摘要:

Three experimental studies were conducted employing hypothetical news stories to compare the effects on reader risk perceptions of two situations: when agency communication behavior was reported to be responsive to citizens’ risk concerns, vs. when the agency was reported to be unresponsive. In the first two experiments, news stories of public meetings filled with distrust and controversy led to ratings indicating greater perceived risk than news stories reporting no distrust or controversy, even though the risk information was held constant. This effect appeared clearly when the differences in meeting tone were extreme and subjects made their ratings from their recall of the stories, but it was much weaker when the differences were moderate and subjects were allowed to go back over the news stories to help separate risk information from conflict information. In the third experiment, news stories about a spill cleanup systematically varied the seriousness of the spill, the amount of technical information provided in the story, and the agency behavior and resulting community outrage. The outrage manipulation significantly affected affective and cognitive components of perceived risk, but not hypothetical behavioral intentions. Seriousness and technical detail had very little effect on perceived ris

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01321.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this paper we compare expectations derived from 10 different human physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for perchloroethylene with data on absorption via inhalation, and concentrations in alveolar air and venous blood. Our most interesting finding is that essentially all of the models show a time pattern of departures of predictions of air and blood levels relative to experimental data that might be corrected by more sophisticated model structures incorporating either (a) heterogeneity of the fat compartment (with respect to either perfusion or partition coefficients or both) or (b) intertissue diffusion of perchloroethylene between the fat and muscle/VRG groups. Similar types of corrections have recently been proposed to reduce analogous anomalies in the fits of pharmacokinetic models to the data for several volatile anesthetics.(17‐20)A second finding is that models incorporating resting values for alveolar ventilation in the region of 5.4 L/min seemed to be most compatible with the most reliable set of perchloroethylene uptake dat

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01322.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A comprehensive approach to managing risk must draw on both the descriptive insights of the behavioral sciences and the prescriptive clarity of the management sciences. On the descriptive side, this study develops structural models to explain how the impact upon society of an accident or other unfortunate event is influenced by the physical consequences of the event, perceived risk, media coverage, and public response. Our findings indicate that the media and public response play crucial roles in determining the impact of an unfortunate event. Public response appears to be determined by perceptions that the event was caused by managerial incompetence and is a signal of future risk. On the prescriptive side, we briefly discuss how these findings based upon structural models can be incorporated into a decision‐analytic procedure known as an influence diagra

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01323.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper introduces conditional influence diagrams into risk management. A contaminated‐site cleanup involving two stakeholders is used as a hypothetical case study. The treatment choices must satisfy several conflicting objectives. Any decision made by one stakeholder will affect the choices of the other stakeholder. In building the influence diagrams for each of the stakeholders, the logical relationship of all relevant factors is determined and the values of these factors are analyzed. The influence diagram for each stakeholder is conditional on the options available to the other stakeholder. The influence diagrams are, then, used to evaluate the possible choices of each stakeholder based on decision options of the other stakeholder. These results are analyzed using game theory methods to gain insights useful to risk management and to demonstrate how mutual trust and cooperation can lead to decisions benefiting both stakeholder

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01324.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Lifetime cancer potency of alfatoxin was assessed based on the Yehet al.study from China in which both aflatoxin exposure and hepatitis B prevalence were measured. This study provides the best available information for estimating the carcinogenic risk posed by aflatoxin to the U.S. population. Cancer potency of aflatoxin was estimated using a biologically motivated risk assessment model. The best estimate of aflatoxin potency was 9 (mg/kg/day)−1for individuals negative for hepatitis B and 230 (mg/kg/day)−1for individuals positive for hepatiti

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01325.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A questionnaire with items that had been used in a national survey of the general public was administered to persons attending an American Nuclear Society meeting. The items asked about risks associated with high‐level nuclear waste (HLNW), trust in nuclear‐waste program managers, costs and benefits of a repository project, and images of a HLNW repository. The results suggest that nuclear industry experts may have very different opinions from the general public about most of these items and their images of a repository indicate a vastly different conceptual framework within which their opinions are for

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01326.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Social equity has become an important concern of the environmental movement over the past decade. The equity issue is analyzed here for practically all of the inactive hazardous waste disposal sites on the National Priorities List (NPL) regulated under the Comprehensive Response Compensation and Liability Act and its 1986 Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (CERCLA/ SARA). Two dimensions of equity are emphasized, namely, site location relative to the location of minority populations and the distribution of cleanup plans or Records of Decision (ROD) across communities with NPL sites that have different socioeconomic characteristics. With respect to site location, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics aggregated at the Census Place or MCD level in communities with NPL sites was greater than is typical nationwide (largely attributable to the concentration of minority populations in a few large urban areas with NPL sites). In contrast, the percentage of the population below the poverty line in communities with NPL sites largely matched that of the nation as a whole. With respect to site cleanup, communities with relatively higher percentages of racial minority populations have fewer cleanup plans (Records of Decision signed) than other communities with NPL sites. Whether a ROD exists is influenced by when the site was designated for the NPL: sites designated earlier (prior to the SARA amendments of 1986) are more likely to have RODs, and also less likely to have high proportions of racial minority populations than sites designated later. This implies that initially the designation process may have resulted in NPL sites being located disproportionately in minority areas, but this pattern seems to be reversing itself in more recently designated sites. As with any statistical analysis, these findings are findings of association and not causality. Thus, racial and ethnic disproportionalities with respect to inactive hazardous waste site location seem to be concentrated in a relatively few areas. Disproportionalities with respect to cleanup do exist, but appear to be more a function of the nature of the process of designation of NPL sites in the early 1980s rather than a result of actions connected with cleanup plans per se. Further investigations are needed at alternative geographic scales to discern the sensitivity of patterns of inequity to distance from the sites.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01327.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Exposure to methylene chloride induces lung and liver cancers in mice. The mouse bioassay data have been used as the basis for several cancer risk assessments.(1,2)The results from epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to methylene chloride have been mixed with respect to demonstrating an increased cancer risk. The results from a negative epidemiologic study of Kodak workers have been used by two groups of investigators to test the predictions from the EPA risk assessment models.(3,4)These two groups used very different approaches to this problem, which resulted in opposite conclusions regarding the consistency between the animal model predictions and the Kodak study results. The results from the Kodak study are used to test the predictions from OSHA's multistage models of liver and lung cancer risk. Confidence intervals for the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) from the Kodak study are compared with the predicted confidence intervals derived from OSHA's risk assessment models. Adjustments for the “healthy worker effect,” differences in length of follow‐up, and dosimetry between animals and humans were incorporated into these comparisons. Based on these comparisons, we conclude that the negative results from the Kodak study are not inconsistent with the predictions from OSHA's risk assessment

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01328.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and overt conflict have become pervasive. Risk‐perception research has recently begun to provide a new perspective on this problem. Distrust in risk analysis and risk management plays a central role in this perspective. According to this view, the conflicts and controversies surrounding risk management are not due to public ignorance or irrationality but, instead, are seen as a side effect of our remarkable form of participatory democracy, amplified by powerful technological and social changes that systematically destroy trust. Recognizing the importance of trust and understanding the “dynamics of the system” that destroys trust has vast implications for how we approach risk management in the f

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01329.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01330.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY