摘要:

This paper is primarily concerned with environmental risks arising from utilizing modern technology. Our attention focuses on the interface between policy decisions and regulatory measures. The interface involves not only science and technology but also politics and social values, and perceptions which are deeply rooted in the industrial countries. A case of setting air quality standards and regulatory practices in Japan is studied on the basis of scientific and technological knowledge, economic cost, and subjective judgment of what constitutes an acceptable level of risk or health hazard.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00952.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The objective of informing and educating the public about risk issues seems easy to attain in principle, but, in practice, may be difficult to accomplish. This paper attempts to illustrate why this is so. To be effective, risk communicators must recognize and overcome a number of obstacles that have their roots in the limitations of scientific risk assessment and the idiosyncrasies of the human mind. Doing an adequate job of communicating means finding comprehensible ways of presenting complex technical material that is clouded by uncertainty and inherently difficult to understand. The problems may not be insurmountable, however, if designers of risk information programs are sensitive to the difficulties.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00953.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper explores reasons for difficulties in communicating risks among analysts, the laypublic, media, and regulators. Formulating risk communication problems as decisions involving objectives and alternatives helps to identify strategies for overcoming these difficulties. Several strategies are suggested to achieve risk communication objectives like improving public knowledge about risks and risk management, encouraging risk reduction behavior, understanding public values and concerns, and increasing trust and credibility.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00954.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study examined factors affecting risk estimates and tolerance among persons directly exposed to environmental health risks. Data were gathered from questionnaires distributed at public hearings regarding proposed air pollution standards for an arsenic emitting copper smelter located in Tacoma, Washington. Approximately 80% of the area residents who attended the hearings completed the questionnaires, and the responses of 347 subjects were analyzed. Results indicated that informal risk estimates and risk tolerance were closely associated with judged benefits of the hazard source, acceptance or denial of vulnerability, judgments of exposure voluntariness, and environmental attitudes. Neither factual knowledge of formal risk estimates and proposed standards nor residential distance from the smelter was found to be closely related to risk tolerance or informal risk estimates. Implications of the results are discussed in relation to past and future studies of reactions to risk, and in relation to risk management policy and practice.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00955.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Ade minimisrisk management strategy sets a threshold so that risks below the specified level are defined as trivial and exempted from further consideration. The intended purpose is to help avoid inappropriate and wasteful concern with insignificant low‐level risks. In most instances ade minimisstrategy is likely to have beneficial or innocuous effects, but under certain circumstances large differences may develop between nominal and actualde minimislevels. The potential for such discrepancies illustrates whyde minimis(and all other risk management) strategies should be evaluated on the basis of the portfolio of risks that would accumulate from applying such strategies over time, rather than on the apparent reasonableness of any single instance of applicatio

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00956.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes’Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00957.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The methodology and results reported in this paper are based on an analysis of a hypothetical accident occurring in a two unit power plant with shared systems (i.e., the diesel generator, the emergency service water, and the residual heat removal service water systems). The accident postulated is a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) in one out of two nuclear units in conjunction with a loss of offsite power (LOOP) and a failure of one out of four diesel generators to start. To analyze the intersystem effects, we needed to develop and apply a new methodology, intersystem common cause analysis (ICCA). The ICCA methodology revealed problems which were not identified by the traditional intrasystem failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) performed earlier by the design teams. The first potential problem arises if one unit experiences a LOCA and diesel generator failure while one loop of its residual heat removal system is in the suppression pool cooling mode (SPCM); in this event, it is likely that minimum emergency core cooling system (ECCS) requirements will not be met. The second potential problem arises if a diesel generator fails while both units are simultaneously subjected to a controlled forced shutdown (a LOCA need not be postulated for either unit); in this event, it is likely that one unit will be required to use a heat removal path identified as off‐normal in the final safety analysis report (FSAR) for the two unit plant. These and other potential concerns identified through application of the ICCA presented here were resolved early in the design phas

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00958.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A risk assessment comparing the acute effects of mineral oil and PCB‐askarel dielectric fluids in two transformer sites was performed. The first site has the installation characteristics for a PCB‐askarel‐filled transformer with sprinkler fire protection. A risk comparison is made between two types of transformers (PCB‐askarel‐filled and mineral oil‐filled) for this site. The second site (a vault) has the installation characteristics for a mineral oil‐filled transformer, and a risk comparison is made in a fashion similar to the first site. Risk is expressed in terms of frequencies of one or more acute injuries or fatalities per tra

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00959.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00960.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Book Reviewed in this article:RISK AND REASON. RISK ASSESSMENT IN RELATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MUTAGENS AND CARCINOGENS P. Oftedal and A. Brogger, (eds.)THE MONITORING OF OCCUPATIONAL GENOTOXICANTS M. Sorsa and H. Norppa, (eds.)RISK. MAN‐MADE HAZARDS TO MAN M. G. Cooper, (ed.)READ THE LABEL: REDUCING RISK BY PROVIDING INFORMATION S. G. HaddenMETHODS FOR ESTIMATING RISK OF CHEMICAL INJURY: HUMAN AND NONHUMAN BIOTA AND ECOSYSTEMS V. B. Houk et al., (eds.)TOXIC TERROR E. M. WhelanELEMENTS OF TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT ENVIRON Corporati

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00961.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY