ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00155.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00156.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00157.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00158.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper reviews the history of risk analysis and risk management, giving special emphasis to the neglected period prior to the 20th century. The overall objective of the paper is to: (1) dampen the prevailing tendency to view present‐day concerns about risk in an ahistorical context; (2) shed light on the intellectual antecedents of current thinking about risk; (3) clarify how contemporary ideas about risk analysis and societal risk management differ significantly from the past; and (4) provide a basis for anticipating future directions in risk analysis and managemen

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00159.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The U.S. Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence System (C3I) includes sensors (e.g., satellites and radars), communication links, and computer systems that allow gathering and processing of information that a missile attack on the continental United States may be on the way. The choice of a policy of response to such an attack depends in part on the reliability of the information coming from the C3I. We consider in this study four possible response policies: (1) launch on impact, (2) launch on attack assessment, (3) launch under attack, and (4) launch on warning. We propose a method to compute, for each policy, the probability of accidental nuclear strike and the probability of being unable to respond due to a malfunction of the C3I or to partial destruction of the response forces. We include in our system the launch authorization steps (permissive action links) and a very crude analysis of the survivability of second strike forces. We examine the variations of probabilities of Type I and Type II errors and the tradeoffs involved when shifting from a policy of launch on impact to another launch policy. We conclude that this simple but powerful method allows one to gain a good grasp on some of the complex issues involved.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00160.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The perception of the potential risk arising from human exposure to 50/60 Hz electric and magnetic fields was studied with a quasi‐random sample of 116 well‐educated, opinion leaders using the risk perception framework previously developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein. These individuals rated exposure to fields from transmission lines and electric blankets on a variety of scales that have been found useful in characterizing people's risk attitudes and perceptions. These judgments allowed us to conjecture about the likely desire for regulation of these potential hazards and the likely response to a publicized problem (e.g., an accident or ominous research finding) involving these two sources of exposure. Various forms of detailed information about 50/60 Hz fields were supplied to respondents. The provision of information produced modest, but statistically significant, changes in perceptions in the direction of greater concern about the risks. In response to questions of public policy, participants desired modest regulatory control of field exposure from transmission lines and little or no control of field exposure from appliances like electric blank

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00161.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Examination of five animal and one human studies suggest that certain agents increase the incidence of some cancers but simultaneously reduce the incidence of other cancers. Yellow die 3, for example, sharply increases the incidence of liver tumors but practically eliminates naturally occurring leukemia/lymphoma in F‐344 male rates. Such ambiguity in the action of presumed carcinogens suggests that caution must be used by regulatory bodies in proscribing suspected carcinogens, or even in recommending changes in lifestyle or dietary habits as a means of reducing incidence of cance

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00162.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00163.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00164.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY