ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01036.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01037.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01038.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01039.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01040.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01041.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01042.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Three groups of lay opinion leaders were used in a group role‐playing decision exercise designed to explore problems in public risk management decision‐making. The application domain was possible risks from the 60 Hz electric and magnetic fields associated with high‐voltage power transmission lines. While there were differences in the make‐up and dynamics of the three groups, the structure and substantive content of the tasks undertaken dominated intergroup variation in terms of the factors that were most important to group members' decisions. The groups displayed sophistication in their identification of decision attributes and in many of the arguments they advanced, but experienced difficulties in structuring and making trade‐offs and decisions. The groups were not good at normalizing or otherwise manipulating quantitative information, and used it largely in the form it was received. Upper‐bound risk estimates were treated operationally in most group discussions as expected values. Several kinds of strong framing effects were observed in the use of cost and risk information. Specific quantitative results obtained must be treated with care but may provide a starting place for further work on the acceptable level of transmissio

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01043.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Quantifying safety goals is a key to the regulation of activities which are beneficial on the whole but entail some risks in being performed. Determining compliance with safety goals involves dealing with uncertainties. A recent article by Bier(I)describes some of the difficulties encountered using measures with uncertainty to determine compliance with safety goals for nuclear reactors. This paper uses a hierarchical Bayes approach to address two practical modeling problems in determining safety goal compliance under uncertainty: (1) allowing some modeling assumptions to be relaxed, and (2) allowing data from previous related samples to be included in the analysis. The two issues effect each other to the extent that relaxing some assumptions allows the use of a broader range of data. The usefulness of these changes and their impact on assessing safety compliance for nuclear reactors is shown.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01044.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In attempts to soothe the nascent fear of the scheduled airline traveler, passengers waiting takeoff are sometimes reminded of the cliche that they may have already completed the most dangerous part of their trip — the drive to the airport. The objective of this paper is to communicate under what conditions air travel is indeed safer than highway travel and vice versa. The conventional wisdom among risk communicators that air travel is so much safer than car travel arises from the most widely quoted death rates per billion miles for each — 0.6 for air compared to 24 for road. There are three reasons why such an unqualified comparison of aggregated fatality rates is inappropriate. First, the airline rate is passenger fatalities per passenger mile, whereas the road rate is all fatalities (any occupants, pedestrians, etc.) per vehicle mile. Second, road travel that competes with air travel is on the rural interstate system, not on average roads. Third, driver and vehicle characteristics, and driver behavior, lead to car‐driver risks that vary over a wide range. Expressions derived to compare risk for drivers with given characteristics to those on airline trips of given distance showed that 40‐year‐old, belted, alcohol‐free drivers of cars 700 pounds heavier than average are slightly less likely to be killed in 600 miles of rural interstate driving than in airline trips of the same length. Compared to this driver, 18‐year‐old, unbelted, intoxicated, male drivers of cars 700 pounds lighter than average have a risk over 1000 times greater. Furthermore, it is shown that the cliche above is untrue for a group of drivers having the age distribution of air

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01045.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY