摘要:

The events of the 1970’s—both the ‘‘energy crises’’ and the measures taken to alleviate them—changed our ways of thinking about energy. We now look at energy consumption as a largely substitutable means to various ends, not a goal or a measure of progress in and of itself. Energy demand growth has dropped markedly, even as the economy has grown. But there are many issues yet to be resolved if the United States is to have a comprehensive, rotational energy strategy. This paper tackles four of them: Is there a place for continued government economic and regulatory intervention in the energy marketplace? What should be the federal role in energy research and development? What are our prospects for new discoveries in domestic oil and gas? What is the future of nuclear power in the United States? The author believes that the best way to solve our energy problems is to gauge, and then reflect in our energy policy, the true costs and benefits of energy production and consumption. He concludes that conservation investments have proven to be so rewarding that energy efficiency should be receiving a major amount of attention from energy policy makers for reasons of economic efficiency and in order to minimize the impact of future crises.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35457

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

The validity of beliefs widely held in 1974 namely (1) the societal well‐being depends on ever greater use of energy and (2) the physicist is qualified to work on problems of energy supply but not on problems of energy use is questioned. New questions are raised concerning energy and well being and role of physicist in energy planning and forecasting. (AIP)

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35454

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

A wide range of high efficiency, energy‐using technologies have become commercially available in recent years, in North America, Western Europe, and Japan. Contrary to the widely held view that these technologies are relevant mainly to the rich, already‐industrialized countries, we show that from an economic perspective, energy efficiency improvements often make as much or even more sense for capital‐poor, developing countries.We illustrate the relevance to developing countries of more energy‐efficient end‐use technology, with an analysis of the economics of energy‐efficient refrigerators and light bulbs in the context of the electrical system of Brazil, from both the consumer’s perspective and that of society. We show that the required extra investments in energy efficiency generate attractive returns in electricity savings for the consumer. Moreover, for the country as a whole, investments in energy efficiency can lead to net savings of scarce capital resources, by reducing the need for new electrical generating capacity. Because electricity in Brazil is largely based on low‐cost hydro‐electric power, showing the importance of energy efficiency improvements in this situation is an ‘‘acid‐test’’ for the relevance of energy efficiency to developing countries more generally.Capturing the economic benefits of energy efficiency improvements probably requires that utilities be transformed from being energy supply companies into companies that market energy services, by facilitating investments on the ‘‘customer’s side of the meter’’ as well as in new supplies. Some utilities in industrialized countries are already beginning to shift their activities in this direction. An even more active utility role may be desirable in developing countries, because there most of the population is poor, and the poor tend to be far more first‐cost sensitive, and thus resistant to making investments in energy efficiency improvement, than higher income consumers.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35459

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

A brief review is presented on engineering/economic end‐use energy models. End‐use modeling is described within the broades context of an analytical framework giving statistically sound and valid forecasts. Some aspects of the end‐use modeling problem, associated with technology and technology characterization are high‐lighted. The results of policy application are given. (AIP)

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35471

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

Although some increases in the adoption of energy‐efficient practices have been noted, only a small fraction of the potential savings are being realized, perhaps because human behavior is too complex for existing economic models. The rational‐economic model is able to predict behavior in many situations, but it has limitations. To design effective public policy, the social, cognitive, and personal forces, that in addition to the economic realities define the situation, must be understood. This chapter examines one aspect of current energy conservation policy, the home energy audit program mandated by the Residential Conservation Service, and attempts to show how existing social psychological research might be beneficially applied.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35483

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

Today’s 85 million U.S. homes use $100 billion of fuel and electricity ($1150/home). If their energy intensity (resource energy/ft2) were still frozen at 1973 levels, they would use 18% more. With well‐insulated houses, need for space heat is vanishing. Superinsulated Saskatchewan homes spend annually only $270 for space heat, $150 for water heat, and $400 for appliances, yet they cost only $2000±1000 more than conventional new homes.The concept of Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is used to rank conservation technologies for existing and new homes and appliances, and to develop supply curves of conserved energy and a least cost scenario. Calculations are calibrated with the BECA and other data bases. By limiting investments in efficiency to those whose CCE is less than current fuel and electricity prices, the potential residential plus commercial energy use in 2000 AD drops to half of that estimated by DOE, and the number of power plants needed drops by 200.For the whole buildings sector, potential savings by 2000 are 8 Mbod (worth $50B/year), at an average CCE of $10/barrel.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35484

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

Heat loss from houses obeys the standard physics of conductive, convective, and radiative heat transfer. However, in a real house two‐ and three‐dimensional conduction can greatly increase heat loss relative to a simple one‐dimensional model, and subtle convective phenomena can produce additional heat loss anomalies. Radiative processes can interact with conduction and convection with surprising results. Recent developments in modeling these heat transfer processes are presented in this paper. Steady state formulations are adequate for understanding elusive heat loss paths. Non‐steady‐state models permit the measurement of house heat loss from short term data and permit the characterization of transient heat flow processes. The applications of several steady and unsteady heat loss models to energy conservation problems are reviewed in this paper.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35452

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

As energy prices rise, newly energy aware designers use better tools and technology to create energy efficient buildings. Thus the U.S. office stock (average age 20 years) uses 250 kBTU/ft2of resource energy, but the guzzler of 1972 uses 500 (up×2), and the 1986 ASHRAE standards call for 100–125 (less than 25% of their 1972 ancestors). Surprisingly, the first real cost of these efficient buildings has not risen since 1972. Scaling laws are used to calculate heat gains and losses of buildings to obtain the &Dgr;T(free) which can be as large as 15–30 °C (30–60 °F) for large buildings. The net thermal demand and thermal time constants are determined for the Swedish Thermodeck buildings which need essentially no heat in the winter and no chillers in summer. The BECA and other data bases for large buildings are discussed. Off‐peak cooling for large buildings is analyzed in terms of saving peak‐electrical power. By downsizing chillers and using cheaper, off‐peak power, cost‐effective thermal storage in new commercial buildings can reduce U.S. peak power demands by 10–20 GW in 15 years. A further potential of about 40 GW is available from adopting partial thermal storage and more efficient air conditioners in existing buildings.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35453

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

The Princeton Scorekeeping Method, or ‘‘PRISM’’, is a statistical procedure which uses available billing and weather data to produce accurate estimates of saved energy. Derived from simple physical principles, the method provides physical descriptors as well as a weather‐normalized index of consumption for each house analyzed. While similar in some respects to weather‐adjustment techniques used in‐house by utilities and others, this work differs in its long‐range objective: a standardized approach which is equally applicable to all fuels, which can be used for a wide range of climates and building types, and which offers accurate diagnostics. This chapter summarizes the scorekeeping methodology—its motivation, it current status, and needed areas of expansion.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35455

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP

摘要:

Buildings have been designed to use solar gains for winter heating for several millenia, but the quantitative basis for passive solar design has only been developed in the last decade. A simplified lumped capacitance model is used to provide insight into the physics of passive building behavior. Three passive design methods are described: the Solar Load Ratio (SLR) method based on correlations to simulation results; the Gordon/Zarmi closed form analytical mode;; and the ‘‘unutilizability’’ model of Monsen and Klein. Model predictions are compared with measured results; agreement is good if measured building characteristics are used. Numerous passive houses use less than 2 Btu/ft2‐DD for auxiliary heating and consensus is developing that modest levels of passive glazing combined with superinsulation techniques can provide the best feature of both approaches.

ISSN:0094-243X    

DOI:10.1063/1.35456

出版商:AIP    

年代:1985

数据来源: AIP