摘要:

The relative safety of driving and flying is important in many situations that involve selecting a mode of transportation. The traditional view, that flying via scheduled airlines is safer than driving, has recently been challenged by Evanset al.(1)They concluded that for a low‐risk driver it is safer to drive on rural interstate highways (the safest roads) than to fly if the trip length is less than 602 miles. We reestimated the fatality probabilities for flying by taking into account that the risk of flying is dependent on the number of nonstop segments flown, but, for all practical purposes, is independent of the length of the trip. Our calculations indicate that, for average or high‐risk drivers, it is always safer to fly than to drive. Furthermore, even for a low‐risk driver, nonstop flying is safer than driving on rural interstate highways for a trip distance of more than 303 miles; the corresponding breakeven distances for flights that involve two and three segments are 606 and 909 miles, respect

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00584.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In many animal model systems for carcinogenesis, well characterized putative premalignant lesions are observed. A much studied example is provided by the enzyme altered foci in rodent hepatocarcinogenesis experiments. In a recent paper, we proposed a method for the quantitative analysis of such premalignant lesions. The model used in that paper assumed that the mean growth of premalignant clones is exponential. However, it has been suggested that such a model is oversimplified. In this paper, we relax the assumption of exponential mean growth. The new model contains one extra parameter that measures departures from exponentiality. Use of the model is illustrated by analysis of ATPase deficient foci in the liver of rats given NNM (N‐nitrosomorpholine) in their drinking water. The analysis suggests that the clonal growth of altered cells is significantly accelerated (superexponential) for nontoxic doses of NNM. Finally, the hazard function of the two‐mutation model for carcinogenesis is briefly discussed under nonexponential (mean) growth of intermediate ce

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00585.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYDETECT is an inexpensive, easy to use, general‐purpose, Monte Carlo simulation program for IBM and compatible personal computers. It can be used to quickly analyze fault trees or functions of random variables. DETECT provides a wide variety of input distributions to choose from and a dependency (correlation) option. The result of the analysis is a probability distribution over the variable of interest. We look forward to further improvements (e.g., graphics, full‐screen editing, ability to inspect intermediate results) that will make DETECT even more useful and attract

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00586.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Book Reviewed in this article:Transportation for the Nuclear IndustryEdited by D. G. Walton and S. M. BlackburnReproductive Health Hazards in the WorkplaceOffice of Technology Assessment Task Force Philadelphia: J.B. Lippincott Co.Metal Speciation: Theory, Analysis and ApplicationEdited by James R. Kramer and Herbert E. Allen ChelseaEnvironmental Hazards: Communicating Risks as a Social ProcessBy Sheldon Krimsky and Alonzo PloughThe Risk Ranking Technique in Decision MakingBy John C. Chicken and Michael R. HaynsDrinking Water and Health: Selected Issues in Risk Assessment, Vol. 9 Safe Drinking Water Committee, Board on Environmental Studies and ToxicologyRisk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental RisksBy John J. Cohrssen and Vincent T. CovelloFilm Badge Dosimetry in Atmospheric Nuclear TestsCommittee on Film Badge Dosimetry in Atmospheric Nuclear Tests

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00587.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00588.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY