ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01090.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01091.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The methods currently used to evaluate the risk of developmental defects in humans from exposure to potential toxic agents do not reflect biological processes in extrapolating estimated risks to low doses and from test species to humans. We develop a mathematical model to describe aspects of the dynamic process of organogenesis, based on branching process models of cell kinetics. The biological information that can be incorporated into the model includes timing and rates of dynamic cell processes such as differentiation, migration, growth, and replication. The dose‐response models produced can explain patterns of malformation rates as a function of both dose and time of exposure, resulting in improvements in risk assessment and understanding of the underlying mechanistic processes. To illustrate the use of the model, we apply it to the prediction of the effects of methylmercury on brain development in rat

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01092.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

People make subjective judgments about hazards relying on what they know and feel. These risk perceptions may be based on accurate or inaccurate information and are often optimistically biased. The existence of uncertainties in the evaluation of many environmental hazards effects how risks are perceived. This paper examines fish consumption and risk perception of urban fishermen in the New York/New Jersey estuary, in areas where there were consumption advisories. We interviewed 318 fishermen and crabbers in the Arthur Kill, Raritan Bay, and New Jersey shore. Fish were eaten an average of at least four times per month in all regions, but fishermen in the Arthur Kill fished most frequently, averaging over eight times per month. Although 60% of fishermen and crabbers in the Arthur Kill reported hearing warnings about consuming fish caught in these waters, 70% of fishermen and 76% of crabbers said they ate their catch. Significantly fewer fishermen in the Bay and Shore regions had heard warnings (28% and 30%, respectively), and more reported consuming their catch (88% and 82%, respectively). In all regions, most people thought that the fish were safe to eat, many believing they were “fresher” than store bought fish. Thus, most people ignored the consumption advisories in effect for these waters. Some of these people are consuming high quantities of fish and crabs, and thus are exposed to potentially deleterious levels of contaminants. In general, people failed to consider the possibility of chronic effects and did not perceive that this enjoyable, familiar pastime could be hazardous. Further, fishermen generally had great confidence in their own knowledge, which proved to be inaccurate in many cases, and often expressed distrust in the information source (government). Clearly, simply issuing consumption advisories is insufficient to promote risk‐reducing beh

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01093.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Trust in risk information about food related‐hazards may be an important determinant of public reactions to risk information. One of the central questions addressed by the risk communication literature iswhysome individuals and organizations are trusted as sources of risk information and others are not. Industry and government often lack public trust, whereas other sources (for example, consumer organizations, the quality media, medical doctors) are highly trusted. Problematically, previous surveys and questionnaire studies have utilized questions generated by the investigators themselves to assess public perceptions of trust in different sources. Furthermore, no account of the hazard domain was made. In the first study reported here, semistructured interviewing was used to elicit underpinning constructs determining trust and distrust in different sources providing food‐related risk information (n= 35). In the second study, the repertory grid method was used to elicit the terminology that respondents use to distinguish between different potential food‐related information sources (n= 35), the data being submitted to generalised Procrustes analysis. The results of the two studies were combined and validated in survey research (n= 888) where factor analysis indicated that knowledge in itself does not lead to trust, but that trusted sources are seen to be characterised by multiple positive attributes. Contrary to previous research, complete freedom does not lead to trust—rather sources which possess moderate accountability are seen to be the most

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01094.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this paper, we discuss the conduct and results of a study aimed at eliciting public perceptions of food‐related hazards. This study employs the psychometric approach of Paul Slovic and colleagues and aims to extend the recent work of Sparks and Shepherd(1)on defining the primary dimensions of food‐related risk perceptions. The study surveyed a nationally representative sample of the general public (respondents = 293; adjusted response rate = 30.1%). Respondents provided ratings on subsets of 22 potential food hazards (e.g., food irradiation and presence of listeria) on a total of 19 risk characteristics (e.g., “perceived severity of risk” and “adequacy of governmental regulations”). In spite of the use of a number of new characteristics and food hazards, Principal Components Analysis revealed a broadly similar factor structure to that obtained by Sparks and Shepherd,(1)suggesting the generalizability of the key dimensions (concerning the severity and awareness of hazards). Interestingly, the positioning in the factor space of potential hazards about which little was generally known (e.g., campylobacter) as being serious and in need of regulation, may suggest a possible “starting position” in the perception of new hazards that have not previously been the subject of risk

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01095.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Complex engineered systems, such as nuclear reactors and chemical plants, have the potential for catastrophic failure with disastrous consequences. In recent years, human and management factors have been recognized as frequent root causes of major failures in such systems. However, classical probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques do not account for the underlying causes of these errors because they focus on the physical system and do not explicitly address the link between components' performance and organizational factors. This paper describes a general approach for addressing the human and management causes of system failure, called the SAM (System‐Action‐Management) framework. Beginning with a quantitative risk model of the physical system, SAM expands the scope of analysis to incorporate first the decisions and actions of individuals that affect the physical system. SAM then links management factors (incentives, training, policies and procedures, selection criteria, etc.) to those decisions and actions. The focus of this paper is on four quantitative models of action that describe this last relationship. These models address the formation of intentions for action and their execution as a function of the organizational environment. Intention formation is described by three alternative models: a rational model, a bounded rationality model, and a rule‐based model. The execution of intentions is then modeled separately. These four models are designed to assess the probabilities of individual actions from the perspective of management, thus reflecting the uncertainties inherent to human behavior. The SAM framework is illustrated for a hypothetical case of hazardous materials transportation. This framework can be used as a tool to increase the safety and reliability of complex technical systems by modifying the organization, rather than, or in addition to, re‐designing the physical

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01096.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Utilizing the concept of environmental justice, this paper examines the differential burdens of toxic and hazardous waste facilities locations in low income minority communities. The association between the presence of facilities and socioeconomic characteristics of places are examined for the state of South Carolina at three different spatial scales: counties, census tracts, and census block groups. Three different types of hazardous waste/toxic facilities are also examined: Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) sites, Treatment, Storage, and Disposal sites (TSD), and inactive hazardous waste sites. At the county level, there was some association between the presence of toxic/hazardous waste facilities and race and income. In South Carolina, this translates to a disproportionate burden on White, more affluent communities in metropolitan areas, rather than low income minority communities. At both the census tract and block group levels, there is no association between race and the location of toxic/hazardous waste facilities. There are slight differences in the income levels between tracts and block groups with facilities and those without. This localized ecology of hazard sources must be expanded to include emission/discharge data in order to adequately address environmental justice issues on who bears the burdens of environmental contamination.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01097.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

An adverse health impact is often treated as a binary variable (response vs. no response), in which case the risk of response is defined as a monotonically increasing functionRof the dose receivedD.For a population of sizeN, specifying the forms ofR(D)and of the probability density function (pdf) forDallows determination of the pdf for risk, and computation of the mean and variance of the distribution of incidence, where the latter parameters are denotedE[SN] and Var[SN], respectively. The distribution ofSNdescribes uncertainty in the future incidence value. Given variability in dose (and risk) among population members, the distribution of incidence is Poisson‐binomial. However, depending on the value ofE[SN], the distribution of incidence is adequately approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter μ=E[SN], or by a normal distribution with mean and variance equal toE[SN] and Var[SN]. The general analytical framework is applied to occupational infection byMycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb).Tuberculosis is transmitted by inhalation of 1–5 μm particles carrying viableM. tbbacilli. Infection risk has traditionally been modeled by the expression:R(D)= 1 – exp(–D), whereDis the expected number of bacilli that deposit in the pulmonary region. This model assumes that the infectious dose is one bacillus. The beta pdf and the gamma pdf are shown to be reasonable and especially convenient forms for modeling the distribution of the expected cumulative dose across a large healthcare worker cohort. Use of the the analytical framework is illustrated by estimating the efficacy of different respiratory protective devices in reducing healthcare worker infec

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01098.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The current methods for a reference dose (RfD) determination can be enhanced through the use of biologically‐based dose‐response analysis. Methods developed here utilizes information from tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐dioxin (TCDD) to focus on noncancer endpoints, specifically TCDD mediated immune system alterations and enzyme induction. Dose‐response analysis, using the Sigmoid‐Emax (EMAX) function, is applied to multiple studies to determine consistency of response. Through the use of multiple studies and statistical comparison of parameter estimates, it was demonstrated that the slope estimates across studies were very consistent. This adds confidence to the subsequent effect dose estimates. This study also compares traditional methods of risk assessment such as the NOAEL/safety factor to a modified benchmark dose approach which is introduced here. Confidence in the estimation of an effect dose (ED10) was improved through the use of multiple datasets. This is key to adding confidence to the benchmark dose estimates. In addition, the Sigmoid‐Emax function when applied to dose‐response data using nonlinear regression analysis provides a significantly improved fit to data increasing confidence in parameter estimates which subsequently improve effect

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01099.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1996

数据来源: WILEY