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| 11. |
Model‐Based Optimization of Infectivity ParametersA Study of the Early Epidemic in San Francisco |
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Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes,
Volume 3,
Issue 6,
1990,
Page 631-643
David Ahlgren,
Miroslaw Gorny,
Alex Stein,
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PDF (829KB)
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摘要:
By combining dynamic modeling of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission with mathematical optimization techniques, we calculate values of epidemiological parameters characterizing the early epidemic (1978–1986) among homosexual and bisexual men in San Francisco. The seroconversion fraction data reported by the San Francisco hepatitis B vaccine trials cohort study for this period is accurately simulated by a model assuming varying infectivity among three stages of HIV infection (early antigen stage, HIV antibody-positive stage, and AIDS stage). Using optimization techniques, we generate curves of the annual number of new partners and the annual number of risk contacts as functions of time. We project future case rates using optimized parameter values, and we study the sensitivity of these projections to variations in parameters, including the population size and the incubation period.
ISSN:0894-9255
出版商:OVID
年代:1990
数据来源: OVID
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| 12. |
AIDS Mortality Among Puerto Ricans and Other Hispanics in New York City, 1981–1987 |
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Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes,
Volume 3,
Issue 6,
1990,
Page 644-644
Barbara Menendez,
Ernest Drucker,
Sten Vermund,
Rafael Castano,
Ralphie Perez-Agosto,
Francisco Parga,
Steve Blum,
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PDF (302KB)
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摘要:
Analysis of AIDS mortality data for New York City for 1981–1987 reveals that Puerto Ricans represent the racial/ethnic group most severely affected by this city's AIDS epidemic. Cumulative age-adjusted AIDS mortality rates among Puerto Rico-born males are significantly higher (362 per 100,000) than among blacks (267), whites (182), or other Hispanic (217) males, and cumulative age-specific mortality rates for males are highest for the Puerto Rico-born in every adult age group. AIDS proportional mortality analysis indicates that in 1987 the proportion of all deaths due to AIDS was 10% among those Puerto Rican-born, 12% among other Hispanics (which includes at least 50% United States-born Puerto Ricans), 6% among blacks, and 2% among whites.
ISSN:0894-9255
出版商:OVID
年代:1990
数据来源: OVID
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