摘要:

In an influential paper published in Science, Nordhaus employs an integrated climate‐economy model to study climate change. He finds that optimizing climate change policy requires low levels of controls on emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper follows his pioneering methodology but challenges his conclusions. Nordhaus's results depend crucially on certain parameters such as the discount rate and the autonomous decline in energy intensity of production. However, choosing a set of different though equally plausible values for these parameters causes the control rate to rise substantially. This translates into a greater level of action for slowing climate chang

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00719.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

An important human welfare implication of climate involves effects of interannual variation in temperature and precipitation on agriculture. Year‐to‐year variations in U.S. climate result from El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a quasi‐periodic redistribution of heat and momentum in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The study described here represents a preliminary assessment of the value to the entire U.S. agricultural sector of improved ENSO forecasts in the southeastern United States. This interdisciplinary assessment combines data and models from meteorology, plant sciences, and economics under a value of information framework based on Bayesian decision theory. An economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector uses changes in yields for various ENSO phases to translate physical (yield) effects of ENSO changes into economic effects on producers and on domestic and foreign consumers. The value of perfect information to agriculture is approximately $145 million. The economic value of an imperfect forecast is $96 million. These results suggest that increases in forecast accuracy have substantial economic value to agr

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00720.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper questions the claim that U.S. immigration should be reduced because the economy can no longer absorb immigrants as it has in the past. Analysis of male hourly wages shows that the effect of immigration on wages did not change between 1980 and 1990. Further, immigration had no negative effects on wages in 1980 or 1990. These results suggest that the capacity of the labor market to absorb immigrants has not been reduced. Additional analysis shows that, controlling for personal characteristics, the hourly wages of the average native and immigrant worker in areas of high and medium immigration relative to areas of low immigration increased between 1980 and 1990. However, Latino immigrants are affected negatively by immigration.

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00721.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper describes five new welfare reform programs being tested in six areas of the United States and Canada. These programs all use financial incentives to encourage selfsufficiency among welfare recipients. Some programs also provide employment and training services. A microsimulation model is used to predict the impacts of the two most generous programs: the Canadian Self‐Sufficiency Project (SSP) and the Minnesota Family Investment Program (MFIP). The simulation results suggest that SSP and MFIP will modestly increase the number of welfare recipients who work. However, because SSP has a fulltime work requirement and MFIP does not, only SSP is predicted to generate an increase in fulltime employme

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00007.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper discusses alternative privatization schemes for public housing in light of economic efficiency, “policy efficiency,” and equity. The analysis shows that removing restrictions to resale by the purchasers is the key to improving economic efficiency and that restricting resales to target group members is the key to achieving policy efficiency. Further, removing restrictions to bidding (viz. open competition) among eligible households is essential for both economic efficiency and equity. The paper discusses the trade‐off between various policy objectives inherent in some of the schemes. It recommends the “eligibility model” of privatization, under which households can resell their public housing units any time offer purchase to any household within the group targeted by the government for assistance as determined by the gz

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00722.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In 1960, the Federal Aviation Administration put in place the Age 60 rule forcing airline pilots to retire upon reaching the age of 60 years. This paper uses data from the National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration to determine if having pilots above 59 years of age carries a social cost. Statistical evidence indicates that the severity of aircraft accidents is related to pilot age for some classes of pilots but not for others. Findings are that small‐airplane accidents tend to be more severe for pilots over 59 with private and commercial licenses than for younger pilots with equal qualifications. Thus, some (though not convincing) evidence suggests that private and commercial pilots above 59 years of age impose a greater social cost on the flying public than do younger pilots. However, among ATP pilots—that is, those who are licensed to fly large airplanes—no evidence indicates that pilots over 59 have more severe accidents when flying small airplanes than do younger ATP pilots flying such airplanes. Moreover, no evidence indicates that age is a factor in serious and fatal accidents for ATP pilots flying large airplanes up to the mandatory retirement age of 60 years. The extra screening and training of ATP pilots may explain the differences in accident severity between these and other p

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00723.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Fears that the United States is losing its leadership position in technology have prompted the Clinton administration to develop an activist policy position that supports private sector research and development activities. Tantamount to picking “winners and losers,” the government, whether by mandate or by establishing a set of parameters guiding some type of competitive application process, would decide which technologies warrant future development with taxpayer supported funding. However, government subsidies designed to promote the development of new technologies often come at the expense of the diffusion of those same technologies. By limiting diffusion, these policies can impose substantial costs on society. Eliminating problems associated with current government policies and fostering the diffusion of new technologies requires limiting the assignment of property rights and restructuring the rewards associated with inventive activity. Such a system would promote the diffusion (and ultimately) the creation of new technologies. This paper proposes a forced royalty system as a potential altern

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00724.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Economics generally, and benefit‐cost analysis in particular, are not substitutes for values. They are tools of analysis that rest on assumptions about values. The primary role for economics in normative analysis is to provide information about efficiently achieving that which is valued, not to make the decision. The major economic tool for analyzing normative issues is benefit‐cost analysis. This paper considers the role of benefit‐cost analysis in addressing the sustainability debate. The notion of “sustain‐ability” raises concerns about values held by society. The analysis here addresses several issues within the sustainability debate: concerns about intergenerational equity including the appropriate discount rate for projects with environmental consequences; implications for burdens on future generations; and the moral basis for benefit‐cost analysis. The authors argue that the correct discount rate for all such projects is the social rate of time preference, and that suggestions for using lower discount rates result from attempting to prevent inequities by adjusting prices. Additionally, the authors argue that economic analysis, especially benefit‐cost analysis, can play a useful role in providing information to decision makers, who ultimately will face resource allocation issues as they seek to implement policies promoting

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00725.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Empirical studies provide compelling evidence that economic agents do not adopt the complete range of energy‐efficient technologies that are cost‐effective under prevailing prices and market conditions. Analysts commonly attribute this anomaly to the use of high discount rates in energy‐related decisions‐an interpretation that is difficult to reconcile with standard models of rational choice. This paper recasts the controversy from the perspective of economic theory and finds that market failures related to asymmetric information, bounded rationality, and transaction costs are major contributors to the so‐called “effi

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00726.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper surveys recent empirical literature on effects of monetary policy on long‐term interest rates. Most studies reviewed here suggest that tightening monetary policy results in higher long‐term interest rates. But available evidence suffers from conceptual and empirical problems and fails to indicate the magnitude of short‐run and long‐run policy effects on long rates. Also, recent studies have not investigated the possibility of shifts in recent‐year effects of monetary policy on long rates. Finally, the paper offers a policy perspective on limitations of existing evidence and suggests future research on monetary policy effects on l

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00727.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY