ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00935.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00936.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

While the event tree is a useful diagrammatic aid to an appreciation of various event sequence possibilities, it is of a nature that suggests no obvious manner in which the associated probability data may be compiled as computer input. Here, we propose a complementary numerical representation of scenario possibilities which incorporates probability data in a succinct fashion. While its mnemonic properties facilitate the logical development of a system's characteristics, its compactness and unambiguity permit its utilization directly as computer input.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00937.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Reactor accident consequence models have been developed (for example, the CRAC model of the Reactor Safety Study (RSS), WASH‐1400) to predict the offsite health and economic consequences of severe accidents at a reactor site with generic demographic and meteorological characteristics. Application of a revised RSS accident consequence model, CRAC2, to 91 existing sites results in a band of risk curves around the earlier WASH‐1400 average reactor/site predictions. This paper examines these calculations and important model assumptions such as population distribution, emergency response, and meteorological data with respect to their effects on site risk extremes—that is, the combination of high consequence/low probability e

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00938.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Using an analogy with costs, risk is split into a fixed and a variable contribution. Based on this concept, the total risk of an interconnected electrical power grid is minimized. The theoretical foundations of the method are explained and illustrated by model calculations.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00939.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data oncore damage accidents in electricity producing plants, it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00940.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In any analysis of a decision problem involving public risks, ethical implications are introduced. In some cases, these ethical implications may be introduced simply because an analysis is being done. Additional ethical implications may be inherently part of the methodology being utilized or introduced into the specific analysis of the decision problem. In this paper, we investigate where and how ethical implications enter when using the methodology of decision analysis to examine problems involving public risks. We conclude that the methodology of decision analysis is sufficiently robust to allow for numerous different ethical viewpoints to be accounted for in any specific analysis. Stated alternatively, decision analyses of public risks can be conducted in a manner consistent with utilitarianism, deontological theories, libertarianism, egalitarianism, and so forth. However, any specific analysis has embedded within it numerous ethical implications. This suggests that the careful ethical scrutiny of analyses involving the methodology of decision analysis should be placed on the specific application and not on the methodology per se or on the fact that an analysis is undertaken.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00941.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Previous work on perceived risk, particularly a study by Fischhoffet al.(1978), is critically examined with reference to its applicability to specific health related issues. Judgments were obtained from 159 subjects of 15 health‐related items in terms of perceived risk, benefit, and a number of risk characteristics based on the Fischhoffet al.research. In addition, demographic details concerning sex of respondent, seat belt usage, smoking status, and birth order were collected. Using regression analyses it was found that the direction of the risk‐benefit relationship was dependent on the issue being judged. Risk was found to be better explained by ratings of likelihood of mishap and likelihood of death as a consequence of mishap. Benefit was poorly explained by the risk characteristics and demographic data. However, subject group characteristics were shown to be important influences on risk and benefit perception in certain situations. The implications of these results for understanding behavioral decisions involving risk in relation to specific activities are discus

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00942.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Experts frequently differ on their estimates of risk associated with accidents that have a low probability of occurrence. Those who stand to benefit from siting a new facility often perceive it as acceptably safe, using expert opinion to defend their argument. Potential losers find data to suggest that the new technology is too hazardous. This paper contrasts the role of risk assessments of low probability events in siting Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. In both cases the decision process was a rather lengthy one due to conflicts between interested stakeholders. The paper discusses the potential of compensation and insurance as policy tools for facilitating negotiation. Four criteria for improving the siting process in any country are also outlined.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00943.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY