ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01419.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01420.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01421.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01422.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01423.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

An early attempt to measure risk was the 1738 paper of Bernoulli in which he describes the well‐known Saint Petersburg paradox. Subsequent writers have considered this game to draw conclusions about the nature of risk or to test newly devised risk models. We analyze the paradox, evaluate various theories which have been advanced to resolve it, and briefly examine the implications of these theories on the wider area of risk analysi

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01424.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper presents a survey and comparative evaluation of methods which have been developed for the determination of uncertainties in accident consequences and probabilities, for use in probabilistic risk assessment. The methods considered are: analytic techniques, Monte Carlo simulation, response surface approaches, differential sensitivity techniques, and evaluation of classical statistical confidence bounds. It is concluded that only the response surface and differential sensitivity approaches are sufficiently general and flexible for use as overall methods of uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment. The other methods considered, however, are very useful in particular problems.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01425.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study analyzes the risk involved in the chlorine industry in North America. A hypothetical chlorine plant with diaphragm electrolytic cells and a chlorine production of 300,000 metric tons per year was studied. Risk in terms of man‐days lost per year was evaluated for nine stages in the manufacture and distribution of chlorine. The highest risk was found to be “Maintenance of the Chlorine Plant” (37.6% of total man‐days lost per year). “Raw Material Acquisition for Materials in Chlorine Plant” (1.3%) and “Storage of Chlorine at Chlorine Plant” (0.3%) both had very little risk. “Transport of Chlorine to User by Rail, Pipeline, Barge, and Truck Combined” also gave relatively low risk (10.2%), an important result since this risk is involuntary and is the category that usually causes the most concern. The kind of risk evaluation presented here, while relatively new, should be helpful in identifying those areas in industry on which time and money can be spent with maximum ben

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01426.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

U.S. Government agencies have adopted a linear‐no‐threshold dose‐response relationship for chemical carcinogens, and have set up a Carcinogen Assessment Group (CAG) to determine the proportionality constants in these relationships. Their results are summarized for the carcinogenic elements Be, Cr, Ni, As, and Cd. It is shown that when effects are integrated over ∼105years, an atom of these elements in the ground has a reasonable chance (10‐4‐10‐1)of being ingested orally by a human. From this it is shown that, over this time period, producing electricity by coal burning causes 320 fatalities/GWe‐yr and all coal burning in the United States causes 74,000 fatalities/year. Commercial use of these carcinogenic elements causes the following numbers of fatalities/yr: Be–900, Cr–87,000, Ni–10,000, As–62,000, and Cd–230,000. Use of CdS and GaAs photovoltaics would cause 2200 and 66 fatalities/GWe‐yr, respectively, and production of construction materials for photovoltaic arrays would cause 11 fatalities/GWe‐yr through use of coal. The calculational methods are derived from those used in risk assessments of radioactive wastes, and their questionable aspects apply equally to those assessments. It is shown that, contrary to present beliefs, it is much safer to dump these elements into rivers than to bury them in the ground, and by far the safest procedure

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01427.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study examined what lay people mean when they judge the “risk” of activities that involve the potential for accidental fatalities (e.g., hang gliding, living near a nuclear reactor). A sample of German and American students rated the “overall risk” of 14 such activities and provided 3 fatality estimates: the number of fatalities in an “average year,” the individual yearly fatality probability (or odds), and the number of fatalities in a “disastrous accident.” Subjects' fatality estimates were reasonably accurate and only moderately influenced by attitudes towards nuclear energy. Individual fatality probability correlated most highly with intuitive risk ratings. Disaster estimates correlated positively with risk ratings for those activities that had a low fatality probability and a relatively high disaster potential. Annual average fatality rates did not correlate with risk ratings at all. These findings were interpreted in terms of a two‐dimensional cognitive structure. Subjective notions of risk were determined primarily by the personal chance of death; for some activities, “disaster potential” played a secondary role in sh

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01428.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY