摘要:

CONCLUSIONInitially we explained the main part of our model which enabled us to estimate and compare the long run and global economic effects of alternative transportation facility plans.Usually the short run effects of this kind of regional economic impact have been analyzed by input‐output models, and the long run effects by econometric models. However, in this model, the input‐output model and the econometric model were combined so as to enable us to analyze the global and long run economic effects. The interregional trade pattern coefficients and input coefficients change endogenously in each year in this model. It has previously been assumed that the fixedness of interregional trade pattern coefficients and input coefficients are the weakest points in applying the interregional input‐output model for long run studies. In our model, on the contrary, variation of these coefficients has central importance.We then showed the results which were obtained from applying this model to a comparison of the long run economic effects of alternative bridge construction plans over the Japan Inland Sea. The results obtained from this demonstrative calculation are reasonable. Thus, we think, this model has sufficient applicability to the comparison of economic effects of alternative plans for nationwide transportation facility improvement. However, the variations of production cost differentials between regions are given exogenously in this model. To make them endogenous, agglomeration economies should be considered more precisely. In that case, the applicability and the precision of this model could be imp

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00054.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00055.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

CONCLUSIONIn this paper, firstly a model of the variation of regional population was constructed, based on the work of Klaassen and the wage and job opportunity theories. Secondly, the reduced form of the model was made and fitted to the data of Japan for 1965 and the time period 1960–1965. The model was successfully fitted to the data.It was therefore concluded that in Japan, the mechanism of determination of a regional population could be shown by the model proposed in this paper, and the population in a region was determined by the natural increase of population and the economic activity of the region.Moreover, the fact that the densely populated region in Japan has higher population growth as the region has higher economic activity and higher natural increase ratio of population was foun

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00056.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYStarting with the aggregate demand model of economics, a model of demand for intercity air travel is developed which contains the gravity model as a less general submodel. The more general model is referred to as the alternative opportunities model since it takes account of alternative destinations open to travelers, not just origin and destination as does the gravity model. The demand model approach has the virtue of providing a theoretical basis for understanding and analyzing the gravity model.The gains from treating alternative locations and demand motivation variables are a substantial increase in explanatory power over that yielded by the gravity model, the identification of statistically significant determinants of air travel, and better measurement of the coefficients of population and distance by taking account of these other variables and somewhat better forecasts.A shortcoming of procedures used here is aggregation of air trips with different purposes and thus lack of clear specification of the size of effects of different variables on different types of travel. Overcoming this difficulty must await origin‐destination data listed by trip purpos

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00057.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSBasically, we have attempted to show the following in the course of setting out the algebra of regression analysis of selected regional employment multiplier models:(1) When the basic features of the model are shaped by the assumption of an unlagged response of local employment to changes in export employment, the least squares estimates of the multipliers are highly sensitive to the export coefficients vectorA, given the sample observation matrixX. In a completely disaggregated model such as Equation (21), the multipliers are solely determined by the export coefficients and thus are entirely independent of sample observations. However, this independence does not hold in the case of a partially disaggregated model. The identity relation is also destroyed when a lag relationship is introduced into a completely disaggregated model.(2) A simple lag model produces results bascially different from those obtained by an unlagged model if the overall differences between current and lagged observations are significant.(3) Given a matrix of sample observations on employment, it is possible to estimate the upper limits of a least‐squares aggregate multiplier and its variance simply from knowledge of the export coefficients(4) The export coefficients vector has also an important bearing upon the correlation coefficient. The correlation is unity if and only if the export coefficients vector is proportional to the local employment coefficients vector, while it is zero if and only if the export coefficients vector is a vector all of whose elements are one. Also, the correlation coefficient is equal to one when a completely disaggregated model is used.There is finally the question of what these results mean in terms of the formulation of a multiplier model. First of all, in view of the crucial importance of the export coefficients and the difficulties of estimating them, most of the existing models do not seem to offer promising results. Furthermore, all the models examined here have made some simplifying assumption with respect to the constancy of the export coefficients. It remains highly uncertain whether these coefficients are reasonably stable over time. Of course, it would be theoretically more acceptable to relax the assumption of the invariance of export coefficients and to obtain such coefficients at different points of time for each industry. However, this would be accomplished only at the cost of increased difficulties of estimating larger numbers of export coefficients. In addition, there is some doubt as to the validity of the assumption that export employment is proportional to export sales.Since a lag relationship is important not only in terms of attempts to formulate multiplier models more realistically, but also in terms of its significant effect on the multiplier values obtained, the nature and the form of a lagged response and its estimation problems need to be investigated in depth.Finally, problems of least squares bias and efficiency, inference, and prediction which may arise in the context of various models presented here remain to be investigated. A detailed analysis of such problems must be the subject of further investigatio

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00058.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00059.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The luster of economic growth, the existence of depressed regions, and the fear of competition from giveaway programs in other states have all resulted in state governments adopting a rash of programs designed to encourage a strong manufacturing base for their economy.Many economists feel uneasy about the rapid spread of such industrial incentive programs as tax breaks, government loans, and industrial revenue bonds.1The literature of public finance, development, and regional economics contains many interesting studies examining the wisdom of these undertakings. This paper hopes to contribute by developing a method of benefit‐cost analysis for appraisal of industrial incentive programs. Even though the model is constructed for and applied to the analysis of state government industrial development loans, the principles formulated should be easily adaptable to the assessment of other types of regional development programs.A secondary objective of the paper is to discuss the first empirical application of a model which accounts for possible differences between the social opportunity cost of foregone investment and that of foregone consumption

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00060.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00061.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00062.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0022-4146    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00063.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1970

数据来源: WILEY