ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00460.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00461.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00462.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00463.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A methodology is presented for assessing the risk from Canadian uranium mill tailings piles. The methodology is based on the “set of triplets” concept and uses an event tree to identify various scenarios representing the performance of a pile over its 1,000‐year design life. Compartment‐type mathematical models are used to quantify the movement of hazardous substances through the environment. Numerical examples are given of both “level 1” (straight probabilistic) and “level 2” (probability of frequency

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00464.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Considerable controversy exists about the relative risk of thyroid cancer following exposure to external radiation compared to the risk after exposure to internally deposited131I. The human epidemiological data are equivocal, and studies are not directly comparable owing to differing ages at exposure, dose ranges, and periods of follow‐up. Limited experimental data at low dose ranges support the hypothesis of equal potency in animals. This report utilizes a relative potency model to reconcile data from different sources, and to provide an estimate of thyroid cancer risk following human exposure to131I. We utilize data from epidemiological studies of external radiation and131I exposure in humans and data from an experimental animal study. This analysis shows that the data provide no compelling evidence to suggest that the risks accompanying external radiation or131I exposure are differen

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00465.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Although unpublicized, the use of quantitative safety goals and probabilistic reliability analysis for licensing nuclear reactors has become a reality in the United Kingdom. This conclusion results from an examination of the process leading to the licensing of the Sizewell B PWR in England. The licensing process for this reactor has substantial implications for nuclear safety standards in Britain, and is examined in the context of the growing trend towards quantitative safety goals in the United States.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00466.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this paper a systemic or national approach to cost‐effectiveness analysis of risk‐reduction measures is reviewed, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied to the problem of the cost‐effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 NPP containment wall thickness from the present 60 cm to 180 cm thick in order to prevent damage to the reactor core in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. It is concluded that this measure is not cost‐effective if the referred approach is con

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00467.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The estimation of plant accident rates and component failure rates is addressed within the framework of a parametric empirical Bayes approach. The observables, the numbers of failures recorded in various similar systems, obey the Poisson probability law. The parameters of a common gamma prior distribution are determined by a special moment matching method such that the results are consistent with classical (fiducial) confidence limits. Relations between Bayesian, classical, and Stein's estimation are discussed. The theory of the method is fully developed, although the suggested procedure itself is relatively simple. Solutions exist and they are in allowed ranges for all practical cases, including small samples and clustered data. They are also unbiased for large samples. Numerical examples are analyzed to illustrate the method and to allow comparisons with other methods.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00468.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The effect of using the average dose rate over a lifetime as a representative measure of exposure to carcinogens is investigated by comparing the true theoretical multistage intermittent‐dosing lifetime low‐dose excess risk to the theoretical multistage continuous‐dosing lifetime risk corresponding to the average lifetime dose rate. It is concluded that low‐dose risk estimates based on the average lifetime dose rate may overestimate the true risk by several orders of magnitude, but that they never underestimate the true risk by more than a factor ofk/r, wherekis the total number of stages in the multistage model andris the number of stages that are dose

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00469.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY