摘要:

AbstractThe paper discusses a methodology to assist in the selection of the next generation additions to a power system, focusing on cost and reliability issues. Given global model solutions, several investment candidates are generated and then analysed for their cost and reliability performance to find the exact characteristics of the new generation modules. A unified approach to carry out the evaluation process and the sensitivity analyses, based on refined probabilistic models, is also discussed. The methodology described is not intended to represent the planning process of any particular electric utility.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.69

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe technique of metagame analysis enables the assessment of the political feasibility of engineering projects. The building of a large power plant in Saskatchewan, Canada, has resulted in a conflict between Canadian and U.S. interests over the apportionment of water in the Poplar River, which flows across the international border from Saskatchewan into the American State of Montana. Metagame analysis is used to determine political resolutions to the Poplar conflict based on the published preferences of the interested parties. It is shown that metagame analysis conveniently organizes information and provides insight into conflict resolution.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.70

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper attempts firstly to describe the various applications to which LP has been put in Scottish agriculture, and secondly to give some general observations about the value and difficulties of using LP in agriculture.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.71

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractPrevious works on stochastic inventory problems have often assumed that an item's lead time demand follows a "convenient" distribution such as the normal, theγor the Weibull. First, this paper argues that these convenient distributions may be overly restrictive and unrealistic, and points out the versatility and realism of using four-parameter distributions of the Pearson's and the Schmeiser-Deutsch's systems. Second, using these four-parameter distributions, this paper presents practical `manual" methods for computing the stock-out probability, reorder level and expected lost sales of an inventory item and for solving the lot-size reorder-point model. Some of these methods are actually simpler than the ones developed previously for the more restrictive distributions.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.72

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents the full-capacity heuristic, a procedure for determining run sizes for scheduling N products which must be produced on the same machine. First, the optimal solution for scheduling two products at full capacity is reviewed. Then a heuristic method is presented for solving the N product, full capacity problem. The method involves: (i) judgementally selecting the sequence of set-ups in the fundamental cycle; (ii) determining the relative durations of each run within the cycle by solving a system of linear equations; and (iii) computing the associated optimal cycle length and annual cost. Finally, there is discussion of how to apply the full capacity method in the more common situation when there is slack production capacity available.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.73

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractMany authors have demonstrated the superiority of the Box-Jenkins Procedure for forecasting. The only problem preventing more widespread use has been the skill and time needed to produce an acceptable model. This paper describes an approach to the automation of the modelling procedure, which combines a pattern recognition procedure and objective model order testing criterion. The results from an automatic Box-Jenkins modelling program are presented and compare favourably with results from manual analysis given in the literature.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.74

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractMaximum likelihood estimates for the parameters involved in a stationary M/M/2 queueing process with heterogeneous servers are obtained to make inferences about arrival and service rates. The queue is considered to be in a state of equilibrium. One further extension is discussed.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.75

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractOn the basis of special matrices of growth various models of co-operating enterprises are considered. The formulation of such models is useful for the expression of specific structural problems as well as for the possibility of extrapolation of system elements into the future. Their common characteristic is that all of them are existing on the "structure of growth" and not on the technical relations of interdependency as is the case in intersectorial analysis.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.76

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn this note, predictions for an M/D/1 queue with alternating high (>1) and low traffic intensities are derived using elementary deterministic and queueing theoretic methods. These are compared with results available from a simulation study. Good agreement between the two sets of results is found except for one discrepancy which an exact analysis by numerical convolution failed to resolve and for which a tentative explanation is given.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.77

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe classical deterministic inventory model is considered for the case of constant time between each replenishment and linear trend in demand. The optimum policy is derived and shown to apply to both positive and negative trends. This policy is used in two examples considered in earlier papers on linear trend. It is shown to give only slightly higher costs than the optimal policy with varying replenishment periods, and is compared with a recent heuristic for that case.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1980.78

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor