摘要:

This paper analyzes quantitatively the design of the Ocean Ranger off‐shore oil drilling rig that capsized and sank on February 15, 1982 off the coast of Canada. A review of the actual disaster is also included based on evidence gathered by the Canadian Royal Commission. The risk analysis includes the construction of a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) table, a fault tree, and a quantitative evaluation including common cause failure of the rig components. In the case of the Ocean Ranger ballast control system, it was shown that the analysis was able both to successfully model the catastrophic system failure of the portholes, the actual system failure mode, and identify a common cause failure mode of the pump system. This study represents an application of reliability and risk techniques to the oil services industr

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01219.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The present value of the costs of injuries and deaths associated with each unit of a product is a useful number in conducting cost‐benefit analysis at the CPSC. Before a remedy is known, this value indicates the approximate amount that it is worth spending on a fix; similarly, if a fix is proposed, this number indicates whether it is cost‐justified. The method of analysis is applied to all‐terrain vehicles. Injury costs per vehicle are estimated. Determinants of accidents are estimated using a logit regression model applied to surveys of users and of accident victims; this indicates factors associated with accidents, and is used to estimate marginal probabilities. Costs of various vehicle components are estimated using a hedonic price index. This information (injury costs, accident probabilities, and component cost) is combined in a benefit–cost analysis of proposed r

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01220.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Using group totals, young drivers, male drivers, and especially young male drivers are substantially over‐represented in terms of both traffic accidents and traffic‐related convictions. On the other hand, when accidents and convictions are considered in terms of their rates while the person is actually driving, older drivers and female drivers gain in importance, with the female drivers' traffic accident rate and rates for some convictionsexceedingthe male drivers' rates. Similarly, the older drivers' accident rate and rates on some convictions exceeded the younger drivers' rates when considered in terms of driving exposure. In addition, these findings lead one to speculate that recent driving exposure more than driver age is the central factor in traffic accident involvement. The implications for policy makers and educators are clear. Although young male drivers are undeniably a legitimate focus for traffic accident countermeasures, they should not be targeted at the expense of drivers who drive less but have as high or higher accident rates—female and older dr

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01221.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Decision analysis is used to examine whether residential smoke detectors should be required by law. Statistics pertaining to fire incidence, fire death, smoke detector efficacy, and the consequences of fire are examined for accuracy and availability and combined in a decision model. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the model inputs. Included in the analysis is the idea that homes with detectors may have lower death rates due to the characteristics of those who purchase detectors rather than the detectors themselves. Results from the base case estimate show an expected cost of $65,000 per life saved when a law is enacted. This value lies well below the value implied by spending on other public safety programs.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01222.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper discusses the following key issues concerning human exposure to dioxins and furans emitted from typical, modern MSW incinerators: (1) Are MSW incinerators the major source of PCDD/PCDF input into the environment? (2) Are environmental concentrations around MSW incinerators substantially elevated relative to background levels? And (3) are MSW incinerators the major source of human exposure to PCDDs and PCDFs? Current scientific evidence indicates that (1) combustion sourcesin general(including steel mills, copper smelting plants, motor vehicles, pulp and paper mills, and MSW incinerators) are major sources of PCDD/PCDF input in the environment; (2) environmental concentrations of PCDDs and PCDFs around operating MSW incinerators are not substantially elevated; and (3) 99% of human exposure to PCDDs and PCDFs is from background contamination, even for individuals living near a modern MSW incinerator.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01223.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In light of the Armitage‐Doll multistage carcinogenesis theory, this paper examines the assumption that an additive relative risk relationship is indicative of two carcinogens that affect the same stage in the cancer process. We present formulas to compute excess cancer risks for a variety of patterns for limited exposure durations to two carcinogens that affect the first and penultimate stages; and using an index of synergy proposed by Thomas (1982), we find a number of these patterns to produce additive, or nearly additive, relative risk relationships. The consistent feature of these patterns is that the two exposure periods are of short duration and occur close togethe

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01224.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Eight major factors of risk comparisons are presented, and the conventional reduction of the risk concept to a unidimensional format is challenged. The similarities between risk issues and other issues of the social decision process are stressed. It is concluded that risk decisions are part of the general political process, and cannot be isolated from this. Expert assessments should be presented in a way that reflects the complexity of the subject matter, instead of repressing it.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01225.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Agency representatives often believe that if they could only find ways to explain risk data more clearly, communities would accept risk that scientists see as minimal, and take seriously risks scientists see as serious. While explaining the data effectively is important, agencies and industries need to place a greater priority on understanding community concerns, involving communities in risk decisions, and developing trust and credibility.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01226.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABC, CBS, and NBC's carefully crafted and expensively produced evening news broadcasts devoted 1.7% of their air time to 564 stories about man‐made environmental risks during the period from January 1984 to February 1986. Little relationship was found between amount of coverage and public health risk. Instead, the networks appeared to be using traditional journalistic determinants of news (timeliness, proximity, prominence, consequence, and human interest) plus the broadcast criterion of visual impact to determine the degree of coverage of risk issues. Government, industry, and citizens accounted for two‐thirds of the sources cited by the networks. Experts and spokespersons for environmental advocacy groups were sparsely used as sources. Given the media's need for news pegs, acute and chronic risk stories were covered differently. Acute risk stories were reported in a clearly defined cycle, peaking on the second day with on‐the‐scene reports and film‐clips of devastation. In keeping with a decrease in visual drama, later reports were shorter and emphasized legal and political considerations. Chronic risk coverage followed the release of new scientific, legal, or political in

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01227.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01228.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY