ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00133.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00134.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00135.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A cancer risk assessment methodology based upon the Armitage–Doll multistage model of cancer is applied to animal bioassay data. The method utilizes the exact time‐dependent dose pattern used in a bioassay rather than some single measure of dose such as average dose rate or cumulative dose. The methodology can be used to predict risks from arbitrary exposure patterns including, for example, intermittent exposure and short‐term exposure occurring at an arbitrary age. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to a National Cancer Institute bioassay of ethylene dibromide in which dose rates were modified several times during the course of the exper

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00136.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Reliability analysis is the study of both the probability and the process of failure of a system. For that purpose, several tools are available, for example, fault trees, event trees, or the GO technique. These tools are often complementary and address different aspects of the questions. Experience shows that there is sometimes confusion between two of these methods: fault trees and event trees. Sometimes identified as equivalent, they, in fact, serve different purposes. Fault trees lay out relationships among events. Event trees lay out sequences of events linked by conditional probabilities. At least in theory, event trees can handle better notions of continuity (logical, temporal, and physical), whereas fault trees are most powerful in identifying and simplifying failure scenarios. Different characteristics of the system in question (e.g., a dam or a nuclear reactor) may guide the choice between fault trees, event trees, or a combination of the two. Some elements of this choice are examined, and observations are made about the relative capabilities of the two methods.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00137.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Data on the effects of human exposure to carcinogens are limited, so that estimation of the risks of carcinogens must be obtained indirectly. Current risk estimates are generally based on lifetime animal bioassays which are expensive and which take more than two years to complete. We here show how data on acute toxicity can be used to make a preliminary estimate of carcinogenic risk and give an idea of the uncertainty in that risk estimate. The estimates obtained are biased upwards, and so are useful for setting interim standards and determining whether further study is worthwhile. A general scheme which incorporates the use of such estimates is outlined, and it is shown by example how adoption of the procedures suggested could have prevented regulatory hiatus in the past.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00138.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal‐fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effect

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00139.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00140.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00141.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A uranium miner who smokes develops lung cancer: what is the probability that radiation, rather than tobacco, caused it? This paper briefly explains the principles and limits of probability models for which this question makes sense, and then shows how principles of risk accounting can be applied to obtain a solution to the general problem of attributing risk in the presence of joint, possibly interacting, causes. A procedure for calculating each factor's “share” in a jointly caused risk is proposed, and shown to be a generalization of the “probability of causation” concept. Problems of implementation and interpretation for the proposed attribution procedure are discussed, and illustrative error bounds are derived for a simple decision rule, in which probability of causation or attributable risk share calculations are made using aggregate data as a proxy for unknown individu

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00142.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY