摘要:

The technology S‐curve is a useful framework describing the substitution of new for old technologies at the industry level. In this paper I use information from the technological history of the disk drive industry to examine the usefulness of the S‐curve framework for managers at thefirmlevel in planning for new technology development. Because improvements in over‐all disk drive product performance result from the interaction of improvedcomponenttechnologies and newarchitecturaltechnologies, each of these must be monitored and managed. This paper focuses on component technology S‐curves, and a subsequent paper, also published in this issue of the journal, examines architectural technology Scurves. Improvement in individual components followed S‐curve patterns, but I show that the flattening of S‐curves is a firm‐specific, rather than uniform industry phenomenon. Lack of progress in conventional technologies may be theresult, rather than the stimulus, of a forecast that the conventional technology is maturing, and some firms demonstrated the ability to wring far greater levels of performance from existing component technologies than other firms. Attacking entrant firms evidenced a distinct disadvantage versus incumbent firms in developing and using new component technologies. Firms pursuing aggressive Scurve switching strategies in component technology development gained no strategic advantage over firms whose strategies focused on extending the life of established component

ISSN:1059-1478    

DOI:10.1111/j.1937-5956.1992.tb00001.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This is the second of two papers in which I use information from the technological history of the disk drive industry to examine the usefulness of the S‐curve framework for managers at the firm level in planning for new technology development. In this article I show that it is inarchitectural, rather than component innovation, that entrant firms exhibit an attacker's advantage. A conventionally drawn sequence of intersecting S‐curves is a misleading conceptualization of the substitution process for new architectural technologies, because it characterizes architectural innovations strictly in technical terms. Innovations in architectural technologies frequently redefine the functionality of products and address product performance needs in new or remote markets, rather than mainstream ones. Such innovations in architectural technologies entail market innovation as much as technology development, and it is in their ability to aggressively enter emerging or remote markets that entrant firms exhibit an attacker's advantage. I propose a different S‐curve framework for processes of architectural technology change that comprehends both its technological and market as

ISSN:1059-1478    

DOI:10.1111/j.1937-5956.1992.tb00002.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We present a new paradigm of hierarchical decision making in production planning and capacity expansion problems under uncertainty. We show that under reasonable assumptions, the strategic level management can base the capacity decision on aggregated information from the shopfloor, and the operational level management, given this decision, can derive a production plan for the system, without too large a loss in optimality when compared to simultaneous determination of optimal capacity and production decisions.The results are obtained via an asymptotic analysis of a manufacturing system with convex costs, constant demand, and with machines subject to random breakdown and repair. The decision variables are purchase time of a new machine at a given fixed cost and production plans before and after the purchase. The objective is to minimize the discounted costs of investment, production, inventories, and backlogs. If the rate of change in machine states such as up and down is assumed to be much larger than the rate of discounting costs, one obtains a simpler limiting problem in which the random capacity is replaced by its mean. We develop methods for constructing asymptotically optimal decisions for the original problem from the optimal decisions for the limiting problem. We obtain error estimates for these constructed decisions.

ISSN:1059-1478    

DOI:10.1111/j.1937-5956.1992.tb00003.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Station interdependence, blocking caused by finite buffer capacities, and periodic material handling make modeling and analysis of kanban‐controlled lines challenging. Also, one must consider flows of material as well as flows of kanbans. The many models given in the literature contribute to the confusion and debate that often characterize kanban research. The only element common to all kanban systems appears to be finite buffer capacities. I describe blocking by total queue size, blocking by part type, and the single‐card and twocard systems. I review the kanban literature and organize it by type of system and decision area. First, I discuss elements of system design, including setting kanban numbers, performance measures, material‐handling frequencies, and container sizes. Then I cover the production control topics of sequencing and batch‐sizing. I conclude with a comparison of kanban and conventional methods of production control and with suggestions for future r

ISSN:1059-1478    

DOI:10.1111/j.1937-5956.1992.tb00004.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY