempts to spread this departure uniformly among requests. By altering the default values in the penalty function, the user may also favour some requests in the attribution of rooms. Constraints are concerned with the availability of rooms at various hours of the day, and with the requests for these rooms. Since this approach implicitly explores all possible assignments, it should produce better results than manual allocation. Results of empirical applications confirm these expectations, taking the number of demands that can be met as the main criterion. Moreover, an automated procedure to prepare the problem and decode its solution has made it possible to decrease substantially the time spent on this task.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.98

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents an application of interactive goal programming on the microcomputer for small business. The illustrative application in this paper is based on real data obtained from a small business in Wisconsin, U.S.A. The microcomputer-based interactive system indicates that the goal programming approach enables the small-business manager/owner to test a variety of alternative strategies reflected by goal levels and priority structures.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.99

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis article is a case study described from two viewpoints: that of an analyst and that of a‘decision-maker’. It describes the use of two‘soft O.R.’methods in helping the members of a university O.R. group to plan revisions to a postgraduate Diploma course, resulting in the implementation of an improved course. One author conducted the exercise while the other was a member of the client group. Given that case studies are usually written by the analyst alone, it is hoped that a client's eye-view will be useful as feedback for practitioners and can also introduce some of the concepts and terminology of soft O.R. to those engaged in more mathematical O.R. activities.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.100

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractVery effective detection of spontaneous combustion or open fires in coal mines can be provided from calculations based on measurements of a few parts per million of carbon monoxide (CO) in the ventilating air, even in the presence of CO from shotfiring, diesels and other sources. A project to develop automatic alarms is described.Forecasting/smoothing methods were abandoned in favour of the development of a model of normal conditions as a Markov process, with an associated sequential hypothesis test. Various approximations and assumptions allowed the derivation of algorithms to suit different circumstances, including both continuous and intermittent sampling of CO. In each case, the calculation of alarm levels for individual locations was an important part of the algorithm.The model allowed the most to be made of a minimal knowledge of rare events (i.e. heatings). The‘quick and dirty’algorithms proposed are simple enough to allow an 8 bit micro to monitor 20 points while simultaneously revising alarm levels; yet being derived from a good model, they are effective, well behaved and adaptable.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.101

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA three-phase simulation system written in Pascal for use on microcomputers, minis and mainframes is presented. The advantages of the three-phase method are discussed, and the basis of the system explained. Although a traditional, textbook example is used to aid explanation and discussion, the system described in this paper has been used in real applications and in the teaching of simulation at Lancaster University and the London School of Economics. It also provides a basis for further research in simulation within both institutions.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.102

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractEmploying a group of general approximations introduced elsewhere, we derive explicit approximate solutions to the standard newsboy problem, to some (Q, r) models recently developed, and to a periodic review order up toRmodel. The solutions obtained are general in that no distributional assumptions need to be specified prior to their derivation, and merely knowledge of the first three or four moments (of the relevant random variables) is required. The accuracy achieved is satisfactory, while algebraic simplicity is preserved.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.103

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper we discuss the classical problem of the allocation of a single finite resource among many competing activities for the specific case where the coefficients of the objective function form an interval scale. In this case there is no longer a single optimal solution, but rather a set of efficient solutions. We recommend a technique equivalent to parametric objective function analysis to generate the set of efficient solutions to the problem.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.104

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractFor use in determining the stability of outcomes in non-cooperative games, an improved definition of simultaneous sanctioning is devised. Conditions such as‘procrastination’,‘staying power’and‘fear of dire consequences’, which may invoke stability by simultaneous sanctioning in games, are described.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1986.105

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor