ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00863.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00864.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00865.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article describes a joint project conducted from 1991 until 1993 by the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) and the German Fraunhofer institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI). Some first outcomes, and different alternatives on how to use the data for trend interpretation and priority setting, are described.The Japanese Delphi survey is conducted every five years and was first undertaken in 1971. In 1992, NISTEP and ISI agreed on a joint project. About 3000 Japanese experts were asked to answer more than 1000 questions based on 16 different technological areas. With financial aid from the Federal German Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT) the Japanese fifth Delphi survey was replicated in Germany. The Japanese questions were translated and more than 1000 German experts responded to the questionnaires and judged the possible technological development within the next 20 to 30 years. The aim of this joint project is to compare the Japanese and the German answers in order to analyse possible differences and to understand the cultural influences on technology assessment.

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00866.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractEvidence indicates that Japanese Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) have established a large number of R&D labs outside of Japan in recent years. It is suggested that these units play particular roles in global‐innovation strategies, which are themselves a key element in global competition. The first role played by such overseas units is to provide basic research inputs, that help the Japanese parent companies to derive the basis for a new generation of products. It appears that this role is especially prominent in Japanese MNEs, who are notably responsive to the high‐quality science‐base in certain countries. The second role of overseas R&D in global‐innovation strategies is to develop specific variants of new products that fully respond to distinctive consumer needs, and production conditions, in important national (or regional, e.g. European)

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00867.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractWith technology gaining greater recognition as a key factor in the economic performance of a country, foresight studies to identify emerging technologies get more attention. In a lot of countries foresight studies are carried out in order to target national resources to better improve economic competitiveness. This article describes foresight studies done in the Netherlands. Started as an experiment by the Ministry of Economic Affairs in 1989 they are now an integral part of the methods for determining technology policy in the Netherlands.The ministry defined three objectives for the foresight studies: (a) they must generate information for strategic technology policy; (b) they have to provide SME's with advance information about the possibilities for application of new technologies; (c) they have to stimulate the creation of networks between actors in industry, research and the educational system who are involved in a defined technology area. From six studies done so far (adhesives, chipcards, mecha‐tronics, matrix composites, signal processing and separation technology) the author shows how these objectives were met, which bottlenecks and which opportunities were identified and which activities were set up to exploit the situation in a certain technology area. She concludes that it is essential for the success of the foresight studies to bring together different stakeholders, to create consensus between them on future directions and to commit them to the result

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00868.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSynthetic diamond technology appears to have the capability of significantly changing the future technological landscape. Accordingly, The Institute for the Management of Technology regards it as a ‘marker’ technology. This paper suggests that there is a need to review expectations concerning synthetic diamond developments. Technology analysis is used as a method to understand and communicate the expectations. The history trends and applications are presented. Two challenges are revealed: First, High Pressure and High Temperature is being challenged by Chemical Vapour Deposition as the dominant manufacturing technology, suggesting that the latter should be monitored for breakthroughs. Second, the distinction between synthetic and natural gems is becoming harder to determine. This threat to the gem industry, in combination with the expanding industrial use, suggests that efforts should be pursued to establish the uniqueness of natural gems and to prevent the name ‘diamond’ from being ubiquitous

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00869.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes the use of hazard rate models for assessing emerging technologies. It suggests that on a global scale the decisions of researchers, in terms of their entrance, continuance, and exit from a field, can serve as an indicator of the rate of progress in the emergence of a new technology. The approach is demonstrated using the literature on magnetic bubble memory technology as a source of data to determine the contribution‐spans of researchers. Survival and hazard functions are estimated based upon the experience of more than seventeen‐hundred researchers contributing to the field over two decades.The author is indebted to Professor Raghu Garud (New York University) and Dr. Koenraad Debackere (Gent University) for their help in developing this avenue of research, and Professors Thomas Allen and Edward Roberts (MIT) for their support and encouragem

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00870.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00871.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00872.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY