摘要:

AbstractThere are many geologic resource assessment techniques available that can be used to estimate the hydrocarbon potential of frontier basins. The techniques do not, however, produce discovery rate forecasts, which are critical to government and industry planners. Various methods of predicting the discovery rate in frontier basins are reviewed and appraised within the context of the drilling history of Canada's Scotian Shelf. The reviewed models include a mean historical discovery rate technique, the exponential decline model, a logistic curve technique and a class of models based on a sampling without replacement approach to prediction. Models are found to perform best over the longer forecast horizons, with those models based on the sampling without replacement technique tending to perform best.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980110302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe S‐shaped growth curves such as Gompertz, logistic, normal and Weibuli are widely used for forecasting technological substitutions. A family of data‐based transformed (DBT) models, which are linear in the regression parameters, including the above‐mentioned four models as special cases has been shown to be quite useful for short‐term forecasts. This paper explores modeling the technology penetration data directly with assumed S‐shaped growth curves. The resulting models, which are nonlinear in the regression parameters, also incorporate proper dependence structure and power transformation. It appears that the nonlinear modeling is a viable alternative to the DBT and other conventional forecasting models in forecasting technological substitutions. Hence, an appropriate strategy is to consider the nonlinear modeling approaches as possible alternatives and use the data at hand to select, via pseudo‐cross‐validation, the best model for forecas

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980110303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe probability of mid‐air and near‐mid‐air collisions in terminal areas depends on a variety of factors such as visibility, number of air traffic controllers, communication channels, terrain, mix of aircraft and aircraft speeds, local densities of air traffic in specific subregions surrounding airports, as well as other measures of congestion. We develop, with the use of influence diagrams, a probabilistic model to analyze and predict mid‐air and near‐mid‐air collisions. The probability of near‐mid‐air and mid‐air collisions in the model is influenced by weather, traffic density, detection and collision avoidance maneuvres. Low‐hazard near‐mid‐air collisions (LNMACs) can escalate to critical near‐mid‐air collisions (CNMACs) and eventually to a mid‐air collision (MAC) with the probability of escalation reduced through the use of a collision‐avoidance system. The predictive probability of a collision in the model is the product of three factorsdensity, effectiveness of the collision‐avoidance system, and the conditional probability that independently of the collision‐avoidance system a CNMAC escalates, by chance alone, to a MAC. The paper obtains several conclusions based on sensitivity analysis of the model. Under the assumption that new designs of collision‐avoidance systems will result in much higher detection probabilities than presently available, it is important that both aircraft use the system if there is to be a significant improvement in collision avoidance. For maximum benefit, these collision‐avoidance systems should not reduce the probabilities of avoidance given that a n

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980110304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractPresented are estimates of demand equations and producer revenue projections for rural farm electricity consumers in the USA. Statistical tests include a Box‐Cox comparison of functional form, a Koyck‐distributed lag, and a contrast of average versus marginal prices. Producer revenue projections take account of the estimated demand equation and non‐continuous rate schedules for each of the electricity distributors. Multiple price equilibria result from differences in administered price schedules between sellers. The ‘effective’ price elasticity based upon forecasts which take account of the market circumstances is lower than the simple demand point elasticity but higher than found in some previou

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980110305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper estimates a forecasting equation for the hourly peak electricity demand one day in the future. The models incorporate deterministic influences such as holidays, stochastic influences such as average loads by building bivariate models, and exogenous influences such as the weather which is given a careful non‐linear formulation. Out‐of‐sample comparisons are made using an additional year of

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980110306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980110307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980110301

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY