摘要:

AbstractThis paper is concerned primarily with the evaluation and comparison of objective and subjective weather forecasts. Operational forecasts of three weather elements are considered: (1) probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence, (2) categorical (i.e. non‐probabilistic) forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures and (3) categorical forecasts of cloud amount. The objective forecasts are prepared by numerical‐statistical procedures, whereas the subjective forecasts are based on the judgements of individual forecasters. In formulating the latter, the forecasters consult information from a variety of sources, including the objective forecasts themselves. The precipitation probability forecasts are found to be both reliable and skilful, and evaluation of the temperature/cloud amount forecasts reveals that they are quite accurate/skilful. Comparison of the objective and subjective forecasts of precipitation occurrence indicates that the latter are generally more skilful than the former for shorter lead times (e.g. 12–24 hours), whereas the two types of forecasts are of approximately equal skill for longer lead times (e.g. 36–48 hours). Similar results are obtained for the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts. Objective cloud amount forecasts are more skilful than subjective cloud amount forecasts for all lead times. Examination of trends in performance over the last decade reveals that both types of forecasts for all three elements increased in skill (or accuracy) over the period, with improvements in objective forecasts equalling or exceeding improvements in subjective forecasts. The role and impact of the objective forecasts in the subjective weather forecasting process are discussed in some detail. The need to conduct controlled experiments and other studies of this process, with particular reference to the assimilation of information from different sources, is emphasized. Important characteristics of the forecasting system in meteorology are identified, and they are used to describe similarities and differences between weather forecasting and forecasting in other fields. Acquisition of some of these characteristics may be beneficial to other forecasting

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractPolitical forces in developing countries permeate and significantly shape the business environment. Yet the political information used by managers is usually general, subjective and superficial. Managers lack an appropriate analytical framework for systematically examining political factors and forecasting their impact on the firm. This paper attempts to present such a framework. The framework focuses on the impact of political forces on development strategies, public policies and policy instruments. It then discusses how the analysis of these factors can be made managerially relevant by integrating them with firm specific characteristics and corporate strategy. This approach departs from many of the traditional political forecasting techniques which only concentrate on macro‐level factors and indicator

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper reports results on building transfer function models with linear combinations of quick indicators as inputs for very short‐term prediction of the monthly time series of the volume of industrial production in Finland. The number of input variables in the transfer function models is reduced in two alternative ways: by replacing the original indicators by their two first principal components and by omitting certain indicators. The prediction accuracy of the transfer function models is checked outside the sample and found superior to that of corresponding ARIMA models. Neither of the two ways of reducing the number of input variables leads to consistently more accurate forecasts than the other. It is also found that the prediction accuracy of the transfer function models compares rather favourably with the preliminary values of the volume of industrial production published by the Central Statistical Office during the periods of rapid growt

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIt is assumed that demand for information that subjectively appears to be relevant for forecasting improves forecasting quality. To study this hypothesis a number of forecasting experiments were conducted. Fifty managers from the housing business, from banking, and from a research institution were asked to forecast interest rates, using a Delphi process. They communicated via a computer system, and, to support their judgements, they had access to a data bank that was stored in the same system. Their communication with the system was automatically recorded. Part of the data collected in these experiments is used to study the existence of a relationship between information activities and forecasting results. A weak positive relationship is found if non‐linear functions are tested, where information demand is corrected by those data retrievals that seem to have resulted from an inability to handle the information system. For further research a more general, albeit less informative, Boolean model is suggeste

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030405

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe growth curves suitable for forecasting market development are identified and described. The underlying theoretical basis, if any, for their use is examined, and published examples of their applications are given. Doubt is cast on the value of long‐term forecasts derived from growth curves applied to markets for consumables. The problems of choice between competing curves are demonstrated by means of some examples. The requirements that a growth curve should meet in order to be an appropriate forecasting tool are identified and illustrated. Many of the published examples of growth curve use are shown to be vulnerable to criticism under one or more of these criteri

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030406

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents an alternative derivation and a generalization of the non‐symmetric responding logistic model of Easingwood, Mahajan and Muller (1981) based upon a combination of experience curve and price elasticity effect

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030407

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030408

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030409

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030410

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030412

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY