摘要:

The common presumption that food‐importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial‐equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium mod

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00265.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Neoclassical production theory assumes that outputs and inputs can be separated into two distinct commodity groups. However, this fails to take account of the presence of produced means of production in agriculture which undermine the ceteris paribus assumption on which partial equilibrium analysis is based‐a criticism identified as part of the broader Sraffian critique of neoclassical economics. A simulation exercise designed to investigate the importance of produced inputs in UK agriculture found evidence of perverse aggregate supply response resulting from the use of feedgrain, an output from the cereal sector, as a produced input in the livestock sectors. This empirical result lends some support to the Sraffian analysis; however, it is suggested that the perversity arises from failure to take account of the produced input, and that computing ‘net out

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00266.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Most work on valuing the recreational benefits of public forests has concentrated on estimating consumers' surplus per visit. We use two contingent valuation approaches to try to place a value on the physical characteristics of British forests, and hence to explain the variation in consumers' surplus across different forest types. Our two approaches are, first, to obtain incremental willingness‐to‐pay to access forests with different levels of a number of characteristics by showing visitors pairs of photographs; and second, to use characteristic levels as explanatory variables in a bid curve. We find that forest characteristics are in general poor predictors of willingness to

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00267.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper considers input pricing rules for a producer cooperative which supplies its members with two inputs: a publicly provided private input (water), and a local public input (road services). An Israeli Moshav which allocates land equally among producers is a good example. The cooperative uses a two‐part pricing rule: a product‐dependent uniform fee (head tax) and a user charge per unit of the private input. Discrimination of head tax among the producer groups is shown to dominate that of user charge in the short run. However, land reallocation among producers can result in a Pareto‐superior pricing rule and the Henry George theorem emerges in the long run. Thus, allowing land leasing while maintaining equal rights to land increases producer we

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00268.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear‐cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co‐ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co‐ordination of US‐EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in t

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00269.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper investigates alternative forecasting methods when few observations are available. An illustration is provided by Spanish monthly maize prices after Spanish accession into the EC. Sophisticated multiple‐equation models are difficult to specify in situations of limited data, and simpler models have to be considered. In this paper, several individual and composite forecasting methods are compared, based on 24 one‐period‐ahead forecasts generated from these models. Results based on different quantitative and qualitative measures show that composite forecasting methods are more accurate. In situations where severe multicollinearity exists, forecasting performance is improved by modelling this problem expli

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00270.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper develops measures of relative price variability among agricultural commodities in the UK farm sector for the period 1956‐88. Econometric tests of the hypothesis that relative price variability is positively correlated with instability in the macroeconomy are carried out. The results indicate that UK agricultural commodity prices become more volatile relative to one another when the economy‐wide inflation rate increases and when aggregate output becomes more variable. These findings suggest that UK producers and consumers of domestically grown farm products experience increased risk and uncertainty in their production and consumption decisions during periods of macroeconomic instability. The effects of UK entry into the European Community are also examined; no evidence is found to suggest that adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy reduced year‐to‐year relative price variability among agricultural comm

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00271.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Input‐output coefficients and multipliers based upon them are increasingly being used to evaluate the impact of changes in agricultural policies, yet there are a number of specific difficulties with regard to their use in this context. This paper articulates various criticisms which can be made, and tests their validity by comparing multiplier forecasts with out‐turns from a series of eight input‐output tables describing the Welsh agricultural sector. The predictive performance deteriorates rapidly as the time between base matrix and forecast year increases; more attention needs to be paid to the forecasting of final demand, spill‐over effects into other sectors, and the functional relationship between labour input and gross

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00272.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The replacement of the Shah's regime by an Islamic fundamentalist government in Iran resulted in the outlawing of interest‐bearing credit and its replacement with a credit system which accords with the teachings of the Koran. Two forms of credit are acceptable: interest‐free loans, and profit‐and‐loss‐sharing loans. Although the latter have assumed only a small proportion of lending by the Agricultural Bank, they are potentially attractive to small risk‐averse farmers because of their risk‐sharing characteristics. In particular, they pass part of the business risk (e.g. due to uncertainty in yields and prices) back to the lender and avoid creating any financial risk for the borrower. A model is developed to explore the impact of Islamic credit on borrower behaviour and a numerical illustration is also provided. Results of a farm survey are reported, and indicate that small risk‐averse farmers prefer the Islamic credit system, whilst medium and large‐scale farmers prefer interest‐based credit. Some of the obstacles to more widespread uptake of the Islamic credit system in Iranian agricul

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00273.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The paper focuses on identification and evaluation of wine quality characteristics of grapes. A pricing schedule that rewards producers for quality attributes is developed. This quality‐based pricing schedule would serve to reduce the production of poor‐quality wines by giving farmers a correct and powerful incentive to provide better grapes. The research evaluates the proposed grape price schedule in two steps. The hedonic qualities of Israeli grapes are estimated by relating the contribution of each grape characteristic to wine quality. Then the price of wine quality is estimated, and the hedonic prices for Israeli grapes are calculated. Results show that the current pricing system pays little premium for a better‐quality pr

ISSN:0021-857X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00274.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY