ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00178.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00179.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00180.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00181.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00182.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00183.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A probabilistic method is presented to evaluate the economic value of fire monitoring by closed circuit TV camera in petroleum refineries. The proposed model is restricted to the analysis of risk reduction in an area where fires can be caused either by pump failure or by failure of valves and lines. The benefits come from reducing the time during which the fire grows undetected. Fire growth and expected values of losses are analyzed by a Markov model that includes five phases: (1) active undetected growth, (2) detection, (3) fire growth at the beginning of the firemen's intervention, (4) fire control, and (5) fire extinction. The results (e.g., the expected net present value of the investment) show that the proposed monitoring investment is attractive for an illustrative example.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00184.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The risk to human health posed by contaminated soil in a residential area depends on the potential extent of exposure to soil and on the toxic properties of the contaminants. A detailed soil exposure analysis is presented for young children, older children, and adults living in a house surrounded by contaminated soil. From this analysis, a lifetime exposure model is derived and used to assess chronic health risks.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00185.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper considers decision problems where: (1) The exact probability distribution over the states of nature is not precisely known, but certain prior information is available about the possibilities of these outcomes; (2) A prior distribution over the states of nature is known, but new constraint information about the probabilities becomes available. The maximum entropy principle asserts that the probability distribution with maximum entropy, satisfying the prior knowledge, should be used in the decision problem. The minimum cross‐entropy principle says that the posterior distribution is the one which minimizes cross‐entropy, subject to the new constraint information. The entropy principles have not gone uncriticized, and this literature, together with that justifying the principles, is surveyed. Both principles are illustrated in a number of situations where the distribution is either discrete or continuous. The discrete distribution case with prior interval estimates based on expert opinions is considered in det

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00186.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A soft mathematical model, taking stock of the stochastic and cooperative features of the economy of thinking in the decision making, is aggregated to unveil hidden connections between energy policy and the energy technology choices of an establishment. Starting from several assumptions on the nature of the collective decisional behavior, one obtains a probabilistic interpretation of the mechanism of penetration of energy technologies. The probability that the establishment bets on a certain technological profile is given as a solution to a Fokker‐Planck equation accounting for the decision game. It provides a topological variety that accomodates possible states of the system and their trajectories, and indicates ways in which different attractors drive the technology choice in the space of the energy policy.In this framework, a series of concepts (i.e., logistic evolution, resilience, stability, risks of disruption or crisis, energy security) can find in a natural way strikingly intuitive interpretations. Strategic games are possible on this ground, confirming facts of life and also showing predictive power. The complex and difficult to manage interdependence between energy policy and technology appears as a challenge to the long‐term planning of alternative energy systems. To meet the challenge, preparedness for changes through a large freedom of choice on the technological options appears as a necessary complement to the faithful observance of the market drives, which stresses the importance of having available perceptive, coherent, reliable, and responsible mechanisms of decision mak

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00187.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY