摘要:

AbstractA previous study questioned whether the published forecasts of one forecasting organization were valuable to users. A forecast was considered valuable if it differed significantly from a naive model in the sense of predicting the direction of change. The results indicated that it was not possible to show that the one‐quarter‐ahead predictions were valuable. However, the current‐quarter forecasts were valuable. This paper examines whether the results are robust. The forecasts of two additional organizations were examined and the time period was extended. The results are generally r

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130602

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper applies an algorithm for the solution of partial current information in rational expectation models to the quarterly Liverpool macroeconomic model of the U.K. The algorithm is shown to produce marginally superior results in forecasts both inex‐postandex‐anteforecasts and can be viewed as an additional tool for the forecaster's kit

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130603

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractCombining time‐ and frequency‐domain analysis demonstrates considerable improvement in modelling seasonal patterns in daily exchange rate changes. A high‐pass filter in the frequency domain is used, followed by the usual time‐domain analysis with GARCH models, to estimate day‐of‐the‐week effects in the spot returns on five exchanges against US dollars and the results are seen to compare favourably with those from a pure time‐domain

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130604

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractMuch business cycle research is based on an assumption of symmetric cycles, though it is frequently argued that the downturns are steeper and more short‐lived than the upturns; implying cyclical asymmetries. A new class of nonlinear autoregressive‐asymmetric moving average models is introduced. These models are able to deal with symmetric as well as asymmetric phenomena. A likelihood estimation procedure and a Wald test statistic for symmetry are presented. Evidence of asymmetry is found in US real GNP growth ra

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130605

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA new method is proposed for forecasting electricity load‐duration curves. The approach first forecasts the load curve and then uses the resulting predictive densities to forecast the load‐duration curve. A virtue of this procedure is that both load curves and load‐duration curves can be predicted using the same model, and confidence intervals can be generated for both predictions. The procedure is applied to the problem of predicting New Zealand electricity consumption. A structural time‐series model is used to forecast the load curve based on half‐hourly data. The model is tailored to handle effects such as daylight savings, holidays and weekends, as well as trend, annual, weekly and daily cycles. Time‐series methods, including Kalman filtering, smoothing and prediction, are used to fit the model and to achieve the desired forecasts of the load‐d

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130606

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130607

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130608

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980130601

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY