摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents the system of analysis used by the Xerox Corporation to relate the external environment to company decisions. The system is sophisticated and elaborate, comes to grips with such issues as product forecasting, market monitoring, activity monitoring, materials and labour cost analysis, and product price analysis. In addition, the system examines the longer‐term issues associated with corporate strategy, with the more recent initiatives directed toward the strategic focusThe Xerox case illustrates very well how externally provided forecasts of economic environments, both at home and abroad, can be used as inputs to a variety of econometric products to serve the individual corporation. The challenge in this work is to build the bridges from the external forces to the critical company decisions. That is a task which requires sophisticated tools and skilled professionals to accomplish. This case study shows what can be don

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIntuitive judgement forms the basis of decision making both by experts, in professional settings, and by people in everyday life. Psychologists have studied the rationality of intuitive judgements. In this paper three approaches to decision making will be discussed: unqualified rationalism, qualified rationalism and irrationalism. The first approach holds that man is essentially rational, the second that serious cognitive biases exist, and the third that thinking is strongly influenced by non‐cognitive sources of distortion, i.e. emotions and motives. Evidence on judgement is reviewed and found to support the last two approaches. Various ways of improving judgements, as suggested by the three basic viewpoints, are then presente

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe accuracy of total live birth forecasts issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Census was analysed. Forecast accuracy has not improved significantly since 1950. Further, the forecasts are not more accurate than several naive alternatives. Moving from a period methodology to a cohort methodology improved forecast accuracy for certain forecasts. The Bureau of the Census systematically underestimated total births in the upswing and overestimated in the downswing.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractUsing the method of ARIMA forecasting with benchmarks developed in this paper, it is possible to obtain forecasts which take into account the historical information of a series, captured by an ARIMA model (Box and Jenkins, 1970), as well as partial prior information about the forecasts. Prior information takes the form of benchmarks. These originate from the advice of experts, from forecasts of an annual econometric model or simply from pessimistic, realistic or optimistic scenarios contemplated by the analyst of the current economic situation. The benchmarks may represent annual levels to be achieved, neighbourhoods to be reached for a given time period, movements to be displayed or more generally any linear criteria to be satisfied by the forecasted values. The forecaster may then exercise his current economic evaluation and judgement to the fullest extent in deriving forecasts, since the laboriousness experienced without a systematic method is avoided.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010405

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSome levels of economic activity change over the days of the week. Also, the composition of the calendar changes over the years so that a particular month contains a different configuration of days of the week each year. The effects of the changing composition of the calendar upon a monthly time series is called trading day variation. This paper discusses one way to model trading day variation in monthly time series and how this model can be used to obtain improved forecasts over univariate ARIMA models. The ideas are illustrated on an actual data set.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010406

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe construction of forecasts using interactive data analysis systems is greatly aided by the availability of graphical procedures. Data exploration, model identification and estimation, and interpretation of final forecasts are made considerably easier by the visual relay of information. This article discusses some recent developments in time series graphics designed to assist in the forecasting process. A discussion of requirerients for effective use of graphics in interactive forecasting is included as illustrated through an application of the Box‐Jenkins methodology. Illustrations are included from the STATGRAPHICS system, a prototype implementation in AP

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010407

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA simple model of particular socio‐economic and technical environment proves useful in forecasting and planning. The specific application forecasts air traffic at King Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, through a number of explanatory variablesThe purpose of the model is to explain and forecast the change in growth rates of passenger flow through the airport. The dynamics of passenger flow are linked to the dynamics of the oil‐based economy of Saudi Arabia and the global economic and business environm

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010408

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010409

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010410

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980010411

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY