摘要:

Human capital concepts and measures have been applied and misapplied to an increasing variety of economic problem areas, two of which are examined.One of these is measurement of human capital gains and losses through migration. First requirements here are specification of the gaining or losing entities and of the relevant welfare functions. Alternatives in these respects are outlined. It is then argued that an appropriately adapted Fisherian present‐value assessment of human capital is normally the correct measure. Replacement costs are a legitimate substitute only for young migrants with little cumulated learning through experience and even then they have usually been fallaciously applied. Probability adjustments for migration and re‐migration are required in both cost and present‐value assessments of human capital effects of migration‐relevant policy alternatives, but the nature of those adjustments differs with the measurement approach used.For longitudinal analysis of contributions of human capital to economic growth, all measures of human capital stocks are inappropriate. A first principle of such analysis is measurement of resource inputs as flows. A coordinate principle requires that disaggregation be carried as far as necessary to distinguish essentially homogeneous categories of labor inputs. Though a way of separating out the schooling versus on‐the‐job‐experience components of human capital is illustrated, it requires some strong assumptions. Splitting men into abstracted human capital components is better avoided in growth analysis. Furthermore, categorization of labor‐force sub‐groups could equally well provide the basis for rate‐of‐return assessments of marginal changes in the pace of investments in humans. Such assessments would incorporate the main elements of capital theory except valuation of the capital asset itself.Ultimately, human resource measurements for use in major public policy decisions relating to either growth or migration (or both) must incorporate modifications or error components that allow for development phenomena that elude marginal assessments. Among developing countries especially, a consideration of educational diffusion processes and dynamic productivity scale effects, for example, could have critical measurement an

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1968.tb00943.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1968

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The national income and product account (United Nations concept) in current prices itemized by distributive shares and by type of expenditure is given for the period 1929–1937. The national income by industrial origin and the reproducible national wealth are computed for the year 1930. Differences between the U.N. and the material concept are explained by means of the 1939 data.The national product series in real terms are computed (a) by means of the price deflation of the types of expenditure, and (b) as the physical output of goods and services by industrial origin (since 1926). Major changes In distributive shares are explained with the help of Price‐cost analysis.The national product in real terms attains the lowest point in 1935 and not in 1933, as the industrial production and foreign trade series indicate. The structure of gross national expenditure reveals the same pattern of shifts, as is well known from other industrially developed countries during the business cycle.The development of national product by industrial origin, however, reveals some conspicuous singularities. Especially the uninterrupted increase in trade services (in terms of both persons engaged and turnover in constant prices) is an anomaly in the period of 1929–1937.Further, the Increase of rent (due to the gradual abolition of rent control), contrasting with the general fall of prices, led to a major shift in the distribution of national income during the early thirties. The other remarkable change resulting mainly from the changing price structure was the decrease of the farmers' share in national income.The production, transportation and distribution series in real terms reveal some time‐lags. These result partly from the shift from the foreign to the home market, partly from the compensatory effects of stock movements, and partly from the delayed adjustment of consumers to declining

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1968.tb00944.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1968

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Cet article résume brièvement les méthodes utilisées par le Service de la statistíque yougoslave dans le calcul du revenu national aux prix constants. En ce qui concerne l'industrie, la méthode utilisée consiste à multiplier le revenu net par unité dans l'annCe de base (distribué par type) par les quantités produites dans l'année en cours. Cet article discute également des autres méthodes possibles, et fait ressortir les raisons qui se trouvent à la base des choix effectués.La partie finale examine la validité des mesures obtenues; elle met en garde contre la tentation de procéder a des interprétations de caractére normatif sur la base de prix déterminés par voie administrative ou sujets a d'autres types de distortions. Des données, classées par industrie et par région, sont fournies p

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1968.tb00945.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1968

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A quarterly macro‐econometric model of Japan's postwar economy has been constructed for the period 1954–1965 FY on the basis of standardized quarterly national income accounts. The model is designed for facilitating short‐term economic forecasting and formulating adequate fiscal and monetary policy. Longer‐term factors such as labor mobility, technical progress, etc., were also considered in the model.The model consists of fifty‐three equations related to most of the macroeconomic variables in both money and real terms, and the equations were estimated in principle by the limited information maximum likelihood method. Principal exogenous variables related to policy instruments are government expenditures including transfers, parameters of tax functions, interest rate, and prices and fares controlled by the government, etc. In formulating the model, non‐linear specifications were used whenever found necessary.Results of our testing on its predictive capability indicated fairly satisfactory performances for our observation period and also for 1966 FY. Multipliers related to fiscal and monetary policy were also obtained, indicating the dynamic characteristics of the Japanese economy, in particular, represented by dynamic business fixed investment, as compared with corresponding multipliers of the U.S. models.Although the model is exploratory and to serve as a core for a more disaggregated “Master Model,” the usefulness of the model for our purposes and the workability of our quarterly national accounts data for model‐building have been recognized. The quarterly data, however, still remain to be improved especially in regard to consistency between income and expenditure and integration with flow

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1968.tb00946.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1968

数据来源: WILEY