ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01372.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01373.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01374.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The field of comparative risk analysis of electrical energy alternatives has traditionally been plagued by highly uncertain estimates of risk rates, and consequently by conflicting judgements of relative risk. To the extent that this uncertainty arises from traditional sources–imperfect observations or actual variance in the data–it can be brought within a Bayesian statistical framework which allows policy conclusions to be formulted and tested at different levels of confidence. It is shown that there are important methodological or “artifactual” sources of uncertainty, however, that cannot be treated by statistical means; these require conceptual advances for their resolution. By identifying these sources of uncertainty in simple thought experiments and examples, it is shown in what ways the concept ofattributablerisk, which is the policy‐maker's chief concern, must be sharpened and refined to have unambiguous meaning. The conventional “multilinear” formula for calculating risk indices is challenged as a measure of attributable risk, and directions for further research to improve the methodological foundations of comparative risk analysis a

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01375.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A matrix formulation is described and numerically illustrated to calculate the public risk and identify the dominant contributors to it arising from the operation of a nuclear power plant. The matrix methodology is used as a superstructure in a probabilistic risk‐assessment study to organize the calculated probabilities and to facilitate the analysis and documentation effort. The matrix structure is built to manipulate the large amount of data arising from event and fault‐tree analysis and other supporting analyses. It lends itself easily to computerization and provides an analytic capability to identify dominant contributors to risk. It is a useful tool for aiding sensitivity analyses and also a potential formalism for standardization of risk‐assessment studies. This tool is already used in the two recent comprehensive nuclear power plant risk‐assessment efforts, the Zion and Indian Point Safety

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01376.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A survey of recently proposed threshold criteria for regulatory action on light water reactors (LWRs) is presented together with some commentary. This is followed by a new proposal for threshold action criteria which includes some different risk attributes than are found in previous criteria. Some preliminary risk values are suggested for the criteria and then evaluated in terms of a few hypothetical accident scenarios. Finally, several licensing issues are examined in terms of various threshold action criteria.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01377.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Implicit in the operation of a toxic‐gas pipeline is the possibility of an accidental release, which could have serious consequences if upwind of a nearby populated area. Concern for public safety leads to the establishment of isolation corridors or buffer zones to reduce and control the hazard to human settlements. Although “worst case” or “average case” are often used in the determination of safe distances, a probabilistic approach (risk analysis) is superior because it identifies important factors, it makes maximum use of available data, it allows comparison of alternatives, and it quantifies intuitive risk considerations. To illustrate the method, a risk model developed for sour gas pipelines in the Province of Alberta, Canada is outlined and an actual risk‐distance curve is presented. The current zoning regulations in Alberta are

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01378.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A probabilistic language based on stochastic models of population growth is proposed for a standard language to be used in environmental assessment. Environmental impact on a population is measured by the probability of quasiextinction. Density‐dependent and independent models are discussed. A review of one‐dimensional stochastic population growth models, the implications of environmental autocorrelation, finite versus “infinite” time results, age‐structured models, and Monte Carlo simulations are included. The finite time probability of quasiextinction is presented for the logistic model. The sensitivity of the result with respect to the mean growth rate and the amplitude of environmental fluctuations are examined. Stochastic models of population growth form a basis for formulating reasonable criteria for environmental impact

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01379.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Nonlinear hazard models are used to examine temporal trends in the age‐specific mortality risks of chronic obstructive lung diseases for the U.S. population. These hazard functions are fit to age‐specific mortality rates for 1968 and 1977 for four race/sex groups. Changes in the parameters of these models are used to assess two types of differences in the age pattern of the rates between 1968 and 1977. The first measure of trend in the age‐specific mortality rates is the temporal change in the proportionality constant in the function used to model their age variation. By allowing only this proportionality parameter to vary between 1968 and 1977, it is possible to determine an age‐constant percentage increase or decrease. The second measure reflects the absolute displacement in terms of years of life of the fitted mortality curves for the two time points. This second index can be interpreted as the acceleration or deceleration of mortality risks over the life span, i.e., the number of years that is needed for mortality rates to achieve the same level as in the comparison group. The analysis showed that the age changes in chronic obstructive lung disease mortality rates differed by race/sex group and for both measures of change over the period. Adjustment of the fitted curves for the effects of individual variability in risk was significant for three of four

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01380.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In 1980, the U.S. Supreme Court vacated a revised occupational standard for benzene, stating that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) had failed to demonstrate that significant health risks existed under the current standard. This decision has been interpreted by OSHA as requiring the consideration of quantitative risk assessments, whenever possible, in the development of regulations for occupational carcinogens. In light of this decision, the available epidemiologic evidence was used to generate a quantitative risk assessment for benzene. Uncertainties regarding the levels and lengths of benzene exposure for the studied cohorts were incorporated into the analysis. Based on the one‐hit model, the assessment indicates that a working lifetime exposure to benzene at the current permissible exposure level (10 ppm) poses a substantial excess risk of death from leukemia. This report discusses the calculation of the risk estimates, the basis for relying on certain assumptions, and the inherent limitations of using epidemiologic studies to quantify cancer risk

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01381.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY