摘要:

A multinomial logit model is a useful approach in the study of the allocation of a fixed resource between alternative uses. Here a geometric mean form of the system is presented and a number of theoretical and empirical issues are explored. In particular, its performance is compared with the use of double logarithmic equations estimated separately. As an illustration of the methodology, an allocation model of UK cereals area is specified and estimated in both static and dynamic forms.

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01038.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The Common Agricultural Policy has been more successful at securing food supplies than at providing adequate incomes for small farmers. Among proposals for resolving the problem, part time farming is a promising option. To date, agricultural policy has at best ignored farms below the ‘full time’ threshold, at worst discriminated against them. The new Agricultural Structures policy embodies a more positive approach, however. Robson's paper calls for better information on farm households with other gainful activities. Statistics from the 1983 Farm Structure Survey provide insight into the nature and extent of part time farming in the European Community.Neglect of part time farming in the UK up to now may have stemmed from its perceived irrelevance for agricultural policy. Now that it is being viewed in a more favourable light, policy makers need to be appraised of the facts. Currently about one third of main agricultural holdings in England and Wales are part time farms in the sense that farmer or spouse combines another paid job with farming. Gasson's paper explores the nature of these other jobs and features of their distribution. Following trends in other developed countries, non‐farm activities are becoming increasingly important for UK farming families.Growth in part time farming has obvious implications for income support, widely agreed to be the fundamental objective of agricultural policy in western Europe. Existing farm income measures are not adequate for assessing the extent of the income problem in agriculture. Data from the Inland Revenue's Survey of Personal Incomes and the Wye College part time farming survey fill some of the gaps left in official measurements. Non‐farming earnings, pensions and investment income contribute significantly to farm household incomes. A majority of part time farming families in England and Wales make more from other sources than from farming. Although average incomes of part time farmers may exceed those of full timers, Hill's paper identifies a section of part time farming families with inadequate incomes from all

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01039.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Several efforts have been made since 1980 to estimate the costs and benefits of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper summarises the approach and method adopted in developing one such effort, which aims to provide results at country, commodity and interest group level both for the CAP as a whole, and for changes in it.Economic analysis of the effects of price changes in the CAP is carried out with the use of direct and crossprice elasticities of supply and demand for sixteen major commodities, using base levels of production, consumption, and gross trade flows in each member state, along with rest‐of‐world data. A number of CAP instruments, such as subsidies, levies, quotas and ‘green’ exchange rates, are built into the calculations and can be varied, along with support prices, to produce new situations in domestic markets and in world price levels. Both financial (budgetary) and welfare (economic surplus) effects of such exogenous price changes can be calculated. Certain policy changes, such as a move to ‘free’ markets, involve endogenous calculation of equilibrium prices. Trend projections subject to a priori constraints are used to produce results for years beyond the extent of data currently available.The types of model run commonly carried out are discussed, along with several strategic judgments that became necessary in carrying out the research. Finally, questions concerning the future development and use of the model ar

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01040.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Taking the price situation as given in product and factor markets, a non‐linear differential equation model of gross output, employment, capital accumulation, and gross input for united Kingdom agriculture is derived by incorporating internal adjustment cost functions into the representative decision‐maker's objective function, and estimated using a discrete approximation. The results are consistent with efficient use of resources, but further incentives for capital investment and a greater exodus of labour could upset this. Adjustment costs as estimated account for 2.6 per cent of the value of output; those associated with net investment for 1.8 per cent, and those associated with employment and gross input for 0.57 and 0.23 per cent respectiv

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01041.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper evaluates the ablility of an autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) model to forecast monthly milk output before and after the imposition of quotas in April 1984. In the post quota period the standard arima model is modified to a ‘discontinuity’ model allowing the quota to be represented explicitly. It is concluded that for a medium term forecast this is preferable to the standard arima model, whilst for one period ahead forecasts the models are equally g

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01042.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Allocating resources to the provision of public forecasts may be justified as a means of reducing fluctuations arising from divergent expectations. In this paper we examine certain forecasts provided by the Meat and Livestock Commission. Our results indicate that these forecasts pass a number of tests of model adequacy. In particular they appear to be unbiased and efficient.

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01043.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Effective agricultural and rural development planning requires a detailed understanding of the rural and wider regional economy. A regional input‐output model has been developed for Grampian Region in North‐East Scotland.The production of regional input‐output matrices by survey methods is extremely expensive. An alternative method is to adjust mechanistically a national input‐output table by an employment ‐ based location quotient procedure. This paper discusses some important conceptual issues related to the methodology. It also presents the main findings of the Grampian model, in particular those relating to the agri‐business and food complex. The model's implications for regional and rural development are assessed by multiplier analysis and the applicability of the modelling procedures for other regions is

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01044.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The paper presents the results of a study in which multiperiod linear programming models were used to examine the probable responses of small and medium sized dairy farms in Northern Ireland to various policy, farm indebtedness and development options and to project consequent structural change in the dairy sector. The introduction of quotas has curtailed the considerable potential for expansion of output on these farms while having a less detrimental effect on farm profits and the survival of the smaller dairy herd than the price cut necessary to produce the same reduction in output.

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01045.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Estimates of labour input coefficients for individual agricultural enterprises have many uses for policy‐makers, agricultural administrators, farm mangement advisers and academics alike, though they have attracted relatively little attention in the UK in recent years. This article describes a new method for estimating labour input coefficients which enables the estimates to be updated quickly and cheaply using information already available from the annual June Census. Some possible uses of the resulting coefficients including the evaluation of prospective changes in agricultural policy are describe

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01046.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this paper an investment demand function is estimated, making use of some particular characteristics of data on the sales of agricultural equipment in the UK. The characteristics are that, first, much of agricultural equipment is deliverable quickly from stock and does not appear to be supply‐constrained, thus allowing equality of actual and desired capital stocks as a working hypothesis. Second, frequent replacement of machinery leads to depreciation rates which are high and variable. A method is presented to calculate a variable depreciation rate for each period and the resulting estimates are superior to the same model with a conventional, fixed depreciation rat

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1987.tb01047.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY