摘要:

Radical changes, up and down, have taken place in the estimates of growth in total factor productivity in the U.S. made by different economists, or by the same economists at different times. If such estimates provide “some sort of measure of our ignorance,” as Abramovitz once put it, we seemed to be a lot less ignorant in 1927 (when Cobb and Douglas published their famous paper), or in 1967 (when Jorgenson and Griliches published theirs), than we were in the years between (when Schmookler, Abramovitz, Kendrick, and Denison completed their studies), or than we are today (when we have, or will soon have, revised estimates by Denison and by Kendrick, and new estimates by Christensen and Jorgenson). Viewed in this perspective, many questions may be raised about the significance of the current estimates that something like a third or more of the rate of increase in U.S. national output is “due” to increase in productivity, as well as about the concepts, data, and methods that underlie the estimates. A list of particular subjects worth considering for research is given and each is briefly di

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00921.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Some writers have emphasised the adverse environmental and social effects of economic growth, while others have claimed that countries with higher levels of social well‐being also tend to enjoy higher levels ofper capitaoutput. The aim of this study is to see what statistical light can be thrown on these issues by collating and comparing seventeen different social indicators for twenty countries in two bench‐mark years, 1951 and 1969.Two methods of analysing data are employed. First, all the countries are ranked for each indicator in turn for a particular year. Each country is then given a score ranging from 1 to 20 for each indicator, and the scores aggregated over the indicators to obtain an overall ranking score for every country. Secondly, the data are subjected to a principal components analysis to examine the correlation between the indicators. The first principal component is a potential candidate for use as a social index number. Changes in these social variables are then related to the rate of economic growth, and no evidence is found of a negative correlation between economic growth and social development. On the contrary, the results suggest a positive correlation between the two, although the strength of this relationship may be diminishing. It is not claimed that the results are in any sense the most preferred test of the form of the relationship between economic growth and social welfare, which must be a matter for subjective evaluation; rather they are seen as a contribution to the body of empirical evidence on this subj

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00922.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper considers the properties of the Divisia, or chain‐link, index, as they relate to the argument that this is the most appropriate index for use in studying the sources of economic growth. The great advantage of the Divisia index is alleged to be its “accuracy”, that is, its capacity to combine time series of prices and quantities to give a true reflection of the height of a utility or production function over time. The paper shows that there are circumstances where the confidence in the accuracy of the Divisia index is justified, but that the conditions required are very restrictive and typically do not obtain in the contexts where the Divisia index is used. Misplaced confidence in the Divisia index has led to errors of interpretation that might otherwise have been avoided, and has given rise to a distorted view of the process of economic g

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00923.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the available evidence relative to the distribution of income in a developing country, Colombia, over a relatively long span of years, roughly from the mid‐30s to the mid‐60s, especially in the context of the argument that recent growth has been characterized by worsening distribution and stable or declining incomes for lower income groups. The basic conclusions are that income distribution within agriculture worsened throughout the period, while non‐agricultural income probably worsened from the mid‐30s to the early 50s, improved from then to the mid‐60s, and then leveled off. During the period of improvement in non‐agricultural income, it appears that the overall distribution also improved somewhat. Over the period as a whole, the main gainers have been the second and third deciles from the top; the top decile appears to have lost. The bottom two deciles also appear t

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00924.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The paper analyzes annual revisions of figures for G.N.P. and 8 of its components in 40 countries. It arrives at the conclusion that first estimates are very often significantly biased downwards, especially Private Consumption, Fixed Investment, G.D.P. and G.N.P. Also successive revisions are sometimes correlated (negatively in most cases). The distribution of revisions differ as between developed and developing countries.

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00925.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper compares preliminary estimates (available about four months after the close of the period to which they refer) with final estimates (available three years after the close of the period) for certain national accounting aggregates and some of their major components. It concludes that preliminary estimates are consistently low for gross domestic product, exports, and public consumption, whereas imports, private consumption, and gross capital formation may be either low or high. The best early estimates, in the sense of closest to the final figures, are those for gross domestic product, imports, and exports.

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00926.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY