摘要:

AbstractThe conflicting viewpoints about the quality of judgemental forecasts are examined and a model is proposed that attempts to resolve the conflict. The model sees forecasts as contingent upon the repertory of forecasting strategies that the forecaster brings to the forecasting task, the strategy that he or she selects as a function of the characteristics of the task, and the rigour with which he or she applies the strategy as a function of the motivating characteristics of the environment in which the task is encountered. The implications of differences in subjects' and experimenters' assumptions about which strategies are appropriate in experimental studies are examined, as are the implications of the differences between the motivating aspects of experimental and applied settings on both performance and on the generatizability of the results of experiments to applied judgemental forecasting.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980050302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractOur paper challenges the conventional wisdom that the flat maximum inflicts the ‘curse of insensitivity’ on the modelling of judgement and decision processes. In particular, we argue that this widely demonstrated failure on the part of conventional statistical methods to differentiate between competing models has a useful role to play in the development of accessible and economical applied systems, since it allows a low cost choice between systems which vary in their cognitive demands on the user and in their ease of development and implementation. To illustrate our thesis, we take two recent applications of linear scoring models used for credit scoring and for the prediction of sudden infant death.The paper discusses the nature and determinants of the flat maximum as well as its role in applied cognition. Other sections mention certain unanswered questions about the development of linear scoring models and briefly describe competing formulations for predict

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980050303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRecent developments in the signal processing field of electrical engineering have resulted in several frequency domain methods of extrapolating a time series. Insight gained in testing one such method, the Papoulis algorithm, has been used to suggest modifications which greatly improve its performance under most operating conditions where real data are concerned.The modified Papoulis method thus developed has been applied to electricity load forecasting over the short and medium term, as well as to world economic and energy data, to assess the cyclic structure present in each series about a trend.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980050304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare forecasts from least absolute value and least squares estimated regression equations. When outliers are present, the least absolute value forecasts are shown to be superior to least squares forecasts. The results emphasize the importance of exercising caution when using forecasts from least squares estimated regressions. Use of least absolute value regression (or some other robust regression method) instead of, or as an adjunct to, least squares is recommended. The comparison of forecasts from the two methods provides one way of assessing whether the least squares forecasts have been adversely affected by outliers. If outliers are present, the least absolute value regression forecasts can be used.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980050305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis note extends some recent results, achieved by Clemen, on constraining the weights of a combined forecast. There is a great potential for improving the ordinary least squares forecast by imposing linear restrictions, and it will be shown how this potential can be exhausted by using anF‐test. The corresponding decision procedure leads to a pre‐test forecast with good statistical propert

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980050306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980050307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980050301

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY