摘要:

SUMMARYThe relation between unemployment and nominal wages for the period, 1887‐1913, is characterized by a regression function in whichy = 3.5 ‐ 0.5 x. The coefficient of correlation is ‐0.63, thex‐axis bisected at a value of 7 per cent—the latter a value very close to results obtained for England and the Nether‐lands in the postwar years. The corresponding coefficient for the period, 1925‐38 is ‐0.75, the x‐axis is crossed at a value of 15.8 per cent. The last period (1949‐66) yields no significant correlation (‐0.17). The relation price change—unemployment yields only for the period, 1925‐38, a possibly meaningful correlation of ‐0.64, the other coefficients arc substantially lower. Thus one may regard the relationship price change—unemployment for Germany as non‐significant. Similarly, the relationship real wages—unemployment yields only for the period, 1925‐38, a meaningful correlation: ‐0.79 with thex‐axis being crossed at a value of 20.5 per cent

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02529.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYThe nature of a statistical relationship between wage changes and unemployment rates or its very existence in the United States has stimulated studies with contradictory conclusions. This study concludes that (1) a classic ‘Phillips curve’ can be constructed for the U. S. in the postwar period; (2) recent U. S. inflation has reflected the effects of a ‘Phillips curve’ analysis, more so than only secular updrift; (3) a single variable approach (utilizing the skilled labor force unemployment rate) is more successful in explaining wage and price changes during this period than the multiple variable models which are contradictory in theoretical specification and anyway have not performed successfully in recent years; and (4) that the U. S.‘Phillips curve’ has shifted to the left during the 1960's, making the economy less inflation‐prone than has been previ

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02530.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYThe elaborate fabric of a transnational society and the organization of political power in sovereign states provide a dual system of order, and a source of disorder in the world. Each of the two elements tends to dissolve the other. History shows various models of harmonizing the conflict, but none has had lasting success. International catastrophes have been followed by fresh growth of the two elements and of their vulnerability. After World War II, the world has explored the organization of society and political power in two international camps, led by two great states, an unprecedented effort on that scale. The decay of the effort in the 1960's releases forces that threaten national and international life with a war of all against all. Alternative models show as yet little promise of stemming this process of disintegration, and of reconciling the ambitions for change and for order. Competition among the models is overlaid with competition among states and movements. There is but a slender hope that communities and liberties will be preserved until some kind of civilized government is found for the transnational society.

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02531.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYThe traditional theory of the influence of interest groups on the political process asserts that interest groups will always be formed as soon as there arc a number of people with similar interests. As a consequence all the different ends of the population will be represented in the struggle among these groups, which will, therefore, bring about a fair outcome for all parts of the population. More recently Olson has shown that this theory is wrong because in many cases interest groups will not come into existence even if there are strong latent interests. More important perhaps is Wagner's argument that even without the existence of an interest group the wishes of the respective number of people will be represented in the political process because political parties want to win votes. This argument shows the necessity of demonstrating that the existence of interest groups brings about a more successful representation of the interests in question, if one wants to prove their influence on the political process. Reasons for this influence are the favourable position of interest groups and (or) their members in the information network of society and monopolistic market positions. Both enable them to influence additional voters besides members (and non‐members with similar ends) in their voting behaviour. As a consequence the respective interests can be represented with better success among political parties vying for votes than without the existence of interest group

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02532.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYInThe Structure of Scientific RevolutionsT. S. Kuhnargues that the history of the natural sciences has been marked by periodic crises, when the dominant ‘paradigm’ is challenged, rejected, and displaced by a new paradigm. Since the paradigm's functions are both regulative and cognitive, this process has sociological as well as purely epistcmological aspects.With the exception of the Keynesian revolution of the 1930's, there have been no phases of paradigm change in economics quite like those in the natural sciences. This is due mainly to the nature of economic paradigms (or ‘basic’ theories) which are less precise and less liable to falsification. ‘Critical anomalies’ and ‘crucial experiments’ do not arise in economics, as in the natural sciences; and yet the process of paradigm change may serve as an ideal type, which can be used to clarify the interrelationships between the terminological, conceptual, personal, and professional elements involved in the development of economic ideas, especially in such episodes as the emergence of classical (Ricardian) economics, theMethodenslreit, or the marginal uti

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02533.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYIn this article the author introduces the government investments into a modified Cobb‐Douglas production function. These government investments and the corresponding outlays of the private sector of the economy are divided into a public capital stock and a tertiary capital stock (the immaterial capital). These stocks are introduced into the production function in addition to labor and the private capital stock. Then the different time‐lags between the income‐effect and the capacity‐effect are considered. In order to cope with the problems arising from the use of an analysis of regression, empirical investigations generally use the production function in the linearized form, for which the rates of increases are calculated. At the same time the problem of how to find realistic statistical weights (elasticities of production) arises for the new explaining variables. The author proposes two methods and calculates one (hypothetical) example. Following is a discussion of some empirical problems (time‐lags, estimations of the capital‐stock, elimination of fluctuations in the use of capacity, etc.). The results suggest strongly that the introduction of government investments into the macro‐economic production function is useful tool to reduce the res

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02534.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYThe relationships between international trade and short‐term capital placements are shown to be more numerous and complex than is often recognized in the literature. At first instance the trade balance determines a flow of private capital but these flows do not represent movements to equilibrium positions. At least partial repatriation of such flows will be desired by traders but the speed of this repatriation is constrained by the terms on which trade finance has been extended. With full repatriation, a ‘permanent’ change in the trade balance would not lead to a permanent change in private capital flows, but rather to a change in the net stock of short‐term assets held abroad due to these constraints on instantaneous portfolio adjustment by traders. The size of the change in this stock is shown to depend on the terms on which trade is financed as well as on the size of the change in the trade balance. The time path of the permanent outward shift is dependent upon these terms as well.The effects just summarized depend upon a divergence between traders’ actual and desired portfolio allocations because of temporary constraints on portfolio adjustment. Longer run changes in the trade balance and absolute volume of trade will affect traders’ convenience and hedging returns from holdings of foreign balances and hence may affect their desired portfolio allocations. While these effects could conceptually go in cither direction, the secular expansion of trade should level to a short‐term capital inflow into the United States because of the international role

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02535.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02536.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02537.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0023-5962    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1969.tb02538.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1969

数据来源: WILEY